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2011 Amateur Draft

Talk shop about the various prospects and teams that make up the Cleveland Indians organization.

Re: Trever Bauer

Postby jellis » Sat Apr 16, 2011 6:18 pm

ClevBuck wrote:Yay or nay at 8? He's probably going to lead the nation in strikeouts for the 2nd straight year, he has 2 starts this year that he had the stamina and mechanics to throw 120+ pitches and keep his velocity consistant all game long. He has more control strikeout abillity then Pomeranz. He claims he can hit 97-100 but he chooses not too so he can pitch deeper in to games.

College baseball season is about half way over and there don't seem to be any top hitting canidates to emerge, he would probably be a safe sign and a college player which the indians covet the last 2 years

I think I would do it unless Starlimg falls and a 2014 rotation of Carmona-Masterson-Pomeranz-White-Bauer has a very bright future plus Knapp and Carrasco in the pen or one could be the #5 if we trade Carmona or lose him to FA



I pass high work load and something about his delivery scares me, I am looking bats, because in this draft you can go bat and get a high ceiling player
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Sat Apr 16, 2011 6:48 pm

I'm not drinking the Gerrit Cole Kool-Aid the way everyone else is. People that see UCLA each week will tell you Bauer is the better pitcher -- Cole just throws harder. Bauer's stuff is better. I've always thought the was a disconnect between draft analysis and minor league prospect analysis (they put more weight on different variables). I think the draft guys like Cole more, but after a year of professional baseball (after 2012 season), I think Bauer is going to be viewed as the better pitching prospect. I would also like to note that thus far through 6 innings on Saturday, Bauer is outpitching Cole again.

If Bauer were there at #8, I would absolutely take him. I don't think its a stretch to say he'll be ready for a rotation spot to open the 2013 season.

Some guy asked a question to BA that I thought was reasonable (it wasn't me);

"Tyler (Harrodsburg, Ky): Jim, I'm just curious why there seems to be a scouting concensus that Gerrit Cole is a better pitching prospect than Trevor Bauer. Statistically, it is no comparison in Bauer's favor. And from a visual perspective, I watched all of Cole's performances during the tournament last year and I came away unimpressed. He showed little faith in his offspeed pitches, and when he did throw them, they weren't controlled well. He
seemed like a 80% fastball throwing pitcher. Outside of body type, why do scouts favor Cole over Bauer
?"

I also just saw Taylor Jungmann pitch. I was pretty critical of him before, but I noticed his arm slot is not as low as I remembered. I'm still not crazy about him, but he's a legit starting pitching prospect. Looked pretty good. He's not throwing at the velocities he threw at his freshman and sophomore seasons, though.
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Re: Trever Bauer

Postby OhioBaseball » Sat Apr 16, 2011 7:05 pm

jellis wrote:
ClevBuck wrote:Yay or nay at 8? He's probably going to lead the nation in strikeouts for the 2nd straight year, he has 2 starts this year that he had the stamina and mechanics to throw 120+ pitches and keep his velocity consistant all game long. He has more control strikeout abillity then Pomeranz. He claims he can hit 97-100 but he chooses not too so he can pitch deeper in to games.

College baseball season is about half way over and there don't seem to be any top hitting canidates to emerge, he would probably be a safe sign and a college player which the indians covet the last 2 years

I think I would do it unless Starlimg falls and a 2014 rotation of Carmona-Masterson-Pomeranz-White-Bauer has a very bright future plus Knapp and Carrasco in the pen or one could be the #5 if we trade Carmona or lose him to FA



I pass high work load and something about his delivery scares me, I am looking bats, because in this draft you can go bat and get a high ceiling player


Specifically, what about the delivery scares you?

Also was recently reminded of Tim Lincecum in college. Guy would throw 100+ pitches Friday night and come in to close games out in relief on Sunday afternoon. The guy turned out fine.

Also remember Jeremy Guthrie regularly throwing well beyond 120 pitches at Stanford, and people were freaked out about it. For those wondering, he's never had an arm surgery since.

Not that I think it's a big deal, but for as much as people love Cole and rip on Bauer's pitch counts, Cole is throwing 115+ pretty much every week.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Sun Apr 17, 2011 12:40 am

http://www.youtube.com/user/Fidog91?ble ... B8efpJIsz4

That's a video of Trevor Bauer from the side. You can get a nice look at his arm action. It looks clean to me.

Predicting injuries with pitchers can be quite difficult. I remember the draftnik's being quite concerned about Max Scherzer's delivery when he was at Missouri, too. He's never had a problem. Jose Valverde had even crazier mechanics when he was in the minors, but I don't believe he's ever had a surgery, either. I realize there is a survivorship bias in my argument, in that its easier to point out the guys with less than traditional mechanics that didn't have surgery than the guys that had similar mechanics but did have surgery (the guys that flame out in A-ball and we never hear about them), but in the years Ive been following college pitching prospects, predicting arm injuries is very difficult to do. Pitching is an unnatural human motion and guys are going to get hurt doing it. There is an element of randomness to it.

