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How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Talk shop about the various prospects and teams that make up the Cleveland Indians organization.

How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby dazindiansfanuk » Wed Jan 14, 2009 4:41 pm

A little reading not quite between the lines from a BA chat with ESPN.

Andy (Chicago, IL): When does the top 100 list come out? Which do you expect to have the most players on the list?

John Manuel: Top 100 comes out in late February and will feature a lot of Rangers, A's and Marlins. In fact, to me the top six-seven organizations really are a lot better than Nos. 9-30; there's a big dropoff. So those orgs will have the lions' share of players. I'm talking about orgs like Atlanta, Cleveland, Tampa Bay and San Francisco.


Greg (KC): So you have Cleveland's farm system ahead of KC's?

John Manuel: Oh yeah . . . the Royals have improved on the strength of a pricey-but-good 2008 draft class, but the upper levels of the KC system are still thin.


Looks like BA have the Indians in the top 7.

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=24557
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby JP_Frost » Wed Jan 14, 2009 4:43 pm

I think our system should be in the top 10, not really sure if it's top 7, but I guess there's very little difference there.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Jake Taylor » Wed Jan 14, 2009 5:01 pm

Where were we ranked last season? I know it was much lower than 7.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby dazindiansfanuk » Wed Jan 14, 2009 5:07 pm

If I remember correctly, I think it was 19th.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby GhostofTedCox » Wed Jan 14, 2009 5:13 pm

If you trade the Cy Young Award winner, and your starter at 3B for prospects; and sell Paul Byrd for money to sign your draft picks; you better have a top 10 system.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 14, 2009 5:16 pm

GhostofTedCox wrote:If you trade the Cy Young Award winner, and your starter at 3B for prospects; and sell Paul Byrd for money to sign your draft picks; you better have a top 10 system.


CC won the Cy Young in 2008?? ha

Twins traded Santana and weren't even top 15 last year, so doesn't always translate to great systems (I know they didn't do the other two things though).
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby dnosco » Wed Jan 14, 2009 5:53 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
GhostofTedCox wrote:If you trade the Cy Young Award winner, and your starter at 3B for prospects; and sell Paul Byrd for money to sign your draft picks; you better have a top 10 system.


CC won the Cy Young in 2008?? ha

Twins traded Santana and weren't even top 15 last year, so doesn't always translate to great systems (I know they didn't do the other two things though).


First, it is not WHERE the Twins were, it is where they were BEFORE the Santana trade that determines how much they jumped up. John Manuel detailed that quite nicely in his comments on the Royals who spent over $11 million on the draft according to the BA 2009 Almanac. BTW, in the Prospect handbook I had the Santana trade wasn't even included at that point. What list were you looking at when you found they weren't top 15?

Second, Ted Cox hits the nail on the head. Yes, they should be top 10 if they made the moves they made, given their base of prospects and how few actually graduated to the big leagues in 2008.

If we are happy we have a good farm system, then great. If we are patting ourselves on the back with how that farm system was constructed, that is bogus. Just like when we traded Bartolo and others, when you trade veterans, including the REIGNING Cy Young award winner (and 2008 BA ML player of the year for what he did in Milwaukee, BTW) your prospect ranking BETTER improve significantly. Plus, we all know that I think the CC trade was light in quality prospects coming back...I wonder where Gamel is going to rank in the top 100 and the Brewer's top 10 prospects?
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby jellis » Wed Jan 14, 2009 6:35 pm

dnosco wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:
GhostofTedCox wrote:If you trade the Cy Young Award winner, and your starter at 3B for prospects; and sell Paul Byrd for money to sign your draft picks; you better have a top 10 system.


CC won the Cy Young in 2008?? ha

Twins traded Santana and weren't even top 15 last year, so doesn't always translate to great systems (I know they didn't do the other two things though).


First, it is not WHERE the Twins were, it is where they were BEFORE the Santana trade that determines how much they jumped up. John Manuel detailed that quite nicely in his comments on the Royals who spent over $11 million on the draft according to the BA 2009 Almanac. BTW, in the Prospect handbook I had the Santana trade wasn't even included at that point. What list were you looking at when you found they weren't top 15?

Second, Ted Cox hits the nail on the head. Yes, they should be top 10 if they made the moves they made, given their base of prospects and how few actually graduated to the big leagues in 2008.

If we are happy we have a good farm system, then great. If we are patting ourselves on the back with how that farm system was constructed, that is bogus. Just like when we traded Bartolo and others, when you trade veterans, including the REIGNING Cy Young award winner (and 2008 BA ML player of the year for what he did in Milwaukee, BTW) your prospect ranking BETTER improve significantly. Plus, we all know that I think the CC trade was light in quality prospects coming back...I wonder where Gamel is going to rank in the top 100 and the Brewer's top 10 prospects?


you know gamel will be 1 or 2 and at this point I bet 2
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby MadThinker88 » Wed Jan 14, 2009 8:35 pm

Over the past few years according to BA, the Tribe system has been ranked:

2009: ?
2008: 19
2007: 10
2006: 9
2005: 7
2004: 6
2003: 1
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby TonyIBI » Wed Jan 14, 2009 11:16 pm

dnosco wrote:Second, Ted Cox hits the nail on the head. Yes, they should be top 10 if they made the moves they made, given their base of prospects and how few actually graduated to the big leagues in 2008.


