Arizona Fall League Thread

[Hermie13]

I still think he'll manage at 3B. A lot of 3B sturggle defensively at in the minors. Not saying he'll stick there forever at the pros, but could see a Thome-like start to his career (not saying offensively, just defensively). Start at 3B then eventually down the road move across the diamond.

[jellis]

I still think he'll manage at 3B. A lot of 3B sturggle defensively at in the minors. Not saying he'll stick there forever at the pros, but could see a Thome-like start to his career (not saying offensively, just defensively). Start at 3B then eventually down the road move across the diamond.

please tell me the guys who struggled and are now solid, I am always curious to look at stats

The only player in the majors with more errors at 3B was mark Reynolds with 6 more in 30 more games.

thome had all of 15 errors in his worst minor league year at 3B, his range factor was over .6 higher in his worst year than Hodges

this isnt a guy whose a little shaky at 3B, this is like if you had garko at 3B

All signs point to he just cant play there, his numbers in the minors defensively are worse then Reynolds and Encarnaction the 2 worst fielding 3b in baseball, and it only gets harder on the higher levels as players get faster and stronger

[Hermie13]

Fields are in better condition though. Plus remember, Hodges is learning a NEW position in 3B. He was a SS in college and we converted him to 3B. Give him some time. Makes no sense to move him to 1B right now.

Range Factor isn't the best stat to use when looking at a guy's range.

[Duane Kuiper]

Fields are in better condition though. Plus remember, Hodges is learning a NEW position in 3B. He was a SS in college and we converted him to 3B. Give him some time. Makes no sense to move him to 1B right now.

Range Factor isn't the best stat to use when looking at a guy's range.

Try again. Hodges was a 3B all 3 years in college.
http://ramblinwreck.cstv.com/sports/m-b ... wes01.html

RF and FP is all we have for minor league players. It's that or nothing.

[dazindiansfanuk]

Rough day for Lofgren again today - a combination of poor defense and poor control.

His outing went as follows: -

Error
HBP
Sac Bunt
Walk
Walk (run scores)
Error by Lofgren allows 2 runs to score
Walk

Leaves after 0.1IP with the bases loaded and 3 runs already in - all unearned. Threw just 10 strikes in his 26 pitches. The defense doesn't help (including his own error), but the lack of control is not encouraging.

EDIT: A triple scores all 3 of Lofgrens stranded runners, but all 6 total runs scored are unearned.

[Hermie13]

Wes Hodges was drafted as a SS in 2003. He did move in collge but he's still learning a new position. He did play some SS at Georgia Tech as well. Here's the report on him I found from before the season (so obviously things change):

Drafted as a shortstop out of Georgia Tech in the 2nd round of the 2006 draft, Hodges is a professional line-drive hitter with a very quick bat and an explosive, level swing. He has good hands and a plus arm at third base, with acceptable range for the corner, which means he's likely to stay there as the Indians continue to groom him for the MLB duty that was once Andy Marte's destiny.

Bit off as he was listed as a 3B coming out of GT....

I'd rather look at FP than range factor. Not saying his FP is great at 3B (it's def not), but his .925 from a year ago isn't terrible. He DEF needs to bring it up from what he did this year, but I have faith the Tribe can get it straightened out.

Time will tell though.....as will need. Lack of a high level 3B's in the system will cause him to stay there for the time being....

[Duane Kuiper]

A .925 FP at 3B would have been the 2nd worst in all of the ML for 3B.

That's terrible. There's no way to sugar coat it.

His .899 for 2008 would be worse than any ML 3B.

And moving from SS to 3B is not that hard. Three years should be plenty. Many SS have done it in the ML.

[Hermie13]

Thome was down around that though in the minors. Same with Peralta at 3B. There's a difference between a bad FP in the minors and majors.

In his last full season in the minors, Adrian Beltre had an .895 FP at 3B.....and he's now a two-time gold glover (yeah he was a lot younger than Hodges that year, but still a very bad FP nevertheless).

At the age of 23, Casey Blake had an .895 FP in 121 games. No GGer but stuck at 3B throughout most of his career and is pretty steady there.

I agree it's not that hard a move, but not everyone takes to it as quickly. Tribe doesn't want to move Peralta for this reason. Hodges should improve, needs a bit more work and time...and he'll get it next year.

[Duane Kuiper]

I'll take that bet (he'll get it next year).

Corey Smith never got to an acceptable level at 3B in a decent timeframe.

[Hermie13]

I'll take that bet (he'll get it next year).

Corey Smith never got to an acceptable level at 3B in a decent timeframe.

What? He's gonna be playing 3B at Columbus.....so yeah, he'll be getting the work he needs to improve at 3B.

Corey Smith also never had an OPS over .770.....Hodges's has been over .820 in each of his two pro seasons. It wasn't his defense that the Tribe was more concerned about, it was his hitting (though his defense was very bad).

[Duane Kuiper]

I'll take that bet (he'll get it next year).

Corey Smith never got to an acceptable level at 3B in a decent timeframe.