All that being said, however, I still would prefer Bauer to be not throwing 130 pitches in a day :)
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby TribeTalk01 » Sun Apr 17, 2011 7:26 am

With the information Keith Law and Jim Callis are hearing at the moment it looks like it will be a very (college) pitching heavy top 7 selections which opens up the intriguing possibility of Bubba Starling being available at 8, obviosuly we should take BPA but it is also true that the system could do with an infusion of impact everyday players. Starling no doubt will carry a hefty price tag but with his football schollie his bonus could spread over 4/5 years which may be more palatable to swallow in terms of cost
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Re: Trever Bauer

Postby ClevBuck » Sun Apr 17, 2011 12:01 pm

I pass high work load and something about his delivery scares me, I am looking bats, because in this draft you can go bat and get a high ceiling player[/quote]




Many players have had high workloads in college and had successfull careers and every scouting report says his delivery is a pretty safe delievery that wont give him much problems. Andtheres no real high ceilling bats reasonable at 8
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby ClevBuck » Sun Apr 17, 2011 12:04 pm

jellis wrote:
ClevBuck wrote:Saw someone say it was too early for t



I wrote such a thing, and I also wrote the draft article on the site. You don't limit players at this point. You scout as many as you can and don't start limiting your field till mid May. The reason It is only MID SEASON. I want you to copy the list now and then look back on draft day and see if its even close. I think you might be suprised



Who cares if the list change? Your still WAY behind the 8 ball by waitokng this late he'll Baltimore already has their list down to 5-6 guys according to their insiders on their message board once again great thing your not our GM our drafts would be awful
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby jellis » Sun Apr 17, 2011 12:25 pm

ClevBuck wrote:
jellis wrote:
ClevBuck wrote:Saw someone say it was too early for t



I wrote such a thing, and I also wrote the draft article on the site. You don't limit players at this point. You scout as many as you can and don't start limiting your field till mid May. The reason It is only MID SEASON. I want you to copy the list now and then look back on draft day and see if its even close. I think you might be suprised



Who cares if the list change? Your still WAY behind the 8 ball by waitokng this late he'll Baltimore already has their list down to 5-6 guys according to their insiders on their message board once again great thing your not our GM our drafts would be awful



You can make points with out attacking people. I am sure the have guys they like, you do start to make a side list, but this point if your are focusing on 5-6 guys, and not scouting heavily then you end up with a crappy draft. The reason to keep your net so wide, is so you end up with great picks later. Two years ago the Indians like Kipnis well enough to take in round 1, but they waited and got him. The point to narrowing your list is you now have a board of guys you like. Its like football, you don't say these are the guys you are considering in October. You have lists, you update and you scout. Nothing should be definite at this point and nothing ever is. I am not sure you want to take the Baltimore approach to scouting and drafting as they have not made the play offs in 13 years and have had serious draft an development issues over the years. But if you think that's a good model then good on you. I honest;y think this board could combine and do a better job the has been done in Bmore.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby daingean » Sun Apr 17, 2011 1:39 pm

ClevBuck wrote:
jellis wrote:
ClevBuck wrote:Saw someone say it was too early for t



I wrote such a thing, and I also wrote the draft article on the site. You don't limit players at this point. You scout as many as you can and don't start limiting your field till mid May. The reason It is only MID SEASON. I want you to copy the list now and then look back on draft day and see if its even close. I think you might be suprised



Who cares if the list change? Your still WAY behind the 8 ball by waitokng this late he'll Baltimore already has their list down to 5-6 guys according to their insiders on their message board once again great thing your not our GM our drafts would be awful


Evaluations should be a continual process. Things happen. I am a proponent that scouting HS players should be done with their summer teams with more weight than the HS season. My step-son is a HS baseball player and they may face only about 1-2 draft quality pitchers each year but the summer teams can face more than that during one high level tournament. Showcases are good but seeing how guys play with their teams as opposed to make shift teams is a good way to evaluate peripheral attributes (i.e. attitude, competitiveness, game intelligence....).

Now in college, I would scout guys more on Friday-Saturday than Sunday or mid-week games. Summer leagues are better as they (usually) are wood bat leagues and they face better pitchers on a day-to-day basis.

Edit: thus because of my points above, player evaluations should be almost complete. I wouldn't let a player have too much helium or drop unless some things really standout (i.e. velocity increases or mechanic breakdowns occur).
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby TonyIBI » Sun Apr 17, 2011 2:22 pm

ClevBuck wrote:Who cares if the list change? Your still WAY behind the 8 ball by waitokng this late he'll Baltimore already has their list down to 5-6 guys according to their insiders on their message board once again great thing your not our GM our drafts would be awful


Sorry, but those insiders are wrong. No team aside from maybe Pittsburgh or the Seattle, two months before the draft, has their first round pick narrowed down to 5-6 players. Too many Friday's left to see college pitchers, and the high school season has barely started. Knowing some things I know in talking to other teams scouts, they probably have double that amount they are still considering. The listing doesn't really get narrowed down until the draft gets much closer. I mean, there is no reason to narrow the list down yet....you are still seeing guys the same regardless.

