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2011 Amateur Draft

Talk shop about the various prospects and teams that make up the Cleveland Indians organization.

Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sun May 29, 2011 8:54 am

@ entertheshoe I'll try to fix it. Not sure why it post that way.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sun May 29, 2011 9:37 am

@ rocky 55 here's one article I was referring too. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/05/d ... bauer.html
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Sun May 29, 2011 10:02 am

homerawayfromhome wrote:Where did he play the other night? Look personally I don't care where he ends up, he won't be here... I did say he could have Uggla potential with his stick, that's good for a 2b or 3baseman. Have you really not read an article that said Rendon could end up at 2b. I'm not concerned with his height... His shldr and ankles (combo w/ height) is the problem potentially and 2b is considered a less demanding position than third. Did you see I also mention Jed Bradley, and Javier Baez. If the injuries persist Rendons career not just position could be in jeopardy. I'll try to post an article from a cpl days ago on Mlbtraderumors.com. Guess I should have said injuries too, assumed every body knew about those... That's his biggest knock... Not his height. But I will suggest he's injury prone.

Sorry, didn't mean to sound touchy. Thanks for the link, I hadn't seen anyone mention a position switch before, other than you. There is no reason to move Rendon other than injury, as the link you provided rightfully notes that he's a "tremendous defender at third". I think he has more value at 3B. I'm also not convinced that playing 2B leads to less strain on a player's arm. Just the opposite in fact. A 2B throws from more odd angles, moving away from 1B, from behind second base, from short right, on relays, etc. A 3B has the across the body throw coming in on bunts & long throws deep behind the bag, but that's it. Also, making the pivot, avoiding runners trying to break up the DP, would seem to endanger fragile ankles more than playing 3B. A premium defender at 3B with a bat like Rendon's is invaluable. If Hanahan could hit he'd be Zimmerman.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Sun May 29, 2011 12:47 pm

Just some random observations;

Bauer and Cole at UCLA are getting a lot of attention, but this freshman Adam Plutko is a really good pitching prospect in his own right. Definitely someone to watch in coming years.

I get the feeling there will be some surprises in the draft. There's not a huge disparity between the prospect status of guys where the Indians are drafting. Obviously there always are surprises, but I can see some stuff happening that definitely wasn't forecasted by others.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sun May 29, 2011 1:35 pm

Rendon has a great bat and truly why he's considered a top 3-4 prospect. The shldr is a concern as it would be if he were a pitcher. The defense at third is a plus, he does have very good d on the corner from my perspective a guy on either corner is there for a number of reasons... Great d and strong arm at 3rd with power potential but when you take those possibilities away he becomes less of a prospect. I say that slightly bc of his bat is that good. If not for injuries I believe he would be the first pk, but when you consider them... With his height (for some) he looks the part of a 2b. He may very well be a 3baseman for several yrs IMO he converts over at some point. We are talking about an AllStar caliber bat at either and he would easily be among the best w/ the bat at 2b. Only time and injuries (recovery) will tell.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sun May 29, 2011 9:39 pm

Heres a link from MLB.com it's an article on some of the arms the tribe is looking at.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd ... d=19666200
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Sun May 29, 2011 11:14 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:Heres a link from MLB.com it's an article on some of the arms the tribe is looking at.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd ... d=19666200


During the Indians game today, I got bored b/c they sucked and I viewed a lot of videos of high school arms on MLB draft tracker. They still don't have all videos up (I'm guessing) b/c a lot of letters in the alphabet aren't covered yet, but I had a few observations. I also graded them and might post my grades later this week. I don't follow high school baseball so I went in cold turkey on the majority of guys. Had some fun with it.

Archie Bradley looks like the real deal. I like him more than Bundy.

One of the guys I graded out as a 1st round talent was John Curtiss (rhp from Texas). I checked BA's list afterward and saw he was rated #132 overall. I'm just basing this off a 30 second clip, but I think you can gauge talent and upside well in these videos. You definitely miss some important stuff, but this rating by BA is a head scratcher for me.

Also liked what I saw from Kevin Comer (New Jersey, rhp). Very good arm action; projectable. Seems undervalued.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Mon May 30, 2011 7:18 am

IMO this should be a yr the Tribe loads up on some high schoolers. The upper levels are loaded with pitching possibly go college arm in rd 1 but I think they should consider some of the prep guys in rd 1 too. They may be hard signs but this team doesn't need 25-30 guys 15-20 would do. It would give some of these guys time to develop no need to rush them but also provide them time to mature. Personally I think that's why we see some guys like Haley struggle, needs to mature physically and mentally. I'm all about slowing their progression down by letting them play in AZ, then Mahoning Valley the nxt season. But these guys need challenged and some are ready to move along rather qkly.

The tribe really needs to add some real prospects that are position players, I definitely like a guy like Francisco Lindor (17) and Javier Baez maybe Blake Swihart and Josh Bell (says he's going to school). The more I look into Lindor and Baez the more I like them. Recently saw a mock with Baez at 7. No way Dbax go prep guy at 7 (think they might at 3 -Bundy-). A guy I like who could be there rd 2/3 Trevor Story a hs SS from Tx.

