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How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby dnosco » Sat Feb 28, 2009 9:47 am

Brantley: Time will tell. Also, remember that size usually equals loss of speed so and HR power usually equals more Ks and, in a lot of cases, less walks. A lot of the intrigue with Brantley is his K/AB rate, which is unheard of. However, his BB/K rate is only marginal so you up the Ks and drop the BB rate some and that HR power better become significant, i.e., he becoms an extreme makeover. Could happen but, IMO, significantly lessens his chance to be a major leaguer whereas, as a slap hitter without gaining a lot of weight, he profiles as a solid 4th outfielder type.

Ozoria: BA LOVES to put that wringer in there, someone on nobody else's list, someone who is a trendy pick. Yeah, put him at 26-30 and pray that you look like a genius 5-6 years from now.

Haley: Bad pick at that spot. Not a bad draft pick (towards IIS's point about a long development path) but an overdraft who they overpaid for. Terrible pick for that price at that slot with Melville and many others available. That is a BIG reason why the baseball draft is a crapshoot, these guys constantly outthink themselves. Also, remember I am saying that Haley is not a bad baseball player, he was just drafted WAY too high and paid WAY too much money, WAY above slot...and with other top, top prospects available who more than likely would have signed for that money.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby artgold » Sat Feb 28, 2009 3:26 pm

Maybe, but my overall point of view is that this is the deepest I have seen the farm system in the 32 years I have been following the Indians. When I take a look at the mix of batters and pitchers, I don't recall ever seeing this much player depth. In addition, we have decent players close to the majors and a lot of possibilities further down in the system.

Adding in a decent major league club, and I think this depth of talent will be given the opportunity to push their way into the majors (always my preference) instead of hoping they can fill major league holes.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby indianinkslinger » Sat Feb 28, 2009 5:55 pm

artgold wrote:Maybe, but my overall point of view is that this is the deepest I have seen the farm system in the 32 years I have been following the Indians. When I take a look at the mix of batters and pitchers, I don't recall ever seeing this much player depth. In addition, we have decent players close to the majors and a lot of possibilities further down in the system.

Adding in a decent major league club, and I think this depth of talent will be given the opportunity to push their way into the majors (always my preference) instead of hoping they can fill major league holes.

I have made up my mind not to speculate about Brantley until I see him play in 3 weeks. How about it Art? Up to watching him on 3/22?

I really understand Dennis' point about Melville vs. Haley. Melville is clearly more advanced technically and has as much arm strength at this time. However, I think a case can easiy be made that Haley projects better as a TOR than Melville in the long run. As Dennis pointed out, we have already argued this to the point of exhaustion so no point continuing.

I really agree with you on the depth of talent, Art. What makes me happy is the potential high end talent which can force their way to the MLs. Maybe they all go bust like the 2002 RHs but there is no denying that the Indians drafted some high end projections in 2008. Much more agressive than they were earlier in the rebuilding process. I think Miller, Huff and LaPorta can reasonably be expected to force their way onto the 2009 ML roster at some point. I do believe that Meloan, Sipp, Crowe and Valbuena could do the same but there will probably be injury/performance issues for that to happen.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Off the reservation » Sat Feb 28, 2009 6:33 pm

Does it really matter where the Indians rank? Most years the highest ranking systems belong to the worst major league teams. Give me a bad minor league system that has two quality players per team moving up a class each year. Then to be load with overrated ball players who have a cup of coffee in the majors. How often does a prospect turn to a suspect, by the hundreds each year. Its a crap shoot so don't get so excited about the rankings, the only thing we should think about is a world championship.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby artgold » Sat Feb 28, 2009 6:36 pm

indianinkslinger wrote:I have made up my mind not to speculate about Brantley until I see him play in 3 weeks. How about it Art? Up to watching him on 3/22?

I really understand Dennis' point about Melville vs. Haley. Melville is clearly more advanced technically and has as much arm strength at this time. However, I think a case can easiy be made that Haley projects better as a TOR than Melville in the long run. As Dennis pointed out, we have already argued this to the point of exhaustion so no point continuing.

I really agree with you on the depth of talent, Art. What makes me happy is the potential high end talent which can force their way to the MLs. Maybe they all go bust like the 2002 RHs but there is no denying that the Indians drafted some high end projections in 2008. Much more agressive than they were earlier in the rebuilding process. I think Miller, Huff and LaPorta can reasonably be expected to force their way onto the 2009 ML roster at some point. I do believe that Meloan, Sipp, Crowe and Valbuena could do the same but there will probably be injury/performance issues for that to happen.