Picking at #4 you can obviously narrow things down....but too early yet. I believe teams have an idea of who they like right now, but those things can change over the next two months still...so why you keep going back for 5th, 6th, 7th looks at the tops guys.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby ClevBuck » Sun Apr 17, 2011 2:44 pm

^BS alert! You don't know what Baltimore has going on so don't try to act like you know everything and you definayleu don't k.ow more then their insiders so sorry but you have never been more wrong in your entire lifetime
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby dazindiansfanuk » Sun Apr 17, 2011 2:52 pm

ClevBuck wrote:^BS alert! You don't know what Baltimore has going on so don't try to act like you know everything and you definayleu don't k.ow more then their insiders so sorry but you have never been more wrong in your entire lifetime


Someone's a little touchy!
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby TonyIBI » Sun Apr 17, 2011 3:05 pm

Nothing more needs to be said. By the way, ClevBuck sounds awfully familiar to BuckeyeBomber from last year.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby A.Zajac » Sun Apr 17, 2011 3:20 pm

ClevBuck wrote:^BS alert! You don't know what Baltimore has going on so don't try to act like you know everything and you definayleu don't k.ow more then their insiders so sorry but you have never been more wrong in your entire lifetime


My bad, I forgot that you know all. I also forgot that message boards are a reliable source... :drinks:
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Sun Apr 17, 2011 4:20 pm

I wouldn't know/couldn't care less what any other team does. Brad Grant said, and rightly so, that the Tribe continues to give guys repeated looks during the college season.

This:
daingean wrote:
ClevBuck wrote:
jellis wrote:
ClevBuck wrote:Saw someone say it was too early for t



I wrote such a thing, and I also wrote the draft article on the site. You don't limit players at this point. You scout as many as you can and don't start limiting your field till mid May. The reason It is only MID SEASON. I want you to copy the list now and then look back on draft day and see if its even close. I think you might be suprised



Who cares if the list change? Your still WAY behind the 8 ball by waitokng this late he'll Baltimore already has their list down to 5-6 guys according to their insiders on their message board once again great thing your not our GM our drafts would be awful


Evaluations should be a continual process. Things happen. I am a proponent that scouting HS players should be done with their summer teams with more weight than the HS season. My step-son is a HS baseball player and they may face only about 1-2 draft quality pitchers each year but the summer teams can face more than that during one high level tournament. Showcases are good but seeing how guys play with their teams as opposed to make shift teams is a good way to evaluate peripheral attributes (i.e. attitude, competitiveness, game intelligence....).

Now in college, I would scout guys more on Friday-Saturday than Sunday or mid-week games. Summer leagues are better as they (usually) are wood bat leagues and they face better pitchers on a day-to-day basis.

Edit: thus because of my points above, player evaluations should be almost complete. I wouldn't let a player have too much helium or drop unless some things really standout (i.e. velocity increases or mechanic breakdowns occur).

I would agree with this wholeheartedly, with the proviso that a HSer can develop almost overnight in some cases, which is pretty much what I gathered from the last line of daingean's post. Two years ago quite a few guys were drafted lower than I thought they would be. Last year not so much, but you have to be prepared if it happens. I'll bet quite a few teams could have benefitted with late looks at Mike Trout in '09.
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Re: Trever Bauer

Postby Hermie13 » Sun Apr 17, 2011 6:00 pm

ClevBuck wrote:And theres no real high ceilling bats reasonable at 8


Disagree with this. George Springer is a high ceiling bat who is very reasonable at 8. Same with Bubba Starling (though you could argue how reasonable it is for him to be there at 8).
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Re: Trever Bauer

Postby Rocky55 » Sun Apr 17, 2011 10:21 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
ClevBuck wrote:And theres no real high ceilling bats reasonable at 8


Disagree with this. George Springer is a high ceiling bat who is very reasonable at 8. Same with Bubba Starling (though you could argue how reasonable it is for him to be there at 8).

Bell, Fisher, Swihart, Cron, & Mahtook all fit at 8 IMO. I'd be happy with any of them at 8 for their bats. Cron's a 1B & Swihart's a catcher, but the other 3 are OF's. Swihart's the only one who doesn't have plus power, he's more like Chiz.

On the earlier topic of multiple looks at guys, I was watching the Vanderbilt/South Carolina game which illustrated the reason for multiple looks.

After a hot start, Jackie Bradley is in a horrendous slump & is down under .300. Kid looks lost at the plate. Jason Esposito started ice cold & has picked it up lately, with a nice current hitting streak & 3HR's in the last 2 games. They've probably passed each other in the draft order, going in opposite directions, based on play in the last 2 weeks.
Last edited by Rocky55 on Mon Apr 18, 2011 7:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby jellis » Sun Apr 17, 2011 10:47 pm

ClevBuck wrote:^BS alert! You don't know what Baltimore has going on so don't try to act like you know everything and you definayleu don't k.ow more then their insiders so sorry but you have never been more wrong in your entire lifetime



anyone can call themselves an insider, if this is buckeyebomber. How about that whimmers start to the year?
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby elrod enchilada » Tue Apr 19, 2011 11:23 am

My sense, at this point in time, based on what is available on the web, is that unless Starling or Rendon or Lindor falls to the 8th slot, when the Tribe picks in the first round the best prospect available will likely be a pitcher. A very very good pitcher, who will likely instantly become the one of the top two prospects in the Indians system, along with Pomeranz.

The Tribe front office does not strike me as likely to reach for a lesser talent in the first round just to fill the greater need for a position player. This is the sort of draft where the pitcher taken with the 8th pick could be a top three type talent in other years.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Tue Apr 19, 2011 12:16 pm

elrod enchilada wrote:My sense, at this point in time, based on what is available on the web, is that unless Starling or Rendon or Lindor falls to the 8th slot, when the Tribe picks in the first round the best prospect available will likely be a pitcher. A very very good pitcher, who will likely instantly become the one of the top two prospects in the Indians system, along with Pomeranz.