No matter the stragedy the tribe is dealing or picking from strength... Adding to an already deep farm system. There's obviously a cpl approaches they can take I don't think they change the approach now, but the tribe went all in on the draft last yr and likely implement the same plan.

Consider this some top arms like... Rondon, APerez, Aviles, Knapp, Stowell haven't stepped on the mound in an affiliate yet. Wow that's some deep pitching.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby JP_Frost » Mon May 30, 2011 10:33 am

I think it's very unlikely we'll see a HS player drafted by us in the first round. Most likely picks:

Trevor Bauer (if available)
Sonny Gray
Matt Barnes
Alex Meyer
Jed Bradley
Taylor Jungmann

Right now, I'd put my money on Gray or Barnes.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby daingean » Mon May 30, 2011 10:44 am

homerawayfromhome wrote:No matter the stragedy the tribe is dealing or picking from strength... Adding to an already deep farm system. There's obviously a cpl approaches they can take I don't think they change the approach now, but the tribe went all in on the draft last yr and likely implement the same plan.


I am not sure the Tribe will go "all in" this year. They are leading the division and may keep a reserve for the major league team if they need a piece at the trade deadline. That being said much of the reinfocements at the ML level will be from AAA but 1 piece can be the difference in their budget of signing a Wolters like 3rd round pick (above slot).
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Hermie13 » Mon May 30, 2011 11:51 am

Rendon going to 2B is a lot like Washington playing 2B last year in Chipola. It's about his shoulder. If his shoulder is healthy, Levon is playing the OF. Rendon is a 3B. He'll stay there unless the injuries force him to move to 2B.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Mon May 30, 2011 12:05 pm

I'm not so sure... I can't see them leaving a prospect on the table so to speak. Though it's possible. If there's a guy they like I think they will ante up and sign him only after Dolan okays it. I believe Dolan is trying to be conservative (maybe cheap) but not appear it in acq. (cheaper) talent. It is a good point, contention could cost a guy or two. Read some comments where Shapiro said they would not give up prospects to get the parts they need. Not sure if he meant look inward for solutions or if they make trades it won't include guys the team is really high on.

I like Sonny Gray, could be a nice bullpen arm or middle rotation starter. I do think he can be a starter but I believe it limits his upside. Maybe a 3 starter or lockdown closer if I had to choose between those 2 I'd take the closer not conventional but a lights out pen arm can shorten games. 3 starters aren't that hard to find. All this said I prefer Matt Barnes. I believe Barnes is going to be a 2 but if he flops is a bullpen arm. Overall IMO Gray is not worth the 8th pk unless a team thinks he's at least a 2 starter. Barnes has better upside and is ready qkly as well.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Tondo » Mon May 30, 2011 12:33 pm

Still don't get the fascination with HS pitchers in the 1st round...in mid and late rounds? Sure, go for it and go over slot but in the 1st?

What you hoping for? That in 2-3 years this HS youngster (with millions in his account...you guys undersetimate the de-motivation of this fact for a 18yo) pitches at 2ERA level against good College competition (or A ball)? Well, if that's what you "hope for", why not just draft a guy who's been there, done that (ie Jungmann had ERAs of 2, 2 and 1...at Texas)...I really don't get the fascination with "upside" early in the draft....only HS prospect I'd consider at 8 is A.Bradley because he has something special and IS already more advanced

I have my top 5 set already:

1. Bauer
2. Hultzen
3. Jungmann
4. A.Bradley
5. Barnes

I'd be happy with any of these...if we go bat I'd be ok and kinda "understand" if we go Springer. I want no part of Jed Bradley (no sub 3.5ERA or 1.1 WHIP in 3 college years? no thanks) or Lindor (please no HS bat in top 10)...

Sonny Gray has some Alex White to him....good stuff, command issues, worst case a good reliever...in many drafts I'd be ok with a guy like that but not in this one and not at 8....it wouldn't be horrible as the stuff is there but I'd still be disappointed

If we get 1 of the top 5 and RHP Noe Ramirez (official Noe Ramirez pimp !) in any other round....that would be a start :yahoo: Seriously, if we take a re-draft like B.Smith or Goforth over him I'll be fuming

Nobody on here talking about this kid, so I thought I might get your attention to him...I don't think he'll last to our 3rd rounder so I'd make sure and get him with our 2nd if he's still there but if we go P in the 1st we will go bat in the 2nd for sure...ah, just get me Noe Ramirez :shout:
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Mon May 30, 2011 2:17 pm

I wouldn't call it fascination but nonetheless their are some good hs arms that are as good or potentially better than some of the college.
Dylan Bundy is the best hs arm. Archie Bradley very very close second. Taylor Guerrieri not as polished IMO but sits 98 already. Jose Fernandez is a top caliber arm some questions on him though. Hits 98 and has some good off speed stuff. Tyler Beede, Robert Stevenson a cpl other hs arms could go rd 1. IMO Bundy, ABradley and Fernandez will be qk movers, see them nearly as qk as some these college arms. Good yr for pitching.
College arms. Hultzen is top of the class Gerrit Cole reportedly hit 101 the other day has potential ace stuff. Trevor Bauer unorthodox but talented, Matt Barnes hits 98 and has got better every yr. Taylor Jungmann solid pitcher.