I have tickets for the A's and Dodgers, March 20th and 21st. Hopefully, I'll be able to figure out how they schedule stuff in Goodyear, and can catch seeing the prospects before and after then. Where can I/we catch them on March 22nd?
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby artgold » Sat Feb 28, 2009 6:43 pm

Off the reservation wrote:Does it really matter where the Indians rank? Most years the highest ranking systems belong to the worst major league teams. Give me a bad minor league system that has two quality players per team moving up a class each year. Then to be load with overrated ball players who have a cup of coffee in the majors. How often does a prospect turn to a suspect, by the hundreds each year. Its a crap shoot so don't get so excited about the rankings, the only thing we should think about is a world championship.


Disagree with you here, I think it matters quite a bit. Regarding your comment that the worst clubs have the highest ranked systems, last year Boston, Tampa, and the Yankees were in the top five systems.

A bad minor league system with two quality players per level gives you a dozen good prospects, and would make you at worse a middle of the pack minor league system.

I agree that a lot of prospects turn into suspects, however it is rare to see a good major league player who wasn't a highly regarded prospect.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby MadThinker88 » Sat Feb 28, 2009 7:40 pm

I would submit that a single year's ranking is not a big matter.
However, looking at rankings over a 5 yr or 10 yr period is an important matter. The extended time period tends to take away the volitility of the rankings.

Using Baseball America, I have been recorded the organizational rankings since 1999 (11 listings).
In that time the Indians avg rank is tied for 5th (with the Yankees) but over the last 5 years they are in 8th all by themselves.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby artgold » Sat Feb 28, 2009 7:47 pm

Which organization had the highest ranking over the 10 year period?
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby MadThinker88 » Sat Feb 28, 2009 7:51 pm

Its actually over 11 years at this point.
Team Avg Rank
Atlanta 5.909
Florida 8.455
Tampa Bay 9.727
Minnesota 9.818
Clev / NYY 11.636

I'll email you file with the full numbers Art (Tony already has a copy).
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby TonyIBI » Sun Mar 01, 2009 1:25 am

artgold wrote:I have tickets for the A's and Dodgers, March 20th and 21st. Hopefully, I'll be able to figure out how they schedule stuff in Goodyear, and can catch seeing the prospects before and after then. Where can I/we catch them on March 22nd?


The Triple-A and Double-A teams will have games in Goodyear on 3/22 (High-A and Low-A on the road)....so you should be able to see Brantley then.

FYI, I have the minor league spring schedule which I will be posting on Monday.

Also, I agree with both of you that this is probably the best shape this farm system has been in since I have been old enough to remember watching/listening to baseball. Not only lots or top end talent near major league ready, but lots more top end talent at just about every level and some very good depth at every level. The bullpen and starting pitching options from Columbus all the way down to Lake County is incredible to me.

Going to be a fun and exciting year to see how things shake out....who suceeds/fails, who progresses/regresses, who breaks out, and so on.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby indianinkslinger » Sun Mar 01, 2009 8:59 am

artgold wrote:
indianinkslinger wrote:I have made up my mind not to speculate about Brantley until I see him play in 3 weeks. How about it Art? Up to watching him on 3/22?

I really understand Dennis' point about Melville vs. Haley. Melville is clearly more advanced technically and has as much arm strength at this time. However, I think a case can easiy be made that Haley projects better as a TOR than Melville in the long run. As Dennis pointed out, we have already argued this to the point of exhaustion so no point continuing.

I really agree with you on the depth of talent, Art. What makes me happy is the potential high end talent which can force their way to the MLs. Maybe they all go bust like the 2002 RHs but there is no denying that the Indians drafted some high end projections in 2008. Much more agressive than they were earlier in the rebuilding process. I think Miller, Huff and LaPorta can reasonably be expected to force their way onto the 2009 ML roster at some point. I do believe that Meloan, Sipp, Crowe and Valbuena could do the same but there will probably be injury/performance issues for that to happen.


I have tickets for the A's and Dodgers, March 20th and 21st. Hopefully, I'll be able to figure out how they schedule stuff in Goodyear, and can catch seeing the prospects before and after then. Where can I/we catch them on March 22nd?

I understand they will be playing the Rockies at the Rockies complex on 3/22. I am looking at some property in Tucson and will be driving from there directly to the stadium if things go as planned. I hope you get it figured out so you can tell me because i was intending to spend the off day Monday to look at prospects. :s_drinks
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby cardiackidz » Sun Mar 01, 2009 10:28 am

the farm system is in its best shape sense the early john hart days in my oppinion. i dont think the indians have the high end talent now that they did then. i think they have better pitching now then they did then in the sytem.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby artgold » Sun Mar 01, 2009 12:35 pm

indianinkslinger wrote:I understand they will be playing the Rockies at the Rockies complex on 3/22. I am looking at some property in Tucson and will be driving from there directly to the stadium if things go as planned. I hope you get it figured out so you can tell me because i was intending to spend the off day Monday to look at prospects. :s_drinks


Sounds good to me! Look forward to it.

