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2010 Arizona Fall League Thread

Talk shop about the various prospects and teams that make up the Cleveland Indians organization.

Re: 2010 Arizona Fall League Thread

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Nov 16, 2010 1:27 pm

ha, wasn't saying trade Kipnis because he's a lefty...nor that we needed to get a right-handed bat for him (Donald and Phelps are still at 2B).

Morseo than the lefty thing, can Kipnis really maintain a BABIP over .360? Granted he was over .350 in 2009 as well....but that's not an easy number to maintain no matter the swing you have.

What I was more getting at is that we do have depth at 2B, a position that's not easy to fill for a lot of teams. Kipnis is the best of the bunch.....I'm saying we should let teams know that you're willing to listen to offers on him.

Tony brought up that Indians fans are overrating him in prospect rankings.....I disagree at least somewhat. Yes, some fans may be overrating him based off a great year....but it's not just Indians fans doing this. All around baseball people (both writers and scouts) have been raving about Kipnis....some even posing the question of him being a better prospect than Ackley (per baseball prospectus). If you can turn him into a front line starter, you have to strongly consider it IMO.
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Re: 2010 Arizona Fall League Thread

Postby TonyIBI » Tue Nov 16, 2010 4:09 pm

Hermie13 wrote:Tony brought up that Indians fans are overrating him in prospect rankings......


You may be mixing up my recent comments on Phelps with Kipnis. I'm very much on the Kipnis bandwagon, and have been mentioning him for awhile as the possible #1 in the system for 2011.
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Re: 2010 Arizona Fall League Thread

Postby elrod enchilada » Wed Nov 17, 2010 9:42 am

Tony--

It seems like Cord Phelps is putting up superstar number in the AFL, but it is hard to know how impressive they actually are because we do not know if this is a league where players routinely put up gonzo numbers. Does every team have a few guys like Phelps with OPS over 1000 or is what Phelps doing truly exceptional?

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Re: 2010 Arizona Fall League Thread

Postby TonyIBI » Wed Nov 17, 2010 9:57 am

elrod enchilada wrote:Tony--

It seems like Cord Phelps is putting up superstar number in the AFL, but it is hard to know how impressive they actually are because we do not know if this is a league where players routinely put up gonzo numbers. Does every team have a few guys like Phelps with OPS over 1000 or is what Phelps doing truly exceptional?

Elrod


It's a notorious hitters league. Every year guys put up some big numbers. I mean look at McBride last year.

It's good where you get a chance to compare the players up against other higher level competition. And you want the players to perform. However, the numbers don't really affect a guy's prospect standing, no matter how great or bad they are. It's all about auditioning the talent in front of tons of scouts and them seeing the tools.....the numbers are just a bonus.

Given Phelps' season in 2010, his numbers in the AFL are not a surprise. In some ways, you expect it. The real key is how his defense is going, and more importantly how 3B is going. When things wrap up I will see what some internal and external observers thought of him at 3B.
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Re: 2010 Arizona Fall League Thread

Postby elrod enchilada » Wed Nov 17, 2010 10:10 am

Thanks, Tony.
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Re: 2010 Arizona Fall League Thread

Postby elrod enchilada » Wed Nov 17, 2010 10:14 am

Just wondering: If Kipnis was not in our system, wouldn't we be penciling in Phelps as our likely 2b for the next decade (or until free agency) and all feel pretty good about the position going forward?
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Re: 2010 Arizona Fall League Thread

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed Nov 17, 2010 10:30 am

...Does every team have a few guys like Phelps with OPS over 1000 or is what Phelps doing truly exceptional...
Every team..no.. every year.. yes.. When you look at the results from the recent past there are a couple of undeniable realities:

The top five hitters in the AFL each and every year.. are truly exceptional. The 2010 AFL Season is no different.