Have heard of Noe Ramirez, hits 95-96 cal state Fullerton also played 1b where he has showed pop.
Trevor Bauer
Archie Bradley
Matt Barnes
Javier Baez
Francisco Lindor
That's 5 guys I like.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Tondo » Mon May 30, 2011 5:15 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:Have heard of Noe Ramirez, hits 95-96 cal state Fullerton also played 1b where he has showed pop.


Think you're confusing him with LHP NICK Ramirez, who plays 1B too at Cal St Full....Noe Ramirez doesn't have a blazing FB, that's why he isn't a 1st rounder...he has everything else and his FB has gained velo last year...he has great stats, a nice arsenal of pitches, good control...skinny guy, reminds me of Soto, still has upside (esp FB velo)....BA has him at 93 overall
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Mon May 30, 2011 6:12 pm

Tondo wrote:
homerawayfromhome wrote:Have heard of Noe Ramirez, hits 95-96 cal state Fullerton also played 1b where he has showed pop.


Think you're confusing him with LHP NICK Ramirez, who plays 1B too at Cal St Full....Noe Ramirez doesn't have a blazing FB, that's why he isn't a 1st rounder...he has everything else and his FB has gained velo last year...he has great stats, a nice arsenal of pitches, good control...skinny guy, reminds me of Soto, still has upside (esp FB velo)....BA has him at 93 overall


Saw him last year. He also doesn't have a good arm action or arm slot, nor does he have a durable body. He's athletic and loose, and I agree he can improve his velocity, but this isn't what good SP pitching prospects look like. He's funky, deceptive and he throws strikes -- I think he's an interesting prospect, but I'm not a believer. Ramirez will be successful in A-ball, but I think he really begins to struggle in the upper levels and people will begin to look at him as a middle relief guy, such as I do. Im not trying to start an argument b/c i enjoy your posts, I'm just skeptical of this guy.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Mon May 30, 2011 6:31 pm

I'm not sure if I've confused the two but there was a guy I was reading about cpl wks from California plays 1b and pitches mid 90fb. Isn't likely to end up a pitcher from what I understood thought it was Noe Ramirez, maybe the last name was the same. Seems like the guy was 6'4 190-200lbs. Doesn't matter though... My eyes are bleeding from all the reading... :crazy:
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby jellis » Tue May 31, 2011 7:35 am

from law today

Francisco Lindor, SS, Monteverde (Fla.) Academy

Cleveland's board is still wide open; the Indians have indicated they can go over slot, and have even been linked to Archie Bradley, although the biggest names right now are Lindor, Jed Bradley and Javier Baez. If Bauer actually gets here, he's their pick.

Love him or hate him, I do like how law actually says which guys teams are linked to, very few places seem to include that info. If he is right I would be happy with any name listed, JB would be a little disappointing but anyone else I would be pretty ex tactic
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby A.Zajac » Tue May 31, 2011 10:09 am

jellis wrote:from law today

Francisco Lindor, SS, Monteverde (Fla.) Academy

Cleveland's board is still wide open; the Indians have indicated they can go over slot, and have even been linked to Archie Bradley, although the biggest names right now are Lindor, Jed Bradley and Javier Baez. If Bauer actually gets here, he's their pick.

Love him or hate him, I do like how law actually says which guys teams are linked to, very few places seem to include that info. If he is right I would be happy with any name listed, JB would be a little disappointing but anyone else I would be pretty ex tactic


I'm not high on Bradley, but any other name he listed, including Lindor, I'd be perfectly fine with.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Tondo » Tue May 31, 2011 11:11 am

Taking a HS bat in the top10 of THIS draft would be beyond stupid imho :bad:

Gamble on a slipping HS bat in the mid-rounds (like Aviles, I know he's a P, last draft)...there should be plenty of HS bats available with our 2nd AND 3rd rounder

a dwight Smith or Story might slip

But to be completely honest...I'd load up on pitching in this draft....as we all know: 1. you never have enough and 2. It's the clear strength of this draft...I'd be ok spending 4 of our top5 picks on pitching....don't go for need, go for BPA and in the top rounds that should be mostly pitching

I also agree with whoever said we could "afford" going more HS arms since our upper minors seem to be loaded for the short term future...if we go the HS route than I clearly prefer arms over bats...with HS bats there's just way too much projection involved for my liking....

that said, HS bat in the top10? in this draft? Please God, nooooo...imho that would be moronic...take A.Bradley, Barnes, Jungmann...I'd even take Gray and Jed Bradley (and I really dont want Bradley) over a HS bat at 8...might as well play bingo gambling on a HS bat...look where 3B Martinez is projected to go this draft and he was a 1st round HS bat 3 years ago....HS bats in the 1st have the highest bust factor and that's something a small market team can't afford, esp not in the top 10 of a deep draft