Thought you were in NC though...going out west is a big adjustment (take it from me).
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby artgold » Sun Mar 01, 2009 12:47 pm

Consigliere wrote:Also, I agree with both of you that this is probably the best shape this farm system has been in since I have been old enough to remember watching/listening to baseball. Not only lots or top end talent near major league ready, but lots more top end talent at just about every level and some very good depth at every level. The bullpen and starting pitching options from Columbus all the way down to Lake County is incredible to me.

Going to be a fun and exciting year to see how things shake out....who suceeds/fails, who progresses/regresses, who breaks out, and so on.


I have stuff going all the way back to when the top prospects were guys like Alfredo Griffin and Nate Puryear (how's that for a "way back" machine). What you notice about the Tribe during all this time is that they never have a good balance in their farm system. Even when it was very highly rated in the past it was always either batting or pitching oriented (mostly batting). This is the best balanced prospect laden system I can remember. When looking at the impact that ending steroid use has had on offensive performance, it makes you realize that guys like Mills, LaPorta, Weglarz and Santana may actually end up being plus major league batters. Unlike what frequently happened in the past, the major league team is pretty competent too, so there is no need to rush these guys and ruin their confidence by (1) putting them over their heads and (2) making them feel that the future fate of the franchise is in their hands.

A great example of what I am referring to here is Adam Miller. What he has gone through would have been a tragedy for past Indians teams, but this one has the talent to say to him "let's try the bullpen first and see if this helps get away from the injury problem". We may end up with another Dave Righetti here, or possibly allow him to get past the injury problems and subsequently become an ace starter. In the past, we would have forced the issue and possibly (likely) have continued the injury risk (see Harden).
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Mar 02, 2009 10:09 am

dnosco wrote:Brantley: Time will tell. Also, remember that size usually equals loss of speed so and HR power usually equals more Ks and, in a lot of cases, less walks. A lot of the intrigue with Brantley is his K/AB rate, which is unheard of. However, his BB/K rate is only marginal so you up the Ks and drop the BB rate some and that HR power better become significant, i.e., he becoms an extreme makeover. Could happen but, IMO, significantly lessens his chance to be a major leaguer whereas, as a slap hitter without gaining a lot of weight, he profiles as a solid 4th outfielder type.

Ozoria: BA LOVES to put that wringer in there, someone on nobody else's list, someone who is a trendy pick. Yeah, put him at 26-30 and pray that you look like a genius 5-6 years from now.

Haley: Bad pick at that spot. Not a bad draft pick (towards IIS's point about a long development path) but an overdraft who they overpaid for. Terrible pick for that price at that slot with Melville and many others available. That is a BIG reason why the baseball draft is a crapshoot, these guys constantly outthink themselves. Also, remember I am saying that Haley is not a bad baseball player, he was just drafted WAY too high and paid WAY too much money, WAY above slot...and with other top, top prospects available who more than likely would have signed for that money.


ok, a 1.8 BB/K rate is marginal.....on what planet?!? If you meant BB/PA I could buy that....

And I bet you'll see his BB rate go up once he's in the majors and entering his mid-20s, just like Grady. And with size/power, you don't always lose speed (at least in young guys in their 20s). Guys run less sometimes but doesn't mean they lost any speed. It's more age than size that causes loss of speed (Canseco was HUGE when he came into the league and stole 40 bases in a year).


And Melville dropped all the way to the 4th round. So it wasn't just the Tribe that had little interest in drafting him in the 2nd round.....or even the 3rd round. Also gonna wait til Melville throws a pro pitch before I get upset about the picks.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby dnosco » Mon Mar 02, 2009 12:39 pm

My bad. I meant to say what I have said all along: His BB to AB ratio is only marginal. Do you agree with that? Do you agree with the rest of the points re what increase in power will mean to his BB/AB and K/AB ratios?
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Mar 02, 2009 2:17 pm

dnosco wrote:My bad. I meant to say what I have said all along: His BB to AB ratio is only marginal. Do you agree with that? Do you agree with the rest of the points re what increase in power will mean to his BB/AB and K/AB ratios?


ha, alright, figured that what you meant but wasn't positive.

Do I agree?.......yes and no.

His BB/AB ratio really is not bad at all (or 'marginal' as you say)...in fact, for a leadoff type guy it's very good (as I proved before). Now will it remain where it is? That's hard to say. Could see even more walks depending on his spot in the lineup (though I don't think he'll ever have the power to be a 4-5 guy and get loads of walks).