Come on man.....so it BETTER be Top 10 even after you tore apart the draft, the LaPorta trade, and Blake trade? If all three of those brought back nothing spectacular as you have stated here several times the past few months, how can the system be BETTER? :s_smile

Just messin with ya Denny. And just maybe that Santana guy is the real deal (he is), and the Indians got a good haul for Sabathia (Brantley will be a star and the best player from that trade.....countless people outside the org telling me that this offseason). Brantley could be the Grady Sizemore of the Colon trade when all is said and done.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Jan 15, 2009 10:03 am

dnosco wrote:First, it is not WHERE the Twins were, it is where they were BEFORE the Santana trade that determines how much they jumped up. John Manuel detailed that quite nicely in his comments on the Royals who spent over $11 million on the draft according to the BA 2009 Almanac. BTW, in the Prospect handbook I had the Santana trade wasn't even included at that point. What list were you looking at when you found they weren't top 15?

Second, Ted Cox hits the nail on the head. Yes, they should be top 10 if they made the moves they made, given their base of prospects and how few actually graduated to the big leagues in 2008.

If we are happy we have a good farm system, then great. If we are patting ourselves on the back with how that farm system was constructed, that is bogus. Just like when we traded Bartolo and others, when you trade veterans, including the REIGNING Cy Young award winner (and 2008 BA ML player of the year for what he did in Milwaukee, BTW) your prospect ranking BETTER improve significantly. Plus, we all know that I think the CC trade was light in quality prospects coming back...I wonder where Gamel is going to rank in the top 100 and the Brewer's top 10 prospects?


You are right, it was before the Santana deal that they weren't top 10. Wonder how much they would have jumped though.

Tribe still got 3 quality prospects and a young filler in Jackson. Gamel won't be ranked higher than LaPorta in the top 100 (Escobar maybe). He'll be top 3 in Brewers system along with Escobar and Jeffries. One thing that would have been nice about having Gamel in Cleveland....he'd make Hodges look like a Gold Glover over at 3B, lol
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby dnosco » Thu Jan 15, 2009 12:55 pm

Consigliere wrote:
dnosco wrote:Second, Ted Cox hits the nail on the head. Yes, they should be top 10 if they made the moves they made, given their base of prospects and how few actually graduated to the big leagues in 2008.


Come on man.....so it BETTER be Top 10 even after you tore apart the draft, the LaPorta trade, and Blake trade? If all three of those brought back nothing spectacular as you have stated here several times the past few months, how can the system be BETTER? :s_smile

Just messin with ya Denny. And just maybe that Santana guy is the real deal (he is), and the Indians got a good haul for Sabathia (Brantley will be a star and the best player from that trade.....countless people outside the org telling me that this offseason). Brantley could be the Grady Sizemore of the Colon trade when all is said and done.


Thanks for messing with me. But, really, yeah, LaPorta is a prospect, Santana is a prospect, as is Brantley. But the projections these scouts give you, geez! Hey, we got legitimate prospects in those trades, we all know that. It wasn't like Jackson was the center of the CC deal or anything. My dislike of the CC deal has nothing to do with LaPorta not being any kind of a prospect. He, like Brantley, is a guy who can hit but plays positions (badly) that make him not a defensive plus. You just don't trade reigning Cy Young pitchers for a guy who has a big hole (at least one) in his game and then try to backfill with guys like Brantley, Bryson and Jackson. It should have been LaPorta and Gamel. I said it multiple times at the time and I am sticking with it. As far as Santana, time will tell. Likes like Max Ramirez to me (did you see the defensive ratings of minor league catchers? No one seems to want to quote that stuff because it is a significant negative against Santana's defense)

Regarding Brantley - Power used to be said to develop later in a player's career and you can make the Grady comparison to a numbers point. The difference is that I saw Grady in the minors and Grady was never a slap hitter like Brantley is. Power for slap hitters only comes in a bottle or a syringe and that ain't happenin' any longer. Left fielders with decent but not great plate discipline and no power and no defense can easily be named Jason Tyner. Not saying the Lofton comps won't come to pass, just saying that these scouts are way over the top based on everything I have read and the reasearch I have done showing Brantley to be exactly the slap hitter that Shapiro swears he is not.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby endlesssleeper » Thu Jan 15, 2009 1:11 pm

Left fielders with decent but not great plate discipline and no power and no defense can easily be named Jason Tyner. Not saying the Lofton comps won't come to pass, just saying that these scouts are way over the top based on everything I have read and the reasearch I have done showing Brantley to be exactly the slap hitter that Shapiro swears he is not.


If you call 50 BB's to 27 K's decent but not great plate discipline, I'd like to know what "great" plate discipline is.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Jan 15, 2009 1:39 pm

dnosco wrote:It should have been LaPorta and Gamel. I said it multiple times at the time and I am sticking with it. As far as Santana, time will tell. Likes like Max Ramirez to me (did you see the defensive ratings of minor league catchers? No one seems to want to quote that stuff because it is a significant negative against Santana's defense)

Regarding Brantley - Power used to be said to develop later in a player's career and you can make the Grady comparison to a numbers point. The difference is that I saw Grady in the minors and Grady was never a slap hitter like Brantley is. Power for slap hitters only comes in a bottle or a syringe and that ain't happenin' any longer. Left fielders with decent but not great plate discipline and no power and no defense can easily be named Jason Tyner. Not saying the Lofton comps won't come to pass, just saying that these scouts are way over the top based on everything I have read and the reasearch I have done showing Brantley to be exactly the slap hitter that Shapiro swears he is not.