The Tribe front office does not strike me as likely to reach for a lesser talent in the first round just to fill the greater need for a position player. This is the sort of draft where the pitcher taken with the 8th pick could be a top three type talent in other years.

You could be right. As long as it's the BPA, who cares? Lindor "falling" to 8th is IMO pretty much a lock. I'm just not convinced he's the BPA at #8.

I mentioned Julius Gaines before. Has a ways to go with the bat but by reports and video, he's at least Lindor's equal with the glove. He's got a video on youtube. Reminds me of Brandon Phillips pysically. He's from the ATL area so maybe daingean can give a scouting report. My best case scenario is the BPA at #8 & Gaines in the 2nd. Even if the stick doesn't develop we've seen what the result of great D is on the big club this year.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby daingean » Tue Apr 19, 2011 12:43 pm

Rocky55 wrote:
elrod enchilada wrote:My sense, at this point in time, based on what is available on the web, is that unless Starling or Rendon or Lindor falls to the 8th slot, when the Tribe picks in the first round the best prospect available will likely be a pitcher. A very very good pitcher, who will likely instantly become the one of the top two prospects in the Indians system, along with Pomeranz.

The Tribe front office does not strike me as likely to reach for a lesser talent in the first round just to fill the greater need for a position player. This is the sort of draft where the pitcher taken with the 8th pick could be a top three type talent in other years.

You could be right. As long as it's the BPA, who cares? Lindor "falling" to 8th is IMO pretty much a lock. I'm just not convinced he's the BPA at #8.

I mentioned Julius Gaines before. Has a ways to go with the bat but by reports and video, he's at least Lindor's equal with the glove. He's got a video on youtube. Reminds me of Brandon Phillips pysically. He's from the ATL area so maybe daingean can give a scouting report. My best case scenario is the BPA at #8 & Gaines in the 2nd. Even if the stick doesn't develop we've seen what the result of great D is on the big club this year.


I have not seen Gaines play as Locust Grove is well over an hour away. Locust Grove is also AAA (my son plays on a AAAAA team + my son is a 2013 grad). He does play for the Atlanta Blue Jays (coached by Jermaine Dye's brother) which is a good program (Tim Beckham came out of that program). Maybe I'll catch him at ECB. From browsing the WWBA results (major wood bat tournament), he appeared to hit well including a few XBH.

Edit: Oops Gaines plays for Luella (which is also in Locust Grove) and they are AAAAA. They did lose to one (earlier) of the teams in our region.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Apr 19, 2011 12:59 pm

Rocky55 wrote:You could be right. As long as it's the BPA, who cares? Lindor "falling" to 8th is IMO pretty much a lock. I'm just not convinced he's the BPA at #8.

I mentioned Julius Gaines before. Has a ways to go with the bat but by reports and video, he's at least Lindor's equal with the glove. He's got a video on youtube. Reminds me of Brandon Phillips pysically. He's from the ATL area so maybe daingean can give a scouting report. My best case scenario is the BPA at #8 & Gaines in the 2nd. Even if the stick doesn't develop we've seen what the result of great D is on the big club this year.


Well it's obviously early as we've mentioned, but BA does rank Lindor the 7th best prospect in this draft, so a very good case could be made for him being BPA. Course it's how the Tribe views him, not BA but still about the best we have to go on at this time. Based off some reports scouts are saying he could have 20 HR potential in his bat too, which to make makes him a great top 10 pick and possibly top 5. I am not convinced he gets past the Royals or Nationals if the draft happens today.


Don't know enough about Gaines, but you make him sound intriguing.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Tue Apr 19, 2011 2:28 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:You could be right. As long as it's the BPA, who cares? Lindor "falling" to 8th is IMO pretty much a lock. I'm just not convinced he's the BPA at #8.

I mentioned Julius Gaines before. Has a ways to go with the bat but by reports and video, he's at least Lindor's equal with the glove. He's got a video on youtube. Reminds me of Brandon Phillips pysically. He's from the ATL area so maybe daingean can give a scouting report. My best case scenario is the BPA at #8 & Gaines in the 2nd. Even if the stick doesn't develop we've seen what the result of great D is on the big club this year.


Well it's obviously early as we've mentioned, but BA does rank Lindor the 7th best prospect in this draft, so a very good case could be made for him being BPA. Course it's how the Tribe views him, not BA but still about the best we have to go on at this time. Based off some reports scouts are saying he could have 20 HR potential in his bat too, which to make makes him a great top 10 pick and possibly top 5. I am not convinced he gets past the Royals or Nationals if the draft happens today.


Don't know enough about Gaines, but you make him sound intriguing.

I guess I'm skeptical of Lindor's bat. I've heard reports of KC being on Starling. You might be right on the Nats though. There are an awful lot of good pitchers that might be there at #8 plus bats that profile as much better than Lindor's. Not saying I'd hate getting Lindor but he's a lot more projection than some of the others. His bat, I mean. Nobody doubts the defense.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Tue Apr 19, 2011 2:47 pm

As of right now it looks like the top 3 will be Rendon, Cole, & Bundy. Bundy's got major helium. It's possible now that even pburgh might pop him at #1. Why not? With Rendon's injury history & Cole not dominating, it's possible. It shouldn't affect us as Bundy was considered top 5 anyway. Things are heating up. The draft is 7 weeks away.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby elrod enchilada » Tue Apr 19, 2011 5:17 pm

One thing to like about Lindor: he just turned 17, the same age as most HS juniors. There is a ton of development between 17 and 18. Look at all the 17 year-olds from last year who have shot up the draft board this spring, like Taylor Guerieri, or even, to an extent, Dylan Bundy.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Apr 19, 2011 6:54 pm

Rocky55 wrote:As of right now it looks like the top 3 will be Rendon, Cole, & Bundy. Bundy's got major helium. It's possible now that even pburgh might pop him at #1. Why not? With Rendon's injury history & Cole not dominating, it's possible. It shouldn't affect us as Bundy was considered top 5 anyway. Things are heating up. The draft is 7 weeks away.