An increase in power could actually mean a greater BB/AB ratio. Guys like Grady saw there's go way up with the increase in power from their late-teen/early 20s years. Grady was always more of a K-guy than Brantley but still saw it go up more with the power.....though it's also hard to compare the A-AA pitching to ML pitching.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby indianinkslinger » Mon Mar 02, 2009 2:56 pm

I should probably have my head examined for commenting on the Melville/Haley issue further but here goes. I watched these guys before the draft and had distinct impressions that I have since reviewed. There is no question in my mind that Melville was the more advanced pitching prospect. His mechanics and location were far superior to Haley's. My guess was that Melville's ceiling was not as high but that he was more likely to reach it. It is possible that Melville could become a TOR starter but I would hedge my bet and stay with MOR. At the time, there was no question in my mind that Haley could be TOR and I never saw him throw the change. To me, it makes a huge difference that he was throwing what has been called an "average" change. I formed my opinion solely on the two pitches he threw, both of which had plus potential. I cannot describe how awful Haley's mechanics were. On top of that issue, he had an overload of "Texas testosterone" and overthrew everything. But Haley has the better projection although less likely than Melville to reach it IMO. This really holds true if the change is as advertised. Frankly, the reports of the change surprise me somewhat.

Who will be better? Cannot tell, at all IMO. To be honest, 2008 is the first time that I think the Indians did not take the safe route in many years. Don't let Melville's fall to 4th round fool you. I would have said supplemental to early 2nd based on his ability at the time. It is difficult for me to figure out the economics that factored into both selections but I would guess the Indians knew exactly what it would cost to sign Haley but cannot say the same about Melville.

Want some more interesting speculation? Who will be ML ready first? Melville or House?
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Mar 02, 2009 3:31 pm

indianinkslinger wrote:I should probably have my head examined for commenting on the Melville/Haley issue further but here goes. I watched these guys before the draft and had distinct impressions that I have since reviewed. There is no question in my mind that Melville was the more advanced pitching prospect. His mechanics and location were far superior to Haley's. My guess was that Melville's ceiling was not as high but that he was more likely to reach it. It is possible that Melville could become a TOR starter but I would hedge my bet and stay with MOR. At the time, there was no question in my mind that Haley could be TOR and I never saw him throw the change. To me, it makes a huge difference that he was throwing what has been called an "average" change. I formed my opinion solely on the two pitches he threw, both of which had plus potential. I cannot describe how awful Haley's mechanics were. On top of that issue, he had an overload of "Texas testosterone" and overthrew everything. But Haley has the better projection although less likely than Melville to reach it IMO. This really holds true if the change is as advertised. Frankly, the reports of the change surprise me somewhat.

Who will be better? Cannot tell, at all IMO. To be honest, 2008 is the first time that I think the Indians did not take the safe route in many years. Don't let Melville's fall to 4th round fool you. I would have said supplemental to early 2nd based on his ability at the time. It is difficult for me to figure out the economics that factored into both selections but I would guess the Indians knew exactly what it would cost to sign Haley but cannot say the same about Melville.

Want some more interesting speculation? Who will be ML ready first? Melville or House?


Not really your opinion. It's impossible to say with any certainty really about any two prospects who will be better.

The fact that Melville dropped so far tells me there was something that scared teams. Maybe it was signablility issues or maybe it was something with his stuff (though didn't appear so).
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby JP_Frost » Mon Mar 02, 2009 6:26 pm

just for those who have the book ... where did they rank the Indians system?
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby MadThinker88 » Mon Mar 02, 2009 7:43 pm

JP_Frost wrote:just for those who have the book ... where did they rank the Indians system?


BA listed the Tribe organization 7th for 2009.
Must say I was a little surprised by that. After some of the other comments that had been reported, I was expecting a 5th place ranking for this year.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby artgold » Tue Mar 03, 2009 1:17 am

MadThinker88 wrote:
JP_Frost wrote:just for those who have the book ... where did they rank the Indians system?


BA listed the Tribe organization 7th for 2009.
Must say I was a little surprised by that. After some of the other comments that had been reported, I was expecting a 5th place ranking for this year.



I was a bit surprised with how highly they ranked Texas, especially considering how far their top prospects are from the majors.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Mar 03, 2009 9:55 am

I wasn't at all suprised with Texas. They have a prospects that are still close to the majors and should be there no later than 2010. Not really much further away than some Indians prospects other than LaPorta and Huff really.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby indianinkslinger » Tue Mar 03, 2009 2:01 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
indianinkslinger wrote:I should probably have my head examined for commenting on the Melville/Haley issue further but here goes. I watched these guys before the draft and had distinct impressions that I have since reviewed. There is no question in my mind that Melville was the more advanced pitching prospect. His mechanics and location were far superior to Haley's. My guess was that Melville's ceiling was not as high but that he was more likely to reach it. It is possible that Melville could become a TOR starter but I would hedge my bet and stay with MOR. At the time, there was no question in my mind that Haley could be TOR and I never saw him throw the change. To me, it makes a huge difference that he was throwing what has been called an "average" change. I formed my opinion solely on the two pitches he threw, both of which had plus potential. I cannot describe how awful Haley's mechanics were. On top of that issue, he had an overload of "Texas testosterone" and overthrew everything. But Haley has the better projection although less likely than Melville to reach it IMO. This really holds true if the change is as advertised. Frankly, the reports of the change surprise me somewhat.