Where would Gamel play in Cleveland? He's TERRIBLE at 3B....1B or DH maybe. but we got LaPorta who may very well be there next year plus Mills in AA. We needed a speed/top of the order guy so brantley was the perfect choice. Now if you want to make the case we should have held out of LaPorta and Escobar I can buy that. But not Gamel and LaPorta.

Santana may not be the best defensive catcher....but did throw out 27% of basestealers last year. Not too shabby for a guy learning the position (better than what Shoppach did for the tribe this year).


Slap hitters can still have power even when not on the juice. Won't be a 20 HR guy, but could put up 10-15 a year (Ichiro has done that twice and is a slap hitter). Brantley could never reach those numbers, but he's young enough to. If he can maintain an OPS around .800 as he's done, he'll be a welcome addition to this club.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby murt » Thu Jan 15, 2009 4:18 pm

Ichiro has tremendous power for his size. Saw him take BP last year against the Rockies in spring training, and he hit seven homeruns, five of which were legit bombs. He was the second last to hit, and the two thousand there to watch gave him a hearty clap as he exited the box. All Mariner media writers who see Ichiro regularly state his BP power is tremendous. Somewhat surprising that, in game, he puts a much higher value on obp, adjusting so obviously.

Whatever becomes of Brantley, likely 4th outfielder imo, he will never come close to Sizemore in the plate production realm. His progressions do not support power in any material way.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Jan 15, 2009 4:35 pm

murt wrote:Whatever becomes of Brantley, likely 4th outfielder imo, he will never come close to Sizemore in the plate production realm. His progressions do not support power in any material way.


People are misunderstanding what was Tony and others have said. Tony said that Brantlely could become the Grady of the deal....meaning he's the raw player that wasn't the main piece in the trade, yet becomes the star of the deal.

Grady (if you remember) was only 19 when we got him and still very raw. Phillips was the sure thing and Lee was the stud pitcher in the deal. THAT is what people are saying about brantley, not that he'll be the next Grady in terms of production....

No one thinks Brantley will be a 80+ RBI guy with 25+ HR power like Grady. But could be a star in his own right with an OBP of .380+, which is all he needs to do really.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby TonyIBI » Thu Jan 15, 2009 5:48 pm

Denny, do note, I did not mean to imply that Brantley would actually become the Grady Sizemore of the Colon trade where he is mashing 30+ homers....I was simply stating he likely will be the Grady Sizemore of the Colon trade as the high upside prospect but lesser value of the time who turns into the true star of the trade.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby murt » Thu Jan 15, 2009 7:55 pm

Many current commentators rank Brantley much lower than other Indians outfield prospects, unanimously cite his low power numbers in a supremely hitter-friendly Huntsville park, while noting his speed, contact abilities, instincts, etc. on the other side of the ledger. Assuming Brantley remains in the outfield, and absent a power surge that is not evident from his years 17-21, how can he become a star let alone an impactful starter given the trending MLB production realities attaching to each OF position? OBP is huge in the MLB calculus, for sure, yet it seems likely that much more will be needed to maintain superiority over never ending, aggressive challengers as a consistent OF starter from 2011-2017. Brantley, to become what Sizemore became as a trade component, in the way that this post expressly contemplates, will arguably need more dimension to his game, in the telltale area of power, that is all. His speed and hand-eye coordination, along with his makeup and other talents, excite many, justifiably. Hopefully, he finds more pop from age 22 forward, because without it, the odds are against him.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby jellis » Thu Jan 15, 2009 8:03 pm

doesnt he more or less project as a brian roberts type hitter
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Jan 16, 2009 9:52 am

I'd say more like Lofton than Brian Roberts. Lofton only 5 times in his career hit double digit HRs and never more than 15. His career OPS is under .800.....but hit .299 with a .372 OBP. He also wasn't a huge extra base guy, not a ton of doubles (though did have 30 a few times). Even so, was still a superstar in his day. Brantley's minor league numbers are as good as Lofton's (minus steals) and is 2 years younger than Lofton was at this point in his development....

Roberts doesn't have a lot of power....though did hit 18 a couple years ago (could have been juiced though). Roberts though tends to lead the league in doubles (over 50 this year). If Brantley can do that he'll surpass my expectations.....but think he'll be more likely to be around 25-30 at best......
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby TonyIBI » Fri Jan 16, 2009 10:06 am

murt wrote:Many current commentators rank Brantley much lower than other Indians outfield prospects, unanimously cite his low power numbers in a supremely hitter-friendly Huntsville park, while noting his speed, contact abilities, instincts, etc. on the other side of the ledger. Assuming Brantley remains in the outfield, and absent a power surge that is not evident from his years 17-21, how can he become a star let alone an impactful starter given the trending MLB production realities attaching to each OF position? OBP is huge in the MLB calculus, for sure, yet it seems likely that much more will be needed to maintain superiority over never ending, aggressive challengers as a consistent OF starter from 2011-2017. Brantley, to become what Sizemore became as a trade component, in the way that this post expressly contemplates, will arguably need more dimension to his game, in the telltale area of power, that is all. His speed and hand-eye coordination, along with his makeup and other talents, excite many, justifiably. Hopefully, he finds more pop from age 22 forward, because without it, the odds are against him.