Well I guess there's a first time for everything....but no High School RHP has ever gone 1st overall in the draft and only two lefties have (one never having made the MLs). After going HS righties with each of their first two picks last year....I'd be shocked if the Pirates went Bundy #1 overall.

I agree though, Bundy (barring something major) doesn't look like he'll be there at 8 so where he goes doesn't matter a whole lot.

Biggest wildcard to me is Arizona......2 picks in the top 7....how much money are they willing to spend...
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue Apr 19, 2011 7:34 pm

The draft is only 7 wks away. Didnt realize it's that close but who gets signed by the Tribe will probably come in August. There will be some major talent on the board when the tribe several guys who have gotten top pk considerations will possibly be there like Springer, possibly Rendon bc injuries, Purke, and Starling. Still early but closing in fast at the same time. I'd guess the Tribe goes arm but you never know... The system is absolutely packed full as is. But can't ever have enough good arms. Tribe will probably be able to snag some top rated talent with their first few pks.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby stayhumble » Tue Apr 19, 2011 8:05 pm

An observation:

If things remain the same for Rendon, at what point do evaluators reclassify him as a nice hitter, solid player, nothing special with minimal body projection and below-average home run potential. The basis for this observation is pretty simple. There are many solid college players hitting better overall, and many who have made the adjustment to BBCOR bats. The questions are:

Were the past BESR home runs well overstating HR power? At 5'11, not much height to add more muscle. Is Rendon, and a few others who are similarly struggling in that department exposed? Despite the pitch-around and intentional walks, there are enough official at bats to start questioning his rank. Who knows, if the coaches pitched to him, could his numbers eroded further as far as home run power? I personally wouldn't open up my checkbook and give seven figures unless I had more proof. Not much wood bat history, and a power struggle with BBCOR. Remember, the bat experts stated a good 40' distance reduction between the old bats and the current ones in use and a much smaller sweetspot to deal with.

As of now, there are about 30-40 college hitters who are combining batting average and home runs in D1 baseball, and many are actually doing better with BBCOR because they had more polished swings with the old bats, several who told me in the past that you had to really work on the side with wood all year long to keep attuned to delivering the barrel, or sweetspot while others relied on "metal bat swings".

I can list 10-20 guys with room for body development(muscle adds) who have height, have a solid past and present body of hitting work and average or above other tools. Many scouts have stated that you almost have to throw some of the past book out on home run power and look deeper into overall hitting, on-base capabilities, BB/K and contact rates.

If the 2011 draft ends up closely matching hype lists from the past few college seasons of BESR hitting, and no major adjustments are made by this revelation caused by equipment change, then some clubs may end up throwing good money away.

The other aspect is matchups, which are difficult to gauge. You have a hitter bombing away at JMU, but a closer look into who is pitching against him is a concern. Someone throwing 85 and straight isn't Bradley, Cole, Meo, Chafin, Hultzen, Pope, Jungmann, etc. but more like BP?

Maybe I will throw some names out later. Another concern is Bradley Jr. Overall average in tools, a few swing flaws, and a current batting average below .300 makes me wonder if ESPN and the CWS overstated him also.

My 2011 pre-season thoughts on BBCOR were simple. If you can hit .350 or better with 10 home runs plus and have some success against a couple tough pitchers, then you have the hitting goods to take to the next level. That is my criteria for hitters in this upcoming draft.

If you want some verification, just comb through some team stats and you mostly will see 4-5 starters on each team with no BBCOR home run power, and you will see many batting averages well below the .300 mark. Those who are excelling at average and power are the guys who are a step above.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Apr 19, 2011 8:06 pm

Rocky55 wrote:I guess I'm skeptical of Lindor's bat. I've heard reports of KC being on Starling. You might be right on the Nats though. There are an awful lot of good pitchers that might be there at #8 plus bats that profile as much better than Lindor's. Not saying I'd hate getting Lindor but he's a lot more projection than some of the others. His bat, I mean. Nobody doubts the defense.


KC does make a ton of sense for Starling....though I'm not sure how much of the talk is actually the Royals or just the fact that he's from Kansas and is a bit of the 'local boy' of sorts. They obviously are willing to spend...but who knows how much (Starling could cost well over $5M to get away from Nebraska).

I don't disagree that other prospects' bats profile better than Lindor's....but it's best player, not best bat IMO. Yes the Tribe needs big bats, but not a fan of focusing solely on a player's bat because of that need.

I am intrigued by Springer. Comparable to a young Kearns. Hopefully would develop better though.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby stayhumble » Thu Apr 21, 2011 8:30 am

Take Player A and Player B.