This year's stars are Dustin Ackey, Jose Linares, Brandon Belt, Cord Phelps and Ryan Culberson.. all have three slash lines that can only be described as superstar level. It should be noted that of those five, none have made a significant impact at the MLB level....yet...but history shows us something here.. it's not this year that we should expect to see them impact MLB..it's next year & the year after..and the year after that..so, with that in mind..

The 2009 AFL stars include Morel, Curtis, Tabata, Peterson and the Indians McBride... also, having three slash lines that are incredible. Of this group, the top three of the five have made it to MLB and are considered rising stars.

The 2008 AFL stars include E Young, the Indians Jason Donald, Morrison Baxter and Murphy.. again.. same kind of three slash lines, but all five of these guys have made it to MLB and continue to improve.

So, we may be looking at some interesting youngsters in the coming seasons...
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Re: 2010 Arizona Fall League Thread

Postby TonyIBI » Wed Nov 17, 2010 11:34 am

Just to keep things in perspective, Jason Donald is a prime example why you need to take "performance" in the AFL with a grain of salt. Good prospect? yes. But you can't get too caught up in the numbers, though of course you WANT to see good numbers.

In 2008 Jason Donald hit .407/.476/.747 with 5 HR & 17 RBI in 25 AFL games.
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Re: 2010 Arizona Fall League Thread

Postby gotribe31 » Wed Nov 17, 2010 1:16 pm

TonyIPI wrote:Just to keep things in perspective, Jason Donald is a prime example why you need to take "performance" in the AFL with a grain of salt. Good prospect? yes. But you can't get too caught up in the numbers, though of course you WANT to see good numbers.

In 2008 Jason Donald hit .407/.476/.747 with 5 HR & 17 RBI in 25 AFL games.


My opinion? Throw out the AFL #'s, especially for hitters. Its a useful scouting league in that you can watch some elite level guys get AB's against each other, but then there are teams that send crrrrrap as far as pitching prospects, knowing that it is a hitters league. Look at it on a more micro than macro level.
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Re: 2010 Arizona Fall League Thread

Postby TonyIBI » Wed Nov 17, 2010 1:20 pm

gotribe31 wrote:My opinion? Throw out the AFL #'s, especially for hitters. Its a useful scouting league in that you can watch some elite level guys get AB's against each other, but then there are teams that send crrrrrap as far as pitching prospects, knowing that it is a hitters league. Look at it on a more micro than macro level.


Yeah, if anything, numbers from your good hitting prospects should be expected. More focus should be put on the guys who don't hit that should be. And yeah, while there are some very good pitching prospects, it's not like the creme de la creme are being sent to the AFL. Typically the league is littered with more hitting top prospects than pitchers, or at least how I have seen it.
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Re: 2010 Arizona Fall League Thread

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Nov 17, 2010 1:45 pm

TonyIPI wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:Tony brought up that Indians fans are overrating him in prospect rankings......


You may be mixing up my recent comments on Phelps with Kipnis. I'm very much on the Kipnis bandwagon, and have been mentioning him for awhile as the possible #1 in the system for 2011.


Meant overrating him in respects to the league, not in the Indians system. I wouldn't be suprised if a few publications have him as a top 35 prospect in all of baseball (would make him a blue chip prospect IMO, which is what you said Kip was not). Others probably won't have him top 50 though. Some team may see him and think left-handed Pedroia, can't hurt to shop around and see.
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Re: 2010 Arizona Fall League Thread

Postby TonyIBI » Wed Nov 17, 2010 1:47 pm

I'm not sure Kipnis is a blue chipper. To be a true blue chipper, you gotta play some pretty damn good defense and be well rounded. No doubt he can hit....but remains to be seen how the rest of his game turns out.
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Re: 2010 Arizona Fall League Thread

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Nov 17, 2010 1:56 pm

TonyIPI wrote:I'm not sure Kipnis is a blue chipper. To be a true blue chipper, you gotta play some pretty damn good defense and be well rounded. No doubt he can hit....but remains to be seen how the rest of his game turns out.


For the record, I agree with you on Kip.
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