Was Kenny Lofton a star?

Not saying he will be Lofton, but this is the type of offensive player he projects to become. His power is still developing and he has been 2-3 years younger than the league average his entire time in the minors, so his maturity has not caught up with the level. For some of these guys the power is the last thing to arrive. I mean, Brantley will start the season in Triple-A at age 21.

He is now just under 6'3" and is 195 pounds. He is adding more weight and is getting stronger. He is bigger than people think.

He may or may not become a good player, but from everyone I talked to at Huntsville this offseason who saw him and LaPorta everday they take him hands down over LaPorta and even a few of the non-Indians scouts I have been able to talk to the past few weeks echoed the same thing. They really believe he will end up a star and the better of the two players. We shall see.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Jan 16, 2009 10:18 am

Consigliere wrote:Was Kenny Lofton a star?

He is now just under 6'3" and is 195 pounds. He is adding more weight and is getting stronger. He is bigger than people think.


That question was sarcasm I hope.....


Anyone else find it odd how tall Brantley is? His dad was listed at 5-10 and 180lbs.......

I bring it up because his dad hit 33 HRs between AAA and the MLs in 1986 for the Mariners while stealing 26 bases. Hit 15+ a few other times as well. Not saying just because his dad Mickey did it that Michael will be the same type of player.....but he is bigger....so just something to keep in mind.....
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby dnosco » Fri Jan 16, 2009 2:46 pm

endlesssleeper wrote:
Left fielders with decent but not great plate discipline and no power and no defense can easily be named Jason Tyner. Not saying the Lofton comps won't come to pass, just saying that these scouts are way over the top based on everything I have read and the reasearch I have done showing Brantley to be exactly the slap hitter that Shapiro swears he is not.


If you call 50 BB's to 27 K's decent but not great plate discipline, I'd like to know what "great" plate discipline is.


Look at his BB/AB ratio. He doesn't have great plate discipline at all. That would be about 80 BB. Look at Weglarz for great plate discipline...and he was in A ball.

His BB/K stats are the point, really. If you are a slap hitter you will have low Ks but not necessarily high BB. What his low K numbers really show is that he has great bat control.

The guy that comes to mind is Mickey Rivers: http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rivermi01.shtml

Hey, having that kind of career is great and I would take it in a heartbeat from Brantley. But look at those OBP numbers even in his prime years. I think his upside is, well...Mickey Rivers without the defense. If you can live with that out of a LFer or a 1Bman then he may be a good fit.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Jan 16, 2009 2:56 pm

Brantley's upside is still Kenny Lofton. Can say he's not likely to reach it, but his numbers clearly support that arguement to this point.

Downside I've read Juan Pierre....which wouldn't be terrible (if you're not paying him like Pierre). Sounds about right when looking at his numbers thus far.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby dnosco » Fri Jan 16, 2009 6:18 pm

Hermie13 wrote:Brantley's upside is still Kenny Lofton. Can say he's not likely to reach it, but his numbers clearly support that arguement to this point.

Downside I've read Juan Pierre....which wouldn't be terrible (if you're not paying him like Pierre). Sounds about right when looking at his numbers thus far.


Hold on, big guy. His OFFENSIVE upside may be Kenny Lofton but his defensive upside is not as a centerfielder, which is what you would want with Kenny Lofton offensive upside. Heck, I am not sure right now he is better than Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell in LF from what I have read! (probably an exageration but maybe not)

If the Indians are satisfied with a potentially defensively challenged, rag arm left fielder who will probably not hit for power then Brantley may be the guy IF he can up his walk rate. I mean, even Crowe beats that because he is not defensively challenged and actualy has a little power.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Jan 16, 2009 6:53 pm

lol, try reading about the 2008 Brantley and not the 2007 one. He improved GREATLY according to all that saw him play. Even moved back to CF (like to see Dunn, Burrell, or any other bad LFer do that). Never said he'd be Kenny on defense though. For a LFer, he'll be an above average defender. Better than most teams LFers. If Grady wasn't here though, he'd play CF in Cleveland.

Crowe isn't very good defensively as well. Brantley is actually better suited for CF than Crowe as he can cover more ground. And had 9 outfield assists as well (5 from CF, 4 from LF).....meanwhile Crowe only had 5.....
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby TonyIBI » Fri Jan 16, 2009 7:56 pm

FYI, Brantley is probaly right on par with Crowe as a defensive outfielder.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby indianinkslinger » Fri Jan 16, 2009 9:37 pm

I wonder what all the fuss is about Brantley's shortcomings, both real and imagined. Since I have not seen him play, I am not going to express an opinion on his ability. However, the lad is 21 and may be one of the youngest players starting in AAA. He got there legitimately from all that I can see. He spent a year and a half in AA although he jumped A+. I do find it difficult to believe he is a finished product developmentally at 21 but it is possible. I think it is more likely that he shows improvement but it appears shortsighted to be spending so much time on these perceived shortcomings when he has plenty of time to improve. Just my thoughts.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Duane Kuiper » Sat Jan 17, 2009 10:38 am

Brantley will not be the sleeper of this trade. Poor defensive slap hitters never become more than average MLers.