Their respective BESR college hitting stats prior to 2011 based on 250 official at bats looks like this:

PLAYER A has a line of .347/.418/.672 with 19 HR's and a Contact Rate of 72.8%(strikes out 27.2%)

PLAYER B has a line of .343/.400/.572 with 10 HR's and a Contact Rate of 81.3%(strikes out 18.7%)

One of these hitters is listed to be 1st round, possible Top 10 in the 2011 Draft.

In 2011 with BBCOR, current stats projected at 250 official at bats looks like this:

PLAYER A would have a line of .348/.426/.608 with 9 HR's and an improved CR of 83.2%

PLAYER B would have a line of .371/.473/.589 with 14 HR's and an improved CR of 86.1%

Other notes:

PLAYER A with BBCOR shows overall hitting improvement, less HR's but more doubles. The BESR
EBH statline was 16/4/19 and now projects at 30/4/9

PLAYER B with BBCOR shows overall hitting improvement, more HR's, less doubles. The BESR EBH statline
was 23/2/10 and now projects at 15/2/14

Both players are athletic, 6'3 and around 205 pounds with room to grow, both are outfielders, Player A runs
a little faster and Player B has a better plus plus throwing arm.

If Player A is a 1st rounder, where would you draft Player B?
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby ClevBuck » Thu Apr 21, 2011 5:11 pm

Sterling-top 3 pick
Springer-5 tool player-master of none-will be a 4th OF at best
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu Apr 21, 2011 6:08 pm

Mlbtraderumors.com reported Matt Purke is shut down indefinitely, will see James Andrews bc of shoulder soreness.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Apr 21, 2011 6:31 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:Mlbtraderumors.com reported Matt Purke is shut down indefinitely, will see James Andrews bc of shoulder soreness.


I saw this. Doesn't sound good. would be a potential mid-late round flyer pick now possibly.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Thu Apr 21, 2011 9:06 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
homerawayfromhome wrote:Mlbtraderumors.com reported Matt Purke is shut down indefinitely, will see James Andrews bc of shoulder soreness.


I saw this. Doesn't sound good. would be a potential mid-late round flyer pick now possibly.

Has he been injured all year? Really been underwhelming. He's worth the flyer pick but I drop dead if he signed. Turned down Texas to go to TCU? Unless he panics(don't think he will) or we offer him top 5 money(don't think we will/should) he just gets his procedure done & sits out a year. Doesn't mean it will work out for him, just think that's what he'd do.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby ClevBuck » Fri Apr 22, 2011 10:22 am

Does anybody think we would pass on Matt Purke? I have a hard time seeing it, he is still dominating and the only reason he is dropping is his delivery which can be fixed
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby daingean » Fri Apr 22, 2011 10:27 am

ClevBuck wrote:Does anybody think we would pass on Matt Purke? I have a hard time seeing it, he is still dominating and the only reason he is dropping is his delivery which can be fixed


Some deliveries are uncorrectable. Also if there is already damage in the shoulder, that puts up HUGE alarms for me. TJ surgeries happen all the time and guys come back stronger but shoulder surgeries end careers. I say pass on Purke.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Apr 22, 2011 12:16 pm

Rocky55 wrote:Has he been injured all year? Really been underwhelming. He's worth the flyer pick but I drop dead if he signed. Turned down Texas to go to TCU? Unless he panics(don't think he will) or we offer him top 5 money(don't think we will/should) he just gets his procedure done & sits out a year. Doesn't mean it will work out for him, just think that's what he'd do.


I agree here. Plus he is only a sophomore so he's got 2 more drafts he can enter, so no rush on his part to sign. I agree too, no way do we or should we offer top 5 money to him. I'd be hesitant to offer more than $1M.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby jellis » Fri Apr 22, 2011 1:23 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:Has he been injured all year? Really been underwhelming. He's worth the flyer pick but I drop dead if he signed. Turned down Texas to go to TCU? Unless he panics(don't think he will) or we offer him top 5 money(don't think we will/should) he just gets his procedure done & sits out a year. Doesn't mean it will work out for him, just think that's what he'd do.


I agree here. Plus he is only a sophomore so he's got 2 more drafts he can enter, so no rush on his part to sign. I agree too, no way do we or should we offer top 5 money to him. I'd be hesitant to offer more than $1M.



I also agree, you have to pass on a delivery that needs to be completely redone, unless he is going to be cheap to sign
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby petes999 » Fri Apr 22, 2011 2:03 pm

Personally, I would like to gamble on a HS pitcher with our depth in pitching to have that second wave start in 2015 (4 years) - when all of Carmona, Carrasco and Masterson are gone and Knapp, White, Pom, Barnes, DeLaCruz and Rondon all have had their shot of making it (with a few missing out).

However, we will probably go that college pitcher route as there are so many this year. Even though it is our depth, it seems to be the area that we have gotten good at drafting if it isn't a soft tossing lefty like a Sowers and even a Huff. Really, those are the only two pitchers we have missed on in a while if you count Miller (other than an unforseen finger issue) and Guthrie who proved himself after we released him due to bad negotiation in signing him to a ML contract limiting our option years.

Yes, we can do Springer but he just seems like a upgraded version of Snyder (northern college program without the elite competition that gets his HR rate up). Lindor could be a good gamble but our SS weakness is in the upper level and we have Rodriquez and Wolters who will be filling out our system soon but are probably not ready by spring 2014 when AC is a FA - and neither will Lindor as he won't really play until 2012 in LC. So, we will need Wolters or Rod. to fly through our system, or we will be trading our pitching for SS&OF to compete when Pom, White, Knapp, Masterson, Carrasco and Carmona are all around.