Imho this draft's strength's in bats comes in the 3rd to 7th range, where guys like Buechele, Martini, K.Walker, Panik, Miller, Wright, Featherston, Asche, Coats, Bichette, P.Tucker, McCann, Seitzer or McGee (SR, who I really like for mid rounds) represent good value....go get some pitching in the top rounds, then go bats...don't go the "outsmart" route saying "we're gonna get the best bats 1st and then take the falling arms"...this tactic could lead to a major bust draft imho
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby daingean » Tue May 31, 2011 11:37 am

Tondo wrote:Taking a HS bat in the top10 of THIS draft would be beyond stupid imho :bad:

Gamble on a slipping HS bat in the mid-rounds (like Aviles, I know he's a P, last draft)...there should be plenty of HS bats available with our 2nd AND 3rd rounder

a dwight Smith or Story might slip

But to be completely honest...I'd load up on pitching in this draft....as we all know: 1. you never have enough and 2. It's the clear strength of this draft...I'd be ok spending 4 of our top5 picks on pitching....don't go for need, go for BPA and in the top rounds that should be mostly pitching

I also agree with whoever said we could "afford" going more HS arms since our upper minors seem to be loaded for the short term future...if we go the HS route than I clearly prefer arms over bats...with HS bats there's just way too much projection involved for my liking....

that said, HS bat in the top10? in this draft? Please God, nooooo...imho that would be moronic...take A.Bradley, Barnes, Jungmann...I'd even take Gray and Jed Bradley (and I really dont want Bradley) over a HS bat at 8...might as well play bingo gambling on a HS bat...look where 3B Martinez is projected to go this draft and he was a 1st round HS bat 3 years ago....HS bats in the 1st have the highest bust factor and that's something a small market team can't afford, esp not in the top 10 of a deep draft

Imho this draft's strength's in bats comes in the 3rd to 7th range, where guys like Buechele, Martini, K.Walker, Panik, Miller, Wright, Featherston, Asche, Coats, Bichette, P.Tucker, McCann, Seitzer or McGee (SR, who I really like for mid rounds) represent good value....go get some pitching in the top rounds, then go bats...don't go the "outsmart" route saying "we're gonna get the best bats 1st and then take the falling arms"...this tactic could lead to a major bust draft imho


I can't say that I agree with you Tondo. Sure HS bats are the most gamble but they also typically have the highest ceilings. I will say that if you are going to take a HS bat, be sure you scouted the player during the summer tournaments (last summer) especially the wood bat tournaments (i.e. WWBA). HS bats are still the BESR rated bats (until next year) and that distorts results + HS teams generally don't see very many good pitchers in a year (our HS only faced 6-7 Div 1 quality pitchers this year and some of those were underclassmen.) Plus HS bats an advance further in 3 years in the Minors than they will develop in college. I will say that I have a feeling that the Indians scouts spend more time evaluating the Showcase circuit than the summer tournaments (which I personally think is a mistake).

Personally, I do stay away from the 2 sport stars like Starling (because they seldom participate in the top summer leagues and are very much projection). While the WWBA is going on these guys are usually hitting the College Summer Camp schedule (football) or AAU Summer Basketball. To get an accurate gauge on someone you really need to see them against the top competition.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Hermie13 » Tue May 31, 2011 12:46 pm

Obviously it depends on how you view guys like Lindor. Some see him as all glove and no bat (ie, Ecides Escobar in KC) and others see him as a Jimmy Rollins type (one baseball guy mentinoed this last fall). Personally can't see 30 HRs but think 20 HR pop is legit from him. Would also have taken him over Machado last year.


Agree with jellis, would be a tad disappointed with Baez that high though it sounds like he'll be an easy sign (that high) and then spend big in the later rounds....would be a bit like what the pirates did a couple years ago with Sanchez.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Tondo » Tue May 31, 2011 1:02 pm

I agree but still don't like the sample size and heavy projection involved...even though I wasn't a big fan of the picks I'm more ok with taking HS bats outside the top 50 like we did with Washington, Wolters, Lavisky and Hunter last draft

Here are some mid round College specs I like not in BA's Top200:

Jr OF Taylor Dugas, Bama: smallish table setter, high OBP, little power, some speed
Jr MIF Riccio Torrez, AriSt: decent bat for a MIF, some speed, 8th to 15th round sure sign
RS Jr 3B John Hinson, Clemson: soem speed, some power, AVG across the board, will turn 23yo in Sept...still intruiging 2nd day guy

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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Tue May 31, 2011 1:21 pm

I don't like formulas for drafting, other than BPA. I don't look at "strength of the draft" or anything other than the particular pick that I'm making at the time. If Brad & the Boys are convinced that a HS bat is the BPA at #8, that's who we should select. If you don't trust the drafting guys, get new guys. If they like Baez, Starling, whomever, I'm good with that.