Who will be better? Cannot tell, at all IMO. To be honest, 2008 is the first time that I think the Indians did not take the safe route in many years. Don't let Melville's fall to 4th round fool you. I would have said supplemental to early 2nd based on his ability at the time. It is difficult for me to figure out the economics that factored into both selections but I would guess the Indians knew exactly what it would cost to sign Haley but cannot say the same about Melville.

Want some more interesting speculation? Who will be ML ready first? Melville or House?


Not really your opinion. It's impossible to say with any certainty really about any two prospects who will be better.

The fact that Melville dropped so far tells me there was something that scared teams. Maybe it was signablility issues or maybe it was something with his stuff (though didn't appear so).

This post is neither well thought out or accurate IMO. It is not only possible, you do it all the time.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Mar 03, 2009 2:22 pm

indianinkslinger wrote:This post is neither well thought out or accurate IMO. It is not only possible, you do it all the time.


lol, i NEVER say anything on here with certainty. In fact, I always say 'you never know'.

I was pointing out that you were right. Was just saying it's not just 'your' opinion, since no one can say with certainty who will be better.

You just love picking fights don't you? :s_empathy
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby dnosco » Tue Mar 03, 2009 3:37 pm

"Not really your opinion. It's impossible to say with any certainty really about any two prospects who will be better."

You are right. It is also impossible to say whether the Earth will be here tomorrow. Point is that this is not an argument that has any weight as it is impossible to tell whether anything will happen at any time, if at all.

It seems that people want to inject randomness into the baseball draft that isn't really there. For example, I am pretty sure that Pedro Alvarez will have a better baseball career than Kevin Rucker. It has also been shown that the round a player is drafted in, and where in that round, is more or less proportional to his chances of making it to the majors. Exceptions exist but, as a general rule, it applies.

Your statement above IS an absolute. It is incorrect, no matter how you want to dance around it.

Melville will have a better ML career than Haley, and one that starts sooner, than Haley. I stand by that prediction and don't cover myself with 'you never know', just in case I am wrong which, in my case, at least, would mean that many other 'experts' were wrong, too.

Regarding why players drop, I have seen a catcher drop 5 rounds based on an unsubstantiated repoprt that he was going to need arm surgery, a report that was totally untrue.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Mar 03, 2009 4:10 pm

dnosco wrote:"Not really your opinion. It's impossible to say with any certainty really about any two prospects who will be better."

You are right. It is also impossible to say whether the Earth will be here tomorrow. Point is that this is not an argument that has any weight as it is impossible to tell whether anything will happen at any time, if at all.

It seems that people want to inject randomness into the baseball draft that isn't really there. For example, I am pretty sure that Pedro Alvarez will have a better baseball career than Kevin Rucker. It has also been shown that the round a player is drafted in, and where in that round, is more or less proportional to his chances of making it to the majors. Exceptions exist but, as a general rule, it applies.

Your statement above IS an absolute. It is incorrect, no matter how you want to dance around it.

Melville will have a better ML career than Haley, and one that starts sooner, than Haley. I stand by that prediction and don't cover myself with 'you never know', just in case I am wrong which, in my case, at least, would mean that many other 'experts' were wrong, too.

Regarding why players drop, I have seen a catcher drop 5 rounds based on an unsubstantiated repoprt that he was going to need arm surgery, a report that was totally untrue.



soooo apparently you're rule about where guys were drafted doesn't apply here? One of your exceptions I take it?

Saying Melville's career will start sooner (ML career, as Haely's pro career in fact started before Melville's) is not saying much. Melville is in KC and has a much better chance of getting to the majors quicker than Haley, even if everything else was equal.

Not saying that's the only reason (cause it's not), but a big one. Now about who will have the better career? eh, I can easily see Haley being better.


And no one here is comparing Alvarez (and #5 overall pick) to a guy like Rucker (a 47th round pick). They're comparing a guy drafted in the 2nd round to a guy drafted in the 4th round.....and saying they think the guy in the 2nd round has as good or better shot as the 4th round guy to be a solid MLer. How is that randomness? :s_scratchhead


I respect your opinion on Melville (even if I don't really show it in posts). Melville was a first round talent that fell to the 4th round. The Indians felt they had a much better chance at signing Haley and they were likely right. They signed their 2nd round pick for the same as KC signed their 4th.

And I'd be willing to bet the Tribe would NOT have been able to sign Melville for that had they taken him in the 2nd round. Main reason he didn't go to college and signed was because KC took him (he's from Missouri).

Tribe made the smart move here for themselves as a club.