Juan Pierre is a good comp. More walks than Ks, but not enough walks. Low SLG. Poor SB%.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby indianinkslinger » Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:59 am

Duane Kuiper wrote:Brantley will not be the sleeper of this trade. Poor defensive slap hitters never become more than average MLers.

Juan Pierre is a good comp. More walks than Ks, but not enough walks. Low SLG. Poor SB%.

As I said, I haven't seen him play so I won't express an opinion on your comp. I guess I don't view Pierre's early years as all that bad but beauty is in the eye of the beholder and he seems to be making a decent wage. :s_bye
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Duane Kuiper » Sat Jan 17, 2009 1:21 pm

Pierre's OPS+ was below average. If you take away his caught stealings from his BA and OBP he is a poor player.

He is making a decent wage because of stupid GMs.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby murt » Sat Jan 17, 2009 1:27 pm

Brantley is not going to be Lofton
He will also play FB in 1.5 months
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby indianinkslinger » Sat Jan 17, 2009 6:16 pm

Duane Kuiper wrote:Pierre's OPS+ was below average. If you take away his caught stealings from his BA and OBP he is a poor player.

He is making a decent wage because of stupid GMs.

And yet he will have played 10 years and scored close to 1000 runs after this season. And gets paid $8M a year to play poorly. Many people would look at his career and think it was anything but average. However, I am sure your little statistical handbook can pigeonhole his performance to overlook anything. I am not a big booster of Pierre but ten years is a lot of time to fool all these baseball people. I also noticed differences in his early performance to his over 30 performance but I am sure the little book of stats can reconcile that. Is it possible that these baseball people see something when they watch him play that you miss in your little book of made up numbers? The alternative is that you are much smarter than all these baseball people or just a guy who quotes numbers. :ugeek:
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby TonyIBI » Sun Jan 18, 2009 1:00 am

Play nice guys.

Gotta say, I find it amazing how people are already pigeon-holing Brantley. A guy none of us have seen mind you, and doing that based on some stats. Crazy. Nevermind that he has grown and added 25 pounds in the last 1+ years and grown a an inch+. Nevermind the guy is going to be 21 and in Triple-A, almost 3-4 years behind league average and still in his power developing years.

The guy will never hit 20 home runs. But, he has whether people want to believe it or not, his power IS developing. It sort of started last year before the ankle injury hindered him the second half of last season. He is a 40-50 XBH guy in the majors, +.300 hitter, and very high OBP guy in the making. Prototype leadoff guy who will be a 30-bag a year stolen base threat. Average at worst defensively and still improving there as well. These are not my words since I have yet to see him play, and I can't wait to see him for my own eyes. But the comments are in unison not just from the Indians but from people in every other org I have talked to and that he is going to be a star. Like I said before, we'll see. But, in the meantime color me very intrigued.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby jhonny » Sun Jan 18, 2009 2:59 am

Juan Pierre at an insane price or given 700 PAs in the leadoff role is a bad player. But at the minimum in a decent role like Brantley, he seems like he'd be a lot more worthwhile, both as a trading chip and as a role player. That's more than I can say for Green.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Duane Kuiper » Sun Jan 18, 2009 4:36 pm

Consigliere wrote:He is a 40-50 XBH guy in the majors, +.300 hitter, and very high OBP guy in the making.


His XBH totals
2005-6
2006-12
2007-25
2008-23

AA-165 Games 30 XBH.

Pierre had .18 XBH per game in AA. Brantley had .18 XBH per game in AA. Brantley was one year younger.

Based on this there is little chance of Brantley hitting 40-50 XBH in the ML.

Pierre has been over 40 only once in his career and that took 162 games played and 750 PA.

Nevermind the guy is going to be 21 and in Triple-A
He'll be 22 not 21 for the 09 season.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby martyinnewyork » Sun Jan 18, 2009 5:09 pm

People won't think much of Brantley until we trade him... then he'll be a Hall of Famer...
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby indianinkslinger » Mon Jan 19, 2009 12:59 am

Consigliere wrote:Play nice guys.

Gotta say, I find it amazing how people are already pigeon-holing Brantley. A guy none of us have seen mind you, and doing that based on some stats. Crazy. Nevermind that he has grown and added 25 pounds in the last 1+ years and grown a an inch+. Nevermind the guy is going to be 21 and in Triple-A, almost 3-4 years behind league average and still in his power developing years.

The guy will never hit 20 home runs. But, he has whether people want to believe it or not, his power IS developing. It sort of started last year before the ankle injury hindered him the second half of last season. He is a 40-50 XBH guy in the majors, +.300 hitter, and very high OBP guy in the making. Prototype leadoff guy who will be a 30-bag a year stolen base threat. Average at worst defensively and still improving there as well. These are not my words since I have yet to see him play, and I can't wait to see him for my own eyes. But the comments are in unison not just from the Indians but from people in every other org I have talked to and that he is going to be a star. Like I said before, we'll see. But, in the meantime color me very intrigued.