Now I personally would take Bundy, Archie, Bauer, or Barnes over any HS bat in the draft, but I'm not the expert. We got McAllister for crap basically, & he might turn out to be better than 99% of the pitchers in this draft.

BPA
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue May 31, 2011 1:27 pm

Id be happy with any of (Lindor, ABradley, Baez) 3 of my favorites for the tribe pk, Jed Bradley is alright but I'd prefer to see Barnes over Jed Bradley. With the depth in the system the tribe isn't as pressured to go w/ that college arm. Like they have the past few yrs... Good returns (so far) on those pks though.
Here's a thought... Rondon, Knapp, APerez, Aviles, Stowell and Bryson haven't stepped on a mound yet this yr for an affiliate.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue May 31, 2011 1:29 pm

@ anyone... How and who do you rank the top 5-10 guys for the tribes pk 8 overall?
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby daingean » Tue May 31, 2011 1:52 pm

Rocky55 wrote:I don't like formulas for drafting, other than BPA. I don't look at "strength of the draft" or anything other than the particular pick that I'm making at the time. If Brad & the Boys are convinced that a HS bat is the BPA at #8, that's who we should select. If you don't trust the drafting guys, get new guys. If they like Baez, Starling, whomever, I'm good with that.

Now I personally would take Bundy, Archie, Bauer, or Barnes over any HS bat in the draft, but I'm not the expert. We got McAllister for crap basically, & he might turn out to be better than 99% of the pitchers in this draft.

BPA


I agree BPA but this goes down to how you evaluate the BPA. Rating guys against all competition or vs good competition? HS competition vs College competition? Tools vs. results? Potential vs. current rating? I think all of this really comes down to is how you arrive at BPA.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Tondo » Tue May 31, 2011 3:00 pm

Rocky55 wrote:I don't like formulas for drafting, other than BPA. I don't look at "strength of the draft" or anything other than the particular pick that I'm making at the time. If Brad & the Boys are convinced that a HS bat is the BPA at #8, that's who we should select. If you don't trust the drafting guys, get new guys. If they like Baez, Starling, whomever, I'm good with that.

Now I personally would take Bundy, Archie, Bauer, or Barnes over any HS bat in the draft, but I'm not the expert. We got McAllister for crap basically, & he might turn out to be better than 99% of the pitchers in this draft.

BPA


While I'm with you with BPA all the way, no Org will draft 10 pitchers or position players in a row...BPA or not

Continuing the non-BA Top200 list of interesting players:

Jr 3B Tanis, Mercer: this guy has legit power and good eye, 5th to 10th rounder I'd be VERY happy to draft

Sr IF/OF Woodward, Coastal Car: 15th rounder as Jr (OAK), who didnt sign and had a great SR season, some serious OBP and SB skills along with positional versatility...if we go easy SR sign somewhere in the top 10, I'd be ok with him

Jr SS Featherston, TCU: not great at anything but solid all around, could go anywhere from 6th to 20th, I'd be ok with him from 8th+

Jr LHP R.Carpenter, Gonzaga: drafted in 21st out of HS (TB), struggled 1st 2 years but put it together as Jr, 10 K/9

Jr LHP Maronde, Florida: Reliever with 12 K/9

SR RHP Fontanez, South Florida: solide, very consistent SP, was drafted in 23rd round last year (CIN)

Jr 2B Paolini: Good power potential, very consistent bat (+ 1100 OPS all 3 seasons), I'd be happy with him from 4th/5th to 10th

Jr 1B Seitzer, Okl: solid hitter, some power, good AVG/OBP...6th to 12th?

Sr 1B Hoilman, East Tenn St: plenty power and BBs...Ks too though, another mid rounder to look at, was drafted in 49th in 2010 (TB)

Jr 2B/3B Wittels, Florida Int: some speed, solid contact guy...13th to 30th rounder I guess
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Tue May 31, 2011 4:57 pm

daingean wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:I don't like formulas for drafting, other than BPA. I don't look at "strength of the draft" or anything other than the particular pick that I'm making at the time. If Brad & the Boys are convinced that a HS bat is the BPA at #8, that's who we should select. If you don't trust the drafting guys, get new guys. If they like Baez, Starling, whomever, I'm good with that.

Now I personally would take Bundy, Archie, Bauer, or Barnes over any HS bat in the draft, but I'm not the expert. We got McAllister for crap basically, & he might turn out to be better than 99% of the pitchers in this draft.

BPA


I agree BPA but this goes down to how you evaluate the BPA. Rating guys against all competition or vs good competition? HS competition vs College competition? Tools vs. results? Potential vs. current rating? I think all of this really comes down to is how you arrive at BPA.

You're right, it's subjective. I could give you generalities, which is basically what's involved, but you know the drill. You have to balance everything. A lot of it to me is seeing a guy play against good competition. You can see tools & results demonstrated at the same time. Of course you need multiple looks. You already know all of this.