Who will be better? Very likely could be Melville. But I can guruantee this, Haley will be better than an empty space had Melville gone to college....which according to most people close to the draft was a certainty had any team but the Royals drafted him.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby indianinkslinger » Tue Mar 03, 2009 4:40 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
indianinkslinger wrote:This post is neither well thought out or accurate IMO. It is not only possible, you do it all the time.


lol, i NEVER say anything on here with certainty. In fact, I always say 'you never know'.

I was pointing out that you were right. Was just saying it's not just 'your' opinion, since no one can say with certainty who will be better.You just love picking fights don't you? :s_empathy

What are you talking about? Is this some kind of "stream of consciousness" approach? If there is any logical continuity to your string of posts, it completely eludes me. Not trying to pick a fight, I just do not understand what you are trying to say. Whatever your subtext that you believe you are including, it just is not apparent to this reader. Judging from other poster's responses, I do not think I am the only one. Put simply, whatever you are trying to say is not necessarily evident by the words you choose to convey those thoughts. :s_whiteflag
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Mar 03, 2009 5:08 pm

indianinkslinger wrote:What are you talking about? Is this some kind of "stream of consciousness" approach? If there is any logical continuity to your string of posts, it completely eludes me. Not trying to pick a fight, I just do not understand what you are trying to say. Whatever your subtext that you believe you are including, it just is not apparent to this reader. Judging from other poster's responses, I do not think I am the only one. Put simply, whatever you are trying to say is not necessarily evident by the words you choose to convey those thoughts. :s_whiteflag


I was pointing out that it really wasn't just your opinion (you said 'IMO'). Was saying that it's not really an opinion that one could be better than the other. then said that it's impossible to say with any certainty really what prospect will be better. Not sure how exactly this didn't get across. My choice of words were a tad confusing I guess, but shouldn't have been really (did forget commas, my bad...but not like anyone else remembers the proper place for those in every post).

I was agreeing that you can't say or necessarily tell who will be better. It does appear Melville has the upper hand (and inside track to the majors based on club he's with).

Point is though, it's wait and see with both players. Both show great fastballs and good secondary stuff (Melville's curveball is better though...at least at this point). Both were gonna be tough to sign, as both had college commitments. However, Melville was clearly gonna be the tougher one to convince to skip college and sign....
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby indianinkslinger » Tue Mar 03, 2009 6:06 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
indianinkslinger wrote:What are you talking about? Is this some kind of "stream of consciousness" approach? If there is any logical continuity to your string of posts, it completely eludes me. Not trying to pick a fight, I just do not understand what you are trying to say. Whatever your subtext that you believe you are including, it just is not apparent to this reader. Judging from other poster's responses, I do not think I am the only one. Put simply, whatever you are trying to say is not necessarily evident by the words you choose to convey those thoughts. :s_whiteflag


I was pointing out that it really wasn't just your opinion (you said 'IMO'). Was saying that it's not really an opinion that one could be better than the other. then said that it's impossible to say with any certainty really what prospect will be better. Not sure how exactly this didn't get across. My choice of words were a tad confusing I guess, but shouldn't have been really (did forget commas, my bad...but not like anyone else remembers the proper place for those in every post).

I was agreeing that you can't say or necessarily tell who will be better. It does appear Melville has the upper hand (and inside track to the majors based on club he's with).

Point is though, it's wait and see with both players. Both show great fastballs and good secondary stuff (Melville's curveball is better though...at least at this point). Both were gonna be tough to sign, as both had college commitments. However, Melville was clearly gonna be the tougher one to convince to skip college and sign....

I'll drink to both sentiments. :s_drinks I probably should have been clearer that I agreed with the Indians choice but if I was betting money on who gets there first it would be Melville.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby dnosco » Wed Mar 04, 2009 1:32 am

"The Indians felt they had a much better chance at signing Haley and they were likely right. They signed their 2nd round pick for the same as KC signed their 4th."

Immediately pre-draft ratings had Melville about the 15th best prospect and Haley the 125th best prospect, or so.

Let's not judge it on round drafted but on ability. Melville signs for the same bonus, is a much more highly rated prospect. I am thinking it is pretty clear who is more likely to have the better career. Who has the better career? I already weighed in on my prediction which is based solely on the ratings, not the round drafted.

BTW, you made the general statement, I just took it to the extreme to show how you can't make general statements like that which exclude all consideration of context. THAT was my point in the Alvarez/Rucker comparison but, to some extent, it was valid in the Melville/Haley comparison. One was overdrafted and vastly overpaid for his draft slot (Haley) and one was underdrafted and paid about what he should have been paid for his talent (Melville). Who got the better value? Who would have gotten the better value if they drafted Melville and couldn't sign him, based on what I think of Haley? I think the answer to the first one is KC and the answr to the second one is Cleveland, as they would get that pick back next year, essentially.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Mar 04, 2009 10:04 am

indianinkslinger wrote:I'll drink to both sentiments. :s_drinks I probably should have been clearer that I agreed with the Indians choice but if I was betting money on who gets there first it would be Melville.