Gee TL, I thought I was playing nice! So much for your effort to play nice! You cannot even get an acknowledgment of his age. The birth records at MiLB agree with you but I am sure there is some long winded, anal-retentive explanation why that should not count. Oops, is that what you mean by not being nice? Sorry about that! As you know, I am not a fan of pigeonholing players' upside exclusively on numbers but if you have not seen them play that is all you have. Think I will reserve my opinion until I see him in March. BTW, did you notice the big difference in his numbers between the first half when he was healthy and the second half when he was injured? That is probably easier to overlook than the age thing! I'll wait until I see him but if the worst case scenario is Pierre, I can live with that. :s_drinks
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby dnosco » Mon Jan 19, 2009 9:26 am

A couple of thoughts here:

"And yet he will have played 10 years and scored close to 1000 runs after this season. And gets paid $8M a year to play poorly. Many people would look at his career and think it was anything but average. However, I am sure your little statistical handbook can pigeonhole his performance to overlook anything. I am not a big booster of Pierre but ten years is a lot of time to fool all these baseball people."

It is hysterical to me how people have said that, as the same type of player, Willy Taveras is a toad. This, of course, to justify us giving him away for nothing when we had Houston over the barrel. Now the argument is being used in reverse to justify how Juan Pierre is a good player. Just saying.

As far as Brantley, well, Tony, statistics be damned. I showed by his hitting numbers, at least for the first month or so, BEFORE his foot injury, that he was a slap hitter (lots of hits on ground balls and on line drives the other way). Duane Kiper also showed this with his stats. Also, I am pretty convinced that a good amount of this "power is the last tool to develop" stuff went out the window with steroid testing. If anything, I would say that all the statistical evidence shows how projections by scouts are really "Well, if everything possible falls together and we project based on the most favorable examples available....". They are not projecting to the mean they are projecting to a top 10% of all possible scenarios. You rely heavily on what the scouts say and totally ignore the statistical data. As a scientist I use gut instinct sometimes but, almost invariably, it has been shown to my satisfaction that data outweighs gut instinct. Brantley is a slap hitter until proven otherwise.

BTW, looking at the stats, he appears to be improving as an outfielder with 9 assists to 1 error. So, he may have improved his throwing arm and he may actually be getting better on defense so I am cautiously optimistic that he could turn into an above average outfielder with a serviceable arm.

Regarding Brantley's age, while he will start the year at 21 and probably at AAA (not guaranteed knowing the Indians, BTW) I think it is a little disingenuous to say that a guy who has a May 15th birthday is going to be 21 this year while playing at AAA. Maybe 21 for less than 1/3 of the season but not for the year. Now, if you want to say "But, I didn't say the WHOLE year" well, that's where the disingenuous part comes in, if you get my drift.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Jan 19, 2009 9:44 am

dnosco wrote:Regarding Brantley's age, while he will start the year at 21 and probably at AAA (not guaranteed knowing the Indians, BTW) I think it is a little disingenuous to say that a guy who has a May 15th birthday is going to be 21 this year while playing at AAA. Maybe 21 for less than 1/3 of the season but not for the year. Now, if you want to say "But, I didn't say the WHOLE year" well, that's where the disingenuous part comes in, if you get my drift.


Never know, could get called up by May 15th, thus making his a 21 year old AAA OF ;)



Not sure how you can say that Brantley's power will never develop without steroids, but say that Crowe's will. Crowe did show power this past year....but was also 24. He'll be 25 on opening day starting in the same OF as Brantley. So who cares if he's 21 or 22, he still has time to get his power going (up to at least 10-15 HR range) and increase his double totals.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby jellis » Mon Jan 19, 2009 2:37 pm

I still think brantly might be a brian roberts type of hitter
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby petes999 » Mon Jan 19, 2009 3:29 pm

It's hard to say where Brantley will end up. As he matures, he should be developing a bit more pop. He won't be a corner outfielder with power but maybe 10-15 HRs. Yet, even if he gets 10 HRs, if he can keep a BA above 300, that is going to set up nicely as our #2 hitter.

He maybe a Pierre yet he can also be a Ichiro type player. Look at the two

BA .311 vs .331
OBP .399 vs. .377
SLG .372 vs .403 (biggest difference)

Now no one will complain about having Ichiro as our LF/RF. Brantley has a long way to go and his #s are in the minors (yet he was pushed so the numbers are a bit deflated reflecting his age).

Brantley has been increasing his SB until last year as well. I would have expected last year to be higher yet due to his injury he was slowed in the 2nd half. His slugging has also been slowly increasing going to .400 last year.

Thus, if he can keep last year's #s BA - .319, OBP - .395, SLG - .398 would we complain if he has 40 SBs? (note he had 25 SB in his first 76 games - so its not a strech)
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby dnosco » Mon Jan 19, 2009 5:39 pm

Hermie,

I was commenting in general about power developing and how the old axiom is probably not relevant in most cases.