One example. Everyone is, I'm sure, sick of hearing about Mikie Mahtook. I rate him marginally higher than George Springer. Similar tools, similar bodies, similar results. The outlier is strength of schedule. As I say though, they're very close. Put Mahtook(or Springer) up against Starling. I take the toolsy but proven college guy but maybe 75% of teams would rate Starling higher based on superior tools.

What if your turn comes up in the draft & you have to choose between Josh Bell & Levi Michael? I take Bell every time. Michael has no upside, IMO.

What if you had to choose between Beau Mills & Rick Porcello. Seemed pretty obvious to me.

Pitchers are easier for me. More measurables. Velo & movement on FB, depth of breaking stuff, delivery & effort, command & location, body & projectabiliy. Stats are less important with pitchers, IMO. That's why I could take Bundy or Archie over any of the college guys. I would, too.

This is mostly BS that everyone is aware of even if they don't agree or have other criteria that they favor. I'm sure that Brad & the Boys have their own. As I said in last year's draft thread, there were guys that I preferred at certain slots but I had no problem with the guys they took instead. As long as we avoid the Crowe, Sowers, Mills type of picks we'll be fine. BPA.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby soulax5 » Wed Jun 01, 2011 2:15 am

Speaking of the later round guys I would love to see the Indians to pick is Sam Gaviglio at some point. He's posting a 1.95 ERA with 102 K's in 106 innings, 11-2 record this year. Was First team Freshman AA and 10-1 that season. Had a bit of a down season as a soph though. What round does anyone think he will go? Good college arm to add to the stock pile of arms the Indians already have.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Tondo » Wed Jun 01, 2011 3:47 am

Gaviglio would probably go from late 2nd to 4th in most drafts...in this 1 he goes in the 3rd at best imho, no later than 6th I'd say but you never know, might slip through
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jun 01, 2011 12:43 pm

Rocky55 wrote:What if your turn comes up in the draft & you have to choose between Josh Bell & Levi Michael? I take Bell every time. Michael has no upside, IMO.

What if you had to choose between Beau Mills & Rick Porcello. Seemed pretty obvious to me.

Pitchers are easier for me. More measurables. Velo & movement on FB, depth of breaking stuff, delivery & effort, command & location, body & projectabiliy. Stats are less important with pitchers, IMO. That's why I could take Bundy or Archie over any of the college guys. I would, too.

This is mostly BS that everyone is aware of even if they don't agree or have other criteria that they favor. I'm sure that Brad & the Boys have their own. As I said in last year's draft thread, there were guys that I preferred at certain slots but I had no problem with the guys they took instead. As long as we avoid the Crowe, Sowers, Mills type of picks we'll be fine. BPA.


Depends if you're taking into account bonus demands and draft budget. While teams love saying they will take BPA, money does talk. I seem to recall the Tribe being very high on Weaver and Drew...but settled on Sowers as the demands were getting pretty outrageous for the other two.

It's a bit different now with comp picks for failure to sign though...
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Wed Jun 01, 2011 12:43 pm

I want either Trevor Bauer or Archie Bradley. I think Bradley has front of the rotation starter written all over him. I don't really trust Bundy, and if Bauer and Bradley are off the board or deemed unsignable, I hope the Indians opt for a positional talent rather than taking Jed Bradley, Matt Barnes, Danny Hultzen, Sonny Gray or Taylor Jungmann b/c I don't think those guys are that great of pitching prospects. When I say positional talent, I don't mean Javier Baez b/c I think that guy has a high potential of flaming out quickly.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby A.Zajac » Wed Jun 01, 2011 1:06 pm

OhioBaseball wrote:I want either Trevor Bauer or Archie Bradley. I think Bradley has front of the rotation starter written all over him. I don't really trust Bundy, and if Bauer and Bradley are off the board or deemed unsignable, I hope the Indians opt for a positional talent rather than taking Jed Bradley, Matt Barnes, Danny Hultzen, Sonny Gray or Taylor Jungmann b/c I don't think those guys are that great of pitching prospects. When I say positional talent, I don't mean Javier Baez b/c I think that guy has a high potential of flaming out quickly.


I somewhat echo your thoughts. I would be elated if we took Bauer, but unfortunately, IMO, he'll be off the board by then. Archie Bradley will be there, but he has some high demands and is a two sport guy. I'm not sure I'd touch him at 8. If we were a little further back in the draft, like 10, 11, or 12, then I would pull the trigger. I like the kid, don't get me wrong, I'd still take him, but it would just depend who is available at the spot.

However, I love Bundy. Doubt he'll fall past the top five though. Same goes for Hultzen, he's top five material. I want nothing to do with Bradley, Gray, or Jungmann. Bradley projects as a MOR starter, Gray as a reliever/closer, and Jungmann as a MOR starter, IMO. I'd be okay with Barnes. I wouldn't be excited, but I wouldn't complain either.