What? He's gonna be playing 3B at Columbus.....so yeah, he'll be getting the work he needs to improve at 3B.

Corey Smith also never had an OPS over .770.....Hodges's has been over .820 in each of his two pro seasons. It wasn't his defense that the Tribe was more concerned about, it was his hitting (though his defense was very bad).

I was talking about Smith's defense. Even if Smith hit he still wasn't a ML 3B defensively.

And there is a difference between getting work and actually improving. Some improve. Some never do. Hodges has shown zero improvement so far. We'll see if he can turn that around. I'm not so sure he can.

You can hide a bad defensive player at 1B because there are less balls to field. You can't hide him at 3B.

[Hermie13]

Branyan has remained at 3B for much of his career and was terrible. You can still hide bad defensive guys at 3B as long as they hit (see Encarnacion in Cincinnati). Hodges has only 2 years of pro ball under his belt. He's got time to improve.

[jellis]

Branyan has remained at 3B for much of his career and was terrible. You can still hide bad defensive guys at 3B as long as they hit (see Encarnacion in Cincinnati). Hodges has only 2 years of pro ball under his belt. He's got time to improve.

not a good example branyan has only once played in over a 100 games in a year so apparently people could not find a space for the bat and for a guy who has spent a lot of time in the minors his worst FP was 921, I am yet to read or hear from any scout who thinks hodges can play at 3B and lets face it hes not a super spec. With the way he cooled off and the average power outage he doesnt have a big enough stick to make up for terrible defense

[Hermie13]

Don't know about 'super' spec, but was a top 100 by BP just last year. A lot of scouts are still high on this guy and think he can stick at 3B.

[JP_Frost]

From the most recent BP chat with Kevin Goldstein:

buffum (Austin TX): Is Wes Hodges' defense as bad as it looks to Joe Sheehan: i.e., Corey Smiff level frying pan? Worse than Jorge Cantu or Garrett Atkins? Of the Marginal Lefty Brigade (Sowers, Laffey, Jackson, S. Lewis, Huff), which would be league-average starters in 2009?

Kevin Goldstein: No, it's not. I think I'd bet on Huff from that group.

Not really a definitive answer, but looking at errors and fielding % is a bad way to evaluate defense. It's bad for major leaguers, so it's even worse for guys in the minors. I think you'd have to rely on scouts more than defensive stats when it comes to prospects and how they handle themselves in the field.

[jellis]

Don't know about 'super' spec, but was a top 100 by BP just last year. A lot of scouts are still high on this guy and think he can stick at 3B.

no he wasnt might want to check before you say stuff like this, he received 2 votes total from there staff and would have been in the 180 range because of lack of votes his highest vote of the two was a 91

Even after his hot first half he didnt crack the top 100, next time you might want to check before throwing out info

[Hermie13]

He was ranked 78th in the pre-season by Baseball Prospectus. Check your facts.

[jellis]

He was ranked 78th in the pre-season by Baseball Prospectus. Check your facts.

shit my bad I read BA and not BP you could be right will have to check it

[dazindiansfanuk]

Has anyone been paying attention to Tommy Hanson in the AFL??

He pitched another 5 scoreless innings today allowing only 1 hit with 10Ks. His total numbers now: -

7GS, 5-0, 28.2IP, 10H, 2R/ER, 7BB, 49K, 0.63ERA

That it just flat-out sick! No wonder the Braves wouldn't include him for Peavy.

[JP_Frost]

the only knock on Hanson is his flyball tendency, but other than that, he's been god-like. His regular season numbers are amazing as well. How about Tyler Flowers btw? 12 homers, 1.400+ OPS as a catcher. Those 2 guys along with Heyward, Freeman and Schafer really form an incredible crop of minor league talent for the Braves.

[Hermie13]

Yeah, the Braves have a great young group. If I were them I'd just hold on to them. With Hudson being hurt in 2009 and recovering from TJ surgery the whole year, they might as well use it as a mini-rebuild year. They could be a huge threat in 2010 even without going after Peavy.

[jellis]

Worst part is heyward was the pick right after Mills, and it was a shock he was still there. Mills has been solid, but not talking Heyward will end up looking very bad

[JP_Frost]

Worst part is heyward was the pick right after Mills, and it was a shock he was still there. Mills has been solid, but not talking Heyward will end up looking very bad

It could definately look bad, but Heyward is still quite a few steps away from the majors, so alot can go wrong. That said, he's one of the top prospects in baseball and if he pans out, could become one of the best players period.

[MadThinker88]

Worst part is heyward was the pick right after Mills, and it was a shock he was still there. Mills has been solid, but not talking Heyward will end up looking very bad

A lot has been made over the past few years how this organization had more pitching prospects (including high-end) then hitting prospects. I can't fault the idea to draft a hitting prospect (like Mills) to shore up this weakness over yet another pitching prospect.
The only way that turns out badly is if the pitcher turns into a stud and the hitter can never contribute.