Regarding Crowe vs Brantley, you are probably correct. Totally conjecture on my part because I have seen Crowe play. He might never develop any power without steroids and there is no reason to think that he has any more than a marginal power advantage over Brantley. My bad.

So, if Brantley does develop into a 10-15 HR guy and improves his walk rate and keeps his BA and becomes a good LF/backup CF option with an average arm and continues to steal bases he could become a Coco Crisp type player. But that is a lot of ifs.

Let's wait and see. I promise to stop pointing out his shortcomings if people stop projecting things that are far, far from reality, let alone certainty.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby indianinkslinger » Mon Jan 19, 2009 7:01 pm

dnosco wrote:A couple of thoughts here:

"And yet he will have played 10 years and scored close to 1000 runs after this season. And gets paid $8M a year to play poorly. Many people would look at his career and think it was anything but average. However, I am sure your little statistical handbook can pigeonhole his performance to overlook anything. I am not a big booster of Pierre but ten years is a lot of time to fool all these baseball people."

It is hysterical to me how people have said that, as the same type of player, Willy Taveras is a toad. This, of course, to justify us giving him away for nothing when we had Houston over the barrel. Now the argument is being used in reverse to justify how Juan Pierre is a good player. Just saying.

As far as Brantley, well, Tony, statistics be damned. I showed by his hitting numbers, at least for the first month or so, BEFORE his foot injury, that he was a slap hitter (lots of hits on ground balls and on line drives the other way). Duane Kiper also showed this with his stats. Also, I am pretty convinced that a good amount of this "power is the last tool to develop" stuff went out the window with steroid testing. If anything, I would say that all the statistical evidence shows how projections by scouts are really "Well, if everything possible falls together and we project based on the most favorable examples available....". They are not projecting to the mean they are projecting to a top 10% of all possible scenarios. You rely heavily on what the scouts say and totally ignore the statistical data. As a scientist I use gut instinct sometimes but, almost invariably, it has been shown to my satisfaction that data outweighs gut instinct. Brantley is a slap hitter until proven otherwise.

BTW, looking at the stats, he appears to be improving as an outfielder with 9 assists to 1 error. So, he may have improved his throwing arm and he may actually be getting better on defense so I am cautiously optimistic that he could turn into an above average outfielder with a serviceable arm.

Regarding Brantley's age, while he will start the year at 21 and probably at AAA (not guaranteed knowing the Indians, BTW) I think it is a little disingenuous to say that a guy who has a May 15th birthday is going to be 21 this year while playing at AAA. Maybe 21 for less than 1/3 of the season but not for the year. Now, if you want to say "But, I didn't say the WHOLE year" well, that's where the disingenuous part comes in, if you get my drift.

No offense Dennis but you don't know jack about scouting!
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby stoike » Mon Jan 19, 2009 11:02 pm

indianinkslinger wrote:
dnosco wrote:A couple of thoughts here:

"And yet he will have played 10 years and scored close to 1000 runs after this season. And gets paid $8M a year to play poorly. Many people would look at his career and think it was anything but average. However, I am sure your little statistical handbook can pigeonhole his performance to overlook anything. I am not a big booster of Pierre but ten years is a lot of time to fool all these baseball people."

It is hysterical to me how people have said that, as the same type of player, Willy Taveras is a toad. This, of course, to justify us giving him away for nothing when we had Houston over the barrel. Now the argument is being used in reverse to justify how Juan Pierre is a good player. Just saying.

As far as Brantley, well, Tony, statistics be damned. I showed by his hitting numbers, at least for the first month or so, BEFORE his foot injury, that he was a slap hitter (lots of hits on ground balls and on line drives the other way). Duane Kiper also showed this with his stats. Also, I am pretty convinced that a good amount of this "power is the last tool to develop" stuff went out the window with steroid testing. If anything, I would say that all the statistical evidence shows how projections by scouts are really "Well, if everything possible falls together and we project based on the most favorable examples available....". They are not projecting to the mean they are projecting to a top 10% of all possible scenarios. You rely heavily on what the scouts say and totally ignore the statistical data. As a scientist I use gut instinct sometimes but, almost invariably, it has been shown to my satisfaction that data outweighs gut instinct. Brantley is a slap hitter until proven otherwise.

BTW, looking at the stats, he appears to be improving as an outfielder with 9 assists to 1 error. So, he may have improved his throwing arm and he may actually be getting better on defense so I am cautiously optimistic that he could turn into an above average outfielder with a serviceable arm.

Regarding Brantley's age, while he will start the year at 21 and probably at AAA (not guaranteed knowing the Indians, BTW) I think it is a little disingenuous to say that a guy who has a May 15th birthday is going to be 21 this year while playing at AAA. Maybe 21 for less than 1/3 of the season but not for the year. Now, if you want to say "But, I didn't say the WHOLE year" well, that's where the disingenuous part comes in, if you get my drift.

No offense Dennis but you don't know jack about scouting!


AMEN!! The scary thing is, I think DN actually believes that he knows more than the actual experts. If we could contain his hot air, we could probably end this artic cold spell here in Ohio....
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 20, 2009 10:14 am

dnosco wrote:Hermie,

I was commenting in general about power developing and how the old axiom is probably not relevant in most cases.