My draft board looks something like this:
1. Bauer
2. Bundy
3.Lindor
4. Starling
5. Bradley
6. Barnes

Unfortunately, I think Bauer and Bundy are off the board by then, possibly Barnes and Starling as well (maybe). Then you'd be looking at Lindor or Bradley. That'd be a tough call.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Wed Jun 01, 2011 1:51 pm

A.Zajac wrote:
OhioBaseball wrote:I want either Trevor Bauer or Archie Bradley. I think Bradley has front of the rotation starter written all over him. I don't really trust Bundy, and if Bauer and Bradley are off the board or deemed unsignable, I hope the Indians opt for a positional talent rather than taking Jed Bradley, Matt Barnes, Danny Hultzen, Sonny Gray or Taylor Jungmann b/c I don't think those guys are that great of pitching prospects. When I say positional talent, I don't mean Javier Baez b/c I think that guy has a high potential of flaming out quickly.


I somewhat echo your thoughts. I would be elated if we took Bauer, but unfortunately, IMO, he'll be off the board by then. Archie Bradley will be there, but he has some high demands and is a two sport guy. I'm not sure I'd touch him at 8. If we were a little further back in the draft, like 10, 11, or 12, then I would pull the trigger. I like the kid, don't get me wrong, I'd still take him, but it would just depend who is available at the spot.

However, I love Bundy. Doubt he'll fall past the top five though. Same goes for Hultzen, he's top five material. I want nothing to do with Bradley, Gray, or Jungmann. Bradley projects as a MOR starter, Gray as a reliever/closer, and Jungmann as a MOR starter, IMO. I'd be okay with Barnes. I wouldn't be excited, but I wouldn't complain either.

My draft board looks something like this:
1. Bauer
2. Bundy
3.Lindor
4. Starling
5. Bradley
6. Barnes

Unfortunately, I think Bauer and Bundy are off the board by then, possibly Barnes and Starling as well (maybe). Then you'd be looking at Lindor or Bradley. That'd be a tough call.


We're pretty much on the same wave length. The thing I like about Archie Bradley is he's very physically talented and his delivery is as good as it gets for a prospect his age -- there is really not much work pitching instructors need to do with him. I think Bradley will move very quickly through the minor leagues. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bradley make the majors before some of the college guys (not including Bauer -- I think Bauer could get by right NOW in a major league bullpen). Bradley is worth $4+ million in terms of a signing bonus. I've loved Pomeranz for years now, but Bradley would be probably the Indians #1 prospect the day he signed.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Wed Jun 01, 2011 2:09 pm

I'm with Andrew, I love Bundy as a prospect. I'd take him #1. If he signed early & pitched some this year, I could see him in a Sept. '12 callup.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Wed Jun 01, 2011 2:22 pm

Rocky55 wrote:I'm with Andrew, I love Bundy as a prospect. I'd take him #1. If he signed early & pitched some this year, I could see him in a Sept. '12 callup.


This is going to sound out there, but do these prospects get tested for PEDs in any fashion before the draft? Are prospects REQUIRED to get tested as amateurs? I'm guessing no
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Wed Jun 01, 2011 5:00 pm

I think the peds testing varies from state to state and county, school district. I believe are some that test, personally I had the opportunity to use steroids in hs , never did though ... Heart murmur would have killed me. If I could I wouldn't.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Wed Jun 01, 2011 8:19 pm

OhioBaseball wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:I'm with Andrew, I love Bundy as a prospect. I'd take him #1. If he signed early & pitched some this year, I could see him in a Sept. '12 callup.


This is going to sound out there, but do these prospects get tested for PEDs in any fashion before the draft? Are prospects REQUIRED to get tested as amateurs? I'm guessing no

Not that you were implying that Bundy...but I could see why you might think so due to the physique. If you were referring to the plethora of HS pitchers in the mid 90's, it might be the talent pool. I'm not sure that any HS kid throws as hard as Bob Feller did though.

That aside, I like Archie too & hope the Tribe drafts him. He could end up a better ML pitcher than Bundy. Bundy doesn't have much projection left but neither did Strasberg, IMO. Bundy's so athletic & his delivery is so smooth that it should easy to maintain. I'd take either guy.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Wed Jun 01, 2011 8:52 pm

These mocks are starting to tick me off. MLB Bonus Baby has BA's latest(Tribe picking Jed Bradley) & Frank Piliere(Tribe picking Sonny Gray). Both mocks have at least eight of the ten picks following the Tribe's that I like better that our projected pick. Do these guys hate us or what? We keep getting linked to Gray. Would any Tribe fan be happy with Gray? Not me.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby jellis » Wed Jun 01, 2011 9:08 pm

Rocky55 wrote:These mocks are starting to tick me off. MLB Bonus Baby has BA's latest(Tribe picking Jed Bradley) & Frank Piliere(Tribe picking Sonny Gray). Both mocks have at least eight of the ten picks following the Tribe's that I like better that our projected pick. Do these guys hate us or what? We keep getting linked to Gray. Would any Tribe fan be happy with Gray? Not me.


comes down to a history of college arms and typically a slot team means we get matched with such players, I honestly bet gray is gone when we pick, he seems perfect for the 7th pick
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed Jun 01, 2011 11:07 pm

jellis wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:These mocks are starting to tick me off. MLB Bonus Baby has BA's latest(Tribe picking Jed Bradley) & Frank Piliere(Tribe picking Sonny Gray). Both mocks have at least eight of the ten picks following the Tribe's that I like better that our projected pick. Do these guys hate us or what? We keep getting linked to Gray. Would any Tribe fan be happy with Gray? Not me.


comes down to a history of college arms and typically a slot team means we get matched with such players, I honestly bet gray is gone when we pick, he seems perfect for the 7th pick
Jed Bradley is a safe pick..Sonny Gray is the Vandy arm that conjures memories of Jeremy Sowers.. neither is that "too sexy to ignore" type players, but both have the chops to be major leaguers.