Agree with both statements there too.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby indianinkslinger » Mon Mar 09, 2009 10:59 pm

I am going to leap into the lion's den. I got some excellent tape on Brantley today and I am really looking forward to seeing him play in 2 weeks. It is spring training so he is not facing real ML pitching but he has a quick bat, maybe the quickest in the organization. He is not a "slap hitter" per se. He waits a long time on the pitch because he can. This means a lot of balls hit to LF but I expect him to hit the ball sharply on most occasions. He does not have and is unlikely to develop HR power to LF IMO. He might be able to turn on certain pitches and projects some power early in the count with the right pitch. Any concerns that he is going to lose his speed as he adds muscle appears unfounded at this time. I do not him as a MOO. He looks to be top or bottom. I would guess that 10-15 HRs with a 420 -450 slugging and 800+ OPS wouldn't be too far off in the show. Whether this makes it into the Tribe starting OF in 2010 and beyond depends a lot on some better prospects such as LaPorta, Weglarz and Mills progress. I didn't see that much but he does not look like he is as weak defensively as he has been portrayed. :s_drinks
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby artgold » Tue Mar 10, 2009 10:13 pm

I realize there isn't much of a physical resemblance, but based upon the description of his plate approach, and going over the historical statistics again, besides Terry Puhl another Brantley projection match might be Len Dykstra. He was a left handed batter, super quick bat, waited until the last possible moment to start his swing, a short line drive stroke through the zone, and more walks than strikeouts.

Look at his power totals, walk to strikeout rate, and stolen base totals. This might also be a good projectable matchup for Brantley:


http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/dykstle01.shtml
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby indianinkslinger » Wed Mar 11, 2009 6:11 am

artgold wrote:I realize there isn't much of a physical resemblance, but based upon the description of his plate approach, and going over the historical statistics again, besides Terry Puhl another Brantley projection match might be Len Dykstra. He was a left handed batter, super quick bat, waited until the last possible moment to start his swing, a short line drive stroke through the zone, and more walks than strikeouts.

Look at his power totals, walk to strikeout rate, and stolen base totals. This might also be a good projectable matchup for Brantley:


http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/dykstle01.shtml

You could be right about this comp. Although the physical comparison is, as you say, limited, there is something to be said for the projection. Here is my issue. Dykstra was a CF. A hell of a CF. Brantley could be every bit the CF that Dykstra was and never play a day of CF in Cleveland. IMO, both Weglarz and LaPorta project better as corner OFs because of their power. That is the great equalizer. Even if you buy the argument about Grady's power in CF balancing out a leadoff hitter in LF, it seems you lose nothing by keeping Grady at the top of the order and keeping two power bats later in the order. In a way, it's a shame but he just might be a super 4th OF.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Mar 11, 2009 9:13 am

indianinkslinger wrote:You could be right about this comp. Although the physical comparison is, as you say, limited, there is something to be said for the projection. Here is my issue. Dykstra was a CF. A hell of a CF. Brantley could be every bit the CF that Dykstra was and never play a day of CF in Cleveland. IMO, both Weglarz and LaPorta project better as corner OFs because of their power. That is the great equalizer. Even if you buy the argument about Grady's power in CF balancing out a leadoff hitter in LF, it seems you lose nothing by keeping Grady at the top of the order and keeping two power bats later in the order. In a way, it's a shame but he just might be a super 4th OF.


I agree about the part with leaving Grady at leadoff.......somewhat.

I have no problem with him there if there's no better option, which we clearly do not have at this point.....


But Grady's OBP is 'only' around .375 due to a low BA (career .370). .375 is still one of the best in the league for a leadoff guy (Ramirez, Damon, Roberts, and Kinsler were the only ones better with more than 300 at-bats in the leadoff spot).....but a far cry from the .400+ that Lofton could put up in the 90s that made the Indians teams so great (yes, a lot of times it was .370-.380 though). I still have confidence that Grady can increase that BA and raise his OBP more......but Grady reminds me a lot of Robbie Alomar in the mid-to-late 90s. He's a guy that can leadoff and do it well......but really fits much better in the 3-hole with a more OBP-oriented leadoff guy. That 1999 offense may never be topped in Cleveland.....and was fueled by that speed at the top of the lineup with Lofton, Omar, and Grady.....man how I'd love to see that again (though I do love speed more than most....and no, I'm not talking about the drug, lol). Brantley, Cabrera/Valbuena, and Grady appears (on paper and in theory at least, which means nothing I realize) to have the makings of being 1999-eque.....