Regarding Crowe vs Brantley, you are probably correct. Totally conjecture on my part because I have seen Crowe play. He might never develop any power without steroids and there is no reason to think that he has any more than a marginal power advantage over Brantley. My bad.

So, if Brantley does develop into a 10-15 HR guy and improves his walk rate and keeps his BA and becomes a good LF/backup CF option with an average arm and continues to steal bases he could become a Coco Crisp type player. But that is a lot of ifs.

Let's wait and see. I promise to stop pointing out his shortcomings if people stop projecting things that are far, far from reality, let alone certainty.


Fair enough on the power thing.

Brantley's walk totals are fine though. Leadoff guys don't usually walk 100 times a season. Over the past 3 seasons Brantley's walk totals have been 61, 60, and 50. It dropped in 2008 but also skipped a level (lil bit at AA last year) and spent some time on the DL. In his career, Kenny only had more than 70 walks in a season 4 times (and he over 450 at-bats in each of those seasons). Give Brantley 450-500 at-bats and he'll get you 70 walks based on his performances thus far. That's good enough for a leadoff guy with his speed. give him 600 at-bats and he could easily have 80-90 walks. We obviously need to see how he does at AAA first....but those numbers are far from unrealistic given what he's shown in the minors.

Henderson was a leadoff guy that walked over 100 times some years.....but no one is saying Brantley will be the greatest leadoff hitter ever, or hit 25+ HRs like Henderson did some years. Raines never walked 100 times and had 90 or more only 3 times in his career.


You compared Brantley's walks to Weglarz's, which isn't right. Weglarz is a middle of the order hitter with power. He SHOULD walk more. Teams don't pitch around leadoff hitters. A good middle of the order hitter should put some fear into pitchers/teams and get more walks out of it. Not saying anything bad here about Weglarz, but Brantley and he are two totally different types of hitters and their plate discipline shouldn't be compared.....
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby dnosco » Tue Jan 20, 2009 10:43 am

I'll wait and see who is right on Brantley, Santana, LaPorta, et al. Never said I know more than the experts and never said in my post that I knew anything about scouting but, as usual, you make ridiculous statements because you can't win a real argument.

As far as Pierre, just a hilarious conversation from people who said Taveras sucked despite having now an extended career as a regular. Just hysterical.

Regarding thinking I know more than the expert, stoike, let's talk the next time you get on Wedge for making a decision you don't like because, of course you have to be wrong because the expert, Wedge, can't be. Ridiculous statement in your post.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 20, 2009 11:01 am

dnosco wrote:As far as Pierre, just a hilarious conversation from people who said Taveras sucked despite having now an extended career as a regular. Just hysterical.


I know I wasn't one that said Taveras sucked......but I don't think I'd say he now has an extended career as a regular. Was just non-tendered after an OBP of .308. He'll be starting in Cincy....at least to begin the year. Dickerson will push him for the leadoff spot....and possibly CF if the Reds add another OFer, which they have said they still want to do. Taveras thus far has had a Pierre-light career.....which isn't saying a whole lot.....


Having said that, I'd take him on this team in a heartbeat (though not sure for 2yr/$6+M like he got from the Reds). Would be a great 4th OFer and would probably rather have him in LF than Francisco.....
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby indianinkslinger » Tue Jan 20, 2009 11:09 am

dnosco wrote:I'll wait and see who is right on Brantley, Santana, LaPorta, et al. Never said I know more than the experts and never said in my post that I knew anything about scouting but, as usual, you make ridiculous statements because you can't win a real argument.

As far as Pierre, just a hilarious conversation from people who said Taveras sucked despite having now an extended career as a regular. Just hysterical.

Regarding thinking I know more than the expert, stoike, let's talk the next time you get on Wedge for making a decision you don't like because, of course you have to be wrong because the expert, Wedge, can't be. Ridiculous statement in your post.

Dennis, you sure did opine on scouting!

"If anything, I would say that all the statistical evidence shows how projections by scouts are really "Well, if everything possible falls together and we project based on the most favorable examples available....". They are not projecting to the mean they are projecting to a top 10% of all possible scenarios. You rely heavily on what the scouts say and totally ignore the statistical data. As a scientist I use gut instinct sometimes but, almost invariably, it has been shown to my satisfaction that data outweighs gut instinct. Brantley is a slap hitter until proven otherwise
."

What you call disingenuous, I call a long-winded anal-retentive explanation. Still trying to figure out what Taveras has to do with the price of eggs? Dennis, I am not trying to win any arguments! That is for you and hermie. My interest is if statements stand up to examination and, quite candidly, you fail frequently in this regard. Your explanations consist largely of recycled material, mostly from BA when it suits your needs, that is generally used by you in a biased way to support narrow or incorrect conclusions which you have reached. I see no reason to argue with you. Any time I ask for justification, you hide in hyperbole or avoid responding. You are entitled to an opinion, Dennis. The problem is they just aren't very good often enough for me to take you seriously.
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Re: How the Indians farm system ranks according to BA

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 20, 2009 11:22 am

indianinkslinger wrote:Dennis, you sure did opine on scouting!


Expressing an opinion on scouting and saying you know a lot about scouting are two different things. Dennis never said he didn't have an opinion on scouting.....so not sure what the point of your statement was......
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