At least with college pitcher, we will have trade bait to get a SS if AC leaves via FA due to our penny pinching ways.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby jellis » Fri Apr 22, 2011 2:21 pm

petes999 wrote:Personally, I would like to gamble on a HS pitcher with our depth in pitching to have that second wave start in 2015 (4 years) - when all of Carmona, Carrasco and Masterson are gone and Knapp, White, Pom, Barnes, DeLaCruz and Rondon all have had their shot of making it (with a few missing out).

However, we will probably go that college pitcher route as there are so many this year. Even though it is our depth, it seems to be the area that we have gotten good at drafting if it isn't a soft tossing lefty like a Sowers and even a Huff. Really, those are the only two pitchers we have missed on in a while if you count Miller (other than an unforseen finger issue) and Guthrie who proved himself after we released him due to bad negotiation in signing him to a ML contract limiting our option years.

Yes, we can do Springer but he just seems like a upgraded version of Snyder (northern college program without the elite competition that gets his HR rate up). Lindor could be a good gamble but our SS weakness is in the upper level and we have Rodriquez and Wolters who will be filling out our system soon but are probably not ready by spring 2014 when AC is a FA - and neither will Lindor as he won't really play until 2012 in LC. So, we will need Wolters or Rod. to fly through our system, or we will be trading our pitching for SS&OF to compete when Pom, White, Knapp, Masterson, Carrasco and Carmona are all around.

At least with college pitcher, we will have trade bait to get a SS if AC leaves via FA due to our penny pinching ways.



I was with you to a degree till penny pinching, come on this time is fun and exciting and no one is going no one to blame but our selves. I still take a Lindor or a Swihart, both upsides are great. Lindor I see as a switch, escobar who can hit and will have HR pop that should be in the 10-15 range. Swihart has a big bat and could end up having elite powr
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Fri Apr 22, 2011 5:00 pm

At least the Purke injury come out sooner rather than later. I'm saying he's been pitchng hurt just trying to make it 'til payday (2011draft).

I'd love to see the Tribe take a chance on one of the high school guys and draft aggressively like last yr. There's a lot of depth in the system. I don't think Dylan Bundy will still be on the board but drafting a guy like him Blake Swihart, Travis Harrison, Archie Bradley, Derek Starling or Daniel Norris would be nice to see for a change. Personally I believe we see the Tribe take someone like Jed Bradley, Taylor Jungmann or Matt Barnes.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby stayhumble » Sat Apr 23, 2011 9:36 pm

There are a handful of college hitters that currently qualify under these criteria. A batting average of .350 or better, an OPS of 1.000 or better, a Contact rate of 85% or better, and walks exceeding strikeouts.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Sun Apr 24, 2011 2:32 pm

I know there are a lot out there that refuse to believe Bauer is a better prospect than Cole, but Gerrit Cole had a rough go of things vs. Stanford this Thursday; 6.1 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K. On the other hand, Bauer does 9 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 17 K.

Side note: There was probably some serious velo thrown with Cole and Mark Appel Thursday night. Would have been awesome to see that one in person. I would be willing to bet there were more GM's and scouting directors in the stands than usual for that one, as Mark Appel is a top name for next year -- guys may have wanted to double-dip to get a glance at two guys in one night. That could have hurt Cole as it was a bad outing.

I know I've had my say on Cole already, but I really question Baseball America saying he's got a "plus-plus" slider. I've seen him pitch and I've seen his arm action -- really don't think it's much more than major league average. For a guy that throws 93-97 mph consistently, if he truly had a "plus-plus" slider (or a plus change as noted by another), he'd be striking more guys out than just 76 in 71 innings. He's really not dominating the way he should if you're to believe BA's analysis of him. Cole is a fastball pitcher and as he advances, I think he'll have difficulty putting away pro batters in the upper levels unless he really breaks through with his off-speed pitches. I think there's a lot of Kool-Aid drinkers on Gerrit Cole. Bauer is better.

A little report on old draft item Burch Smith in case some have forgotten; saw him yesterday. I think he's got the make-up to be a good major league starter -- he's got a good arm, good delivery and his breaking pitches show a tendency to snap well (potentially plus pitches). The bigger issue on him is command; it's going to need to improve. It will be interesting to see if Cleveland wishes to revisit him around the 3rd round. I wonder what the asking price was last year on him; I think the $725k or whatever spent on Blair would have been better invested in Smith, but that's more $$ than either are/were worth, in my opinion.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby petes999 » Sun Apr 24, 2011 4:04 pm

If I am not mistaken, I think Tony hinted that the Indians thought they met Smith's demand (don't know the $ but it was up there) and he choose at the end to go back for the experience.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Sun Apr 24, 2011 4:56 pm

Couple of guys I saw recently:

BA Vollmuth: Big, athletic, reminds me of a young Cal Ripken. Broad shoulders, long limbs. Moves well at SS for his size, will play 3B at the next level IMO. Should fit well there. Murders fastballs, waved at low & away breaking balls. Needs work on contact/pitch selection. Lots of upside. Might be a 1st Round pick based on ability, big bust potential IMO.

Grayson Garvin: The "other" Vandy starter. Big lefty, hit 94 a couple of times. Sat around 90. Reminds me of Minor, another LHP from Vandy. I like him better than Minor. Good command guy, 66IP, 49H, 12BB, 61K's. Could be at the ML level by the end of '12.