[Hermie13]

Worst part is heyward was the pick right after Mills, and it was a shock he was still there. Mills has been solid, but not talking Heyward will end up looking very bad

A lot has been made over the past few years how this organization had more pitching prospects (including high-end) then hitting prospects. I can't fault the idea to draft a hitting prospect (like Mills) to shore up this weakness over yet another pitching prospect.
The only way that turns out badly is if the pitcher turns into a stud and the hitter can never contribute.

um....Heyward is a hitter (plays OF), not a pitcher......


Heyward was a high school kid, whereas Mills was coming out of college. I liked the pick and still do. Tribe also was hoping he could stick at 3B as that was a need for us. Didn't work out, but he still has shown more HR power thus far than Heyward who hit only 11 last year at A ball.

[jellis]

Worst part is heyward was the pick right after Mills, and it was a shock he was still there. Mills has been solid, but not talking Heyward will end up looking very bad

A lot has been made over the past few years how this organization had more pitching prospects (including high-end) then hitting prospects. I can't fault the idea to draft a hitting prospect (like Mills) to shore up this weakness over yet another pitching prospect.
The only way that turns out badly is if the pitcher turns into a stud and the hitter can never contribute.

um....Heyward is a hitter (plays OF), not a pitcher......


Heyward was a high school kid, whereas Mills was coming out of college. I liked the pick and still do. Tribe also was hoping he could stick at 3B as that was a need for us. Didn't work out, but he still has shown more HR power thus far than Heyward who hit only 11 last year at A ball.

11 in low A for a high school kid shows more power than 21 from a collge guy at high A. heyward has the potential to be better than Mills at every facet and they drafted mills knowing he could not stick at 3B, it was a common fact. The issue was a money not talent issue

[MadThinker88]

Sorry about that. As I read this thread, for some reason (how exactly I don't know ) I got the idea that Heyward was a pitching prospect. Obviously, my bad.

[Hermie13]

11 in low A for a high school kid shows more power than 21 from a collge guy at high A. heyward has the potential to be better than Mills at every facet and they drafted mills knowing he could not stick at 3B, it was a common fact. The issue was a money not talent issue

True about the age, but don't forget that Mills was putting up 20+ HRs in college (which is on par with low-A ball as far as talent typically). Mills has as much or more power potential than Heyward. Not saying Mills is the better prospect, but the Tribe made a good decesion at the time to take Mills. And 11 HRs does NOT show more power than 21, doesn't matter what the age.


The Tribe drafted Mills thinking that once his arm issue healed up (he was coming off an injury) that he'd be able to play some 3B. He still has been, even this year. Definately not the position that he's gonna be playing for his career, but could see some time over there as a MLer.

[Hermie13]

Sorry about that. As I read this thread, for some reason (how exactly I don't know ) I got the idea that Heyward was a pitching prospect. Obviously, my bad.

ha, no worries dude. It happens to the best of us.

[lofgren09]

Tony do you know if they shut down Lofgren? He hasn't pitched in a long while

[TonyIBI]

Tony do you know if they shut down Lofgren? He hasn't pitched in a long while

Hmmm. Dunno. It is quite possible, especially since we are in the final days of the AFL. I'll be talking to him on-air this Thursday and perhaps I will ask him if this did occur. Good question.

[artgold]

11 in low A for a high school kid shows more power than 21 from a collge guy at high A. heyward has the potential to be better than Mills at every facet and they drafted mills knowing he could not stick at 3B, it was a common fact. The issue was a money not talent issue

True about the age, but don't forget that Mills was putting up 20+ HRs in college (which is on par with low-A ball as far as talent typically). Mills has as much or more power potential than Heyward. Not saying Mills is the better prospect, but the Tribe made a good decesion at the time to take Mills. And 11 HRs does NOT show more power than 21, doesn't matter what the age.


The Tribe drafted Mills thinking that once his arm issue healed up (he was coming off an injury) that he'd be able to play some 3B. He still has been, even this year. Definately not the position that he's gonna be playing for his career, but could see some time over there as a MLer.

Both are doing well so far, Heyward certainly had a very good year at Myrtle Beach in the South Atlantic League. Being three years younger than Mills gives him a step up in projections, but many batting prospects have a significant downturn in stats when advancing to the Carolina League, where Mills was this past season. This needs to be factored in too when evaluating talent.

For example, our own Nick Weglarz saw his slugging average drop from .497 to .432 when he jumped from Lake County to Kinston. The fact that Mills was able to jump from a Lake County slugging average of .435 to a Kinston slugging average of .499 is a good positive indicator of future ability.

[dazindiansfanuk]

Well, we wish Lofgren had been shut down.

Pitched today..... 4 batters faced, allowed a 2B and walked 3... gave up 3 earned without recording an out....ERA up to 32.14

[gotribe31]

For better or for worse, baseball is over for Chuck in 2008. Here's hoping he uses the time off to clear his head, regroup, and come back as the pitcher we all know he can be. Unless he is taken in the rule 5 draft

[jellis]

i still would be a bit shocked if hes taken,rule 5 is the land of power arm righties and lefty specialists

[Hermie13]

Someone may think they could use him as a lefty specialist though.......I doubt it....but crazier things have happened....