Now obviously Brantley may never even come close to a .400 or .380...or heck even a .360 OBP.....but if he can, I'd take him in LF over LaPorta or Weglarz (assumign one is in RF or both are in the lineup if one is at 1B). But I think I'm in the minority here.....
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby indianinkslinger » Wed Mar 11, 2009 5:20 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
indianinkslinger wrote:You could be right about this comp. Although the physical comparison is, as you say, limited, there is something to be said for the projection. Here is my issue. Dykstra was a CF. A hell of a CF. Brantley could be every bit the CF that Dykstra was and never play a day of CF in Cleveland. IMO, both Weglarz and LaPorta project better as corner OFs because of their power. That is the great equalizer. Even if you buy the argument about Grady's power in CF balancing out a leadoff hitter in LF, it seems you lose nothing by keeping Grady at the top of the order and keeping two power bats later in the order. In a way, it's a shame but he just might be a super 4th OF.


I agree about the part with leaving Grady at leadoff.......somewhat.

I have no problem with him there if there's no better option, which we clearly do not have at this point.....


But Grady's OBP is 'only' around .375 due to a low BA (career .370). .375 is still one of the best in the league for a leadoff guy (Ramirez, Damon, Roberts, and Kinsler were the only ones better with more than 300 at-bats in the leadoff spot).....but a far cry from the .400+ that Lofton could put up in the 90s that made the Indians teams so great (yes, a lot of times it was .370-.380 though). I still have confidence that Grady can increase that BA and raise his OBP more......but Grady reminds me a lot of Robbie Alomar in the mid-to-late 90s. He's a guy that can leadoff and do it well......but really fits much better in the 3-hole with a more OBP-oriented leadoff guy. That 1999 offense may never be topped in Cleveland.....and was fueled by that speed at the top of the lineup with Lofton, Omar, and Grady.....man how I'd love to see that again (though I do love speed more than most....and no, I'm not talking about the drug, lol). Brantley, Cabrera/Valbuena, and Grady appears (on paper and in theory at least, which means nothing I realize) to have the makings of being 1999-eque.....


Now obviously Brantley may never even come close to a .400 or .380...or heck even a .360 OBP.....but if he can, I'd take him in LF over LaPorta or Weglarz (assumign one is in RF or both are in the lineup if one is at 1B). But I think I'm in the minority here.....


I am not sure you are in the minority. I am not even sure the Indians would opt for power over a plate setter. What I do know is that most baseball people would prefer power from the LF position if two prospects are generally equal in overall ability. The same does not hold true for CF. Personally, I consider both LaPorta and Weglarz to be superior prospects at this time to Brantley. I believe both to have 30+ HR potential and have very good OB potential. I will not be surprised to see LaPorta in RF and Weglarz in LF. This is a club that had Manny in RF and Albert in LF. LaPorta and Weglarz are gold glove material by comparison. Part of this is because I see Mills at 1B. ST has convinced me he has project-able potential to be an above average ML 1B both offensively and defensively. Will that be good enough to hold off Brantley and move LaPorta or Weglarz to 1B? Damned if I know! My biggest impression of Brantley is that he is not a slap hitter and the increased muscle will not effect his speed materially. I do not think he is the second coming of Sizemore but i cannot rule it out either. The biggest question might be whether you want to take an extraordinary gift and change it just because he is capable of the change. I don't know the answer to that question either. Those fine distinctions are way above my pay grade.

Just an opinion but i think Sizemore and Brantley may have what i consider game changing speed. The same does not hold true for Cabrera/Valbuena who are just decent base runners. Choo, who is very aggressive, may be better than either.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Mar 12, 2009 8:11 am

I agree with most of what you said. I'm just not sold on Weglarz yet......well take that back, I'm sold on him having great potential and one day being a solid MLer.....just think he'll need more time in the minors and won't be up as quick as LaPorta, Brantley, and Mills.

Obviously I could be wrong here and he could blow away the field at AA......but he showed some struggles last year at Kinston offensively (though his plate discipline was still very good).

I agree too that LaPorta, Weglarz, and Mills are better prospects (at the moment at least) than Brantley.......

I wouldn't be shocked if one of those 3 is traded this summer though for a pitcher.....and I'd bet on Weglarz especially if he's having a good year at AA. I can see a lot of team's really being interested in his upside and potential (um....Blue Jays anyone? he is Canadian).


And a lot of this 'predicting' about where playing will be playing in a couple years also has to do with Choo. I mean, if he can keep hitting like he did in the 2nd half last year (which I'm not sold he can do but you never know), then does he ever lose his job?


As far as Choo's speed.....I agree. There was an article about who was able to go from 1st to 3rd on a single the most. Choo was top 5 in the league last year. He won't steal bases, but once his motor is going he can run.

If Cabrera can't become at least a 15-20 SB guy, I'm not convinced he'll stick as a starter with the Tribe......but we'll see there too....
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