Also saw Mikie Mahtook again. Really like this kid. Grady with a better arm. Would immediately be our top position spec IMO.

Aaron Westlake could be Thome's kid, but a lot more athletic. Has a lot of discipline for a power hitter. Can put the bat on anything.

OB, you need to stop worrying about bonuses. Whatever the market will bear.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Sun Apr 24, 2011 7:52 pm

I've seen your comments on Mahtook before. Playing at LSU, he's been on TV a lot. Took note of him as a freshman b/c his upper body was so strong and he had a very good frame to grow into. The guy is very strong. He could be taken around where the Indians pick first. Do you take him?

What do you think of Jason Esposito? His tools really intrigue me; defensively his arm is quite impressive, he can run and has a nice swing with good bat speed. However, at 3b I think he's a bit undersized, at 2b his arm is not utilized, at ss he can't hang (really struggled this year). To me, 3b is his position w/o much question, but while I want to call him a poor man's David Wright, I have a feeling he's just going to be a AAAA guy.

Sorry, but I can't help but focus on signing bonuses. If this was the Yankees or Red Sox, it's less of an issue but this is the Indians. I took issue with some of the signing bonuses handed out last year by the Indians. I don't like paying $2.50 for a bottle of Coke when I can get one across the street for $1.75. You do that everyday, you'll eventually regret it when you see something you can't afford.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Sun Apr 24, 2011 9:42 pm

I like Mahtook more than most so yeah, I'd take him at 8. Almost all of the experts would disagree but what the hell. They all like Springer better. In Mahtook I see a guy who's really good & still has upside. They're all gambles but you're better off gambling on talent.

Esposito's a 3B no question. He has to be a 3B as a pro. He's really locked in right now with the bat, 21 game hit streak. Before that, early in the season, he was below .300 & the peripherals weren't good either. Probably draft year jitters. He's big enough, bigger than Rendon. Looks like he should be a solid pro. High floor, medium ceiling. Could be wrong but I don't see an All-Star type bat.

Like your Coke analogy. Difference for me is that the draft is like eating fast food compared to the upscale dining of Free Agency. We can afford anything on the Wendy's menu. The Cokes are lots cheaper than the Champagne at the fancy restaurants.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby stayhumble » Sun Apr 24, 2011 9:48 pm

Spent a little time looking at some stats, not tools, looking for consistency in hitters, looking for complete hitters, polished, not one-dimesional. Here was the criteria:

Currently must have a BBCOR batting average of .350 or better to qualify. Wanted the analysis to currently eliminate pretenders of the older bats and those still struggling to adjust.

The next criteria was OPS. The hitters has to be 1.000 or better. Not seeking just the bombers, but guys who can drive the ball, get extra-base hits and at the same time get on base.

The next criteria was a contact rate at 85% or better. Wanted the group to include hitters that don't have huge holes in their swing, which led to the next criteria, walks equal to or exceeding strikeouts. Wanted the hitters to display a good eye and pitch recognition.

To date in 2011 under BBCOR, I came up with 21 qualifiers that at least have faced and had some success against some decent pitching. Some of the names you have heard of. Also, of these 21, the names with an asterisk * also perfomed and achieved all these criteria in 2010 under BESR, so they show consistency as well as true ability where the bat change mattered very little so far.

Pretty impressive one freshman made the list, Moran from UNC. By the way, Rendon missed the 2011 list by fractions of contact rate, but he should correct that before the end of the season.

Again, this is a crude analysis, but what it shows is how difficult it is to meet all 4 criteria at the same time.

*Chad Zurcher Memphis
Ross Heffley WCU
Eric Phillips   Georgia So.
*GULBRANSEN, Daniel   Jacksonville
Kevan Smith PITT
O'Brien, Chris   Wichita State
*Jason Krizan Dallas Baptist
Ben Thomas Xavier
*PANIK Joe St.Johns
Wong, Kolten   Hawaii
Jeff Holm Michigan St.
Sibley, Tyler   Texas State
*KLAFCZYNSKI, Ben   Kent State
CRON, CJ, Utah
Tyler Robbins Dallas Baptist
*Tommy La Stella CCU
RICKLES, Nick Stetson
Matt Skole Georgia Tech
FREEMAN, Ronnie   Kennesaw St.
TANIS,Jacob Mercer
Colin Moran UNC
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Mon Apr 25, 2011 6:01 pm

Kevin Goldstein from Baseball Prospectus says Trevor Bauer might be a top 3 pk. I cant argue against his stats, but 135 pitches is just too much for a major league pitcher let alone a young arm like him. I'd definately consider him, but for the Tribe it might be too big a risk to consider him if he were there. If a team does draft him that high I would not be too shocked to see him rushed to the majors.
I like Bauer but his pitch counts are too high for a young or older arm. He's got stuff and good velocity but his delivery is odd much like Tim Lineccum. For a team like Cleveland playing it safe is probably a better bet, but if Grant went this route (Bauer) It would be because he falt he could impact the big club soon and was comfortable with all the other stuff... pitch counts, delivery, workouts.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Lloyd Christmas » Mon Apr 25, 2011 7:23 pm

Would be very surprised if Bauer was there and the Indians passed on him. Appreciate all the breakdowns of players youve seen as well as the stats.
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