Regarding Callis' Mock picks after the Indians selecting Jed Bradley, I like Archie Bradley to the Cubs better, Matt Barnes to the Padres better, Taylor Jungmann to the Stros better, Mikie Mahtook to the Mets better, Taylor Guerrieri to the Dodgers better, Alex Meyer to the Angels better, George Springer to the A's better and Jose Fernandez to the Rays better...or 8 of the next 16 picks.. :nea:
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby A.Zajac » Wed Jun 01, 2011 11:29 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:
jellis wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:These mocks are starting to tick me off. MLB Bonus Baby has BA's latest(Tribe picking Jed Bradley) & Frank Piliere(Tribe picking Sonny Gray). Both mocks have at least eight of the ten picks following the Tribe's that I like better that our projected pick. Do these guys hate us or what? We keep getting linked to Gray. Would any Tribe fan be happy with Gray? Not me.


comes down to a history of college arms and typically a slot team means we get matched with such players, I honestly bet gray is gone when we pick, he seems perfect for the 7th pick
Jed Bradley is a safe pick..Sonny Gray is the Vandy arm that conjures memories of Jeremy Sowers.. neither is that "too sexy to ignore" type players, but both have the chops to be major leaguers.

Regarding Callis' Mock picks after the Indians selecting Jed Bradley, I like Archie Bradley to the Cubs better, Matt Barnes to the Padres better, Taylor Jungmann to the Stros better, Mikie Mahtook to the Mets better, Taylor Guerrieri to the Dodgers better, Alex Meyer to the Angels better, George Springer to the A's better and Jose Fernandez to the Rays better...or 8 of the next 16 picks.. :nea:


And Lindor with us. :good:
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Wed Jun 01, 2011 11:39 pm

Honestly I think the Tribe has their pk down to a cpl guys. Id guess in this order...
Bauer
Archie Bradley
Baez
Lindor.

Personally Im thinking ABradley or Baez.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby TonyIBI » Thu Jun 02, 2011 12:03 am

You don't know how the draft will shake out, but hearing the Indians are likely to take a pitcher 1st. Unlike years past though, a possibility could be a prep arm this year.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Thu Jun 02, 2011 5:39 am

TonyIPI wrote:You don't know how the draft will shake out, but hearing the Indians are likely to take a pitcher 1st. Unlike years past though, a possibility could be a prep arm this year.

AAARRR-CHIE! AAARRR-CHIE!
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby JP_Frost » Thu Jun 02, 2011 6:49 am

Rocky55 wrote:
TonyIPI wrote:You don't know how the draft will shake out, but hearing the Indians are likely to take a pitcher 1st. Unlike years past though, a possibility could be a prep arm this year.

AAARRR-CHIE! AAARRR-CHIE!


Hoping we get him as well!
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Thu Jun 02, 2011 9:39 am

For this draft, looking at the pitchers on "our" list, any one of these ten, in order:

Gerrit Cole P
Trevor Bauer P
Danny Hultzen P
Alex Meyer P
Archie Bradley P
Dylan Bundy P
Taylor Jungmann P
Taylor Guerrieri P
Matt Barnes P
Jose Fernandez P

would be more than welcome and a strong addition to an already deep pool of pitchers in the Indians system.

For the position players on our list, these ten, in order:

Bubba Starling OF
George Springer OF
Mikie Mahtook OF
Travis Harrison 3B/OF
Blake Swihart C
Javier Baez SS
Brandon Nimmo OF
Cory Spangenberg OF
Francisco Lindor SS
Kolten Wong 2B

would add the kind of impact bat needed to fill the most glaring weakness in the Indians system. :yahoo:
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu Jun 02, 2011 12:14 pm

I'm guessing it's Archie Bradley, maybe Baez but 75% it's Bradley of the two. Looking at the mock some of us have been doing, I think some good players with 1st rd talent will still be on the board rds 2,3 maybe 4. Tremendous depth particularly in pitching.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Thu Jun 02, 2011 2:12 pm

With all the sandwich picks this year.. the second round is really the third round i.e. the Indians have the 8th, then the 67th pick or approximately one pick less than two complete rounds between selections.. That said.. the depth of this draft will allow the Indians to select someone with the talent who may have been a late first round up to a middle second round pick in other drafts with that second round pick.

It doesn't need to be said, but the key will be making sure that first pick is THEEE GUY..
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