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Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

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Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby indianinkslinger » Wed Dec 31, 2008 7:56 pm

Time has passed since November 17 and an update to your assessment appears timely considering the organizational changes.

In Columbus, Jeff Stevens has been traded and Tomo Ohko signed. They may take each others place on the roster but not in function. Ohka will probably take a starter's spot. It looks likely that it would be Dixon who could be moved to relief. We have also picked up Valbuena and a couple MI fill ins to account for. Valbuena is targeted for 2B so JBarf seems redundant and I can't even hazard a guess who will be SS and backups, mostly because I don't care.

Akron does not appear to be effected to any great extent.

There are changes to consider at Kinston. The organization has lost both Archer and Gaub. Archer's replacement in the starting rotation should come from Putnam or Stowell. While I happen to think both will be there, I really cannot dispute Tony's logic. It seems clear to me that CC Lee will take Gaub's place in the Kinston relief corps.

We also have to consider the placement of the walking wounded, Sipp and Bryson. I am not sure that even Tony can project a return for either with any degree of accuracy. Fortunately, the organization appears deep enough in relief pitching to absorb the uncertainty.

There may be more changes to come because I still think Shapiro is not finished. There are still good trade chips among the Catchers, OFs, 1B and LH starters that can be utilized. He is doing OK in my book this far but I think there is more to come.
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby TonyIBI » Thu Jan 01, 2009 2:33 am

Yep, one of the things I will be working on as soon as I finish the scouting reports for the prospect book.
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby dnosco » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:54 pm

indianinkslinger wrote:Time has passed since November 17 and an update to your assessment appears timely considering the organizational changes.

In Columbus, Jeff Stevens has been traded and Tomo Ohko signed. They may take each others place on the roster but not in function. Ohka will probably take a starter's spot. It looks likely that it would be Dixon who could be moved to relief. We have also picked up Valbuena and a couple MI fill ins to account for. Valbuena is targeted for 2B so JBarf seems redundant and I can't even hazard a guess who will be SS and backups, mostly because I don't care.

Akron does not appear to be effected to any great extent.

There are changes to consider at Kinston. The organization has lost both Archer and Gaub. Archer's replacement in the starting rotation should come from Putnam or Stowell. While I happen to think both will be there, I really cannot dispute Tony's logic. It seems clear to me that CC Lee will take Gaub's place in the Kinston relief corps.

We also have to consider the placement of the walking wounded, Sipp and Bryson. I am not sure that even Tony can project a return for either with any degree of accuracy. Fortunately, the organization appears deep enough in relief pitching to absorb the uncertainty.

There may be more changes to come because I still think Shapiro is not finished. There are still good trade chips among the Catchers, OFs, 1B and LH starters that can be utilized. He is doing OK in my book this far but I think there is more to come.


I am thinking, in this organization, Archer would have been repeating low A. He didn't show enough to move up. Gaub would have been at Kinston but his spot will easily be taken by a guy who would have been in extended spring training, I think. I think JBarf and Valbuena share DH and 2B and Valbuena plays some third and maybe a little SS. It is a distinct possibility that we trade JBarf and Marte for peanuts at the end of ST if we find out they are redundant.

Again, in this organization I could easily see Putnam and Stowell starting at Lake County unless there are younger guys who are ready for full-season ball (Mahalic, Salazar, etc.)

The guy I am most intrigued about is Tseng. Where does he start and in what role? He is, to me, one of the most intriguing stories of all the 2009 guys. He could end up going anywhere from being released to being in the majors as a reliever by the end of the year.
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby TonyIBI » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:04 pm

I'm going to mention this in my weekend writeup, but Gaub and Archer became expendable when the Indians signed those late picks before the deadline. With Putnam and maybe even Stowell heading to Kinston to start the season, as well as Berger, it meant was a crowded pitching situation in Kinston.
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby MadThinker88 » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:13 pm

I am surprised by the idea of them being expendable. I thought Gaub was primed for a fast rise through the system if he remained healthy this year (start season in Kinston, gets to Akron middle of the year).

After Gaub's previous injury issues, his 08 performance was great to see. If he regained even more velocity, he would be a power lefty arm for the bullpen and possibly a very good chip come the trade deadline or for next season.
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby artgold » Thu Jan 01, 2009 8:28 pm

MadThinker88 wrote:I am surprised by the idea of them being expendable. I thought Gaub was primed for a fast rise through the system if he remained healthy this year (start season in Kinston, gets to Akron middle of the year).

After Gaub's previous injury issues, his 08 performance was great to see. If he regained even more velocity, he would be a power lefty arm for the bullpen and possibly a very good chip come the trade deadline or for next season.



Not to turn this into a Gaub thread, but you may be right. With his arm slot changing and his slight loss in velocity the statistical performance seems to indicate he may have gotten more movement on his pitches. The risk is his age and the level he performed, a lot of pitchers put up great low A numbers and fall apart when they advance. However the arm slot change with his IP/K ratio certainly makes him interesting, apparently to the Cubs too.
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby JP_Frost » Thu Jan 01, 2009 10:40 pm

Keeping Gaub, who is still quite a few levels away from the minors, could also mean he'd get injured again and losing all of his value at once. Stevens "hurts" us the most now, but I think Archer could become the best player of the 3.
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby TonyIBI » Fri Jan 02, 2009 2:09 am

I did not phrase that correctly....did not mean they were expendable, just that after landing guys like Putnam and Stowell late in the signing period, they would be taking a job from someone at High-A in 2009. Gaub/Archer and others from Lake County in 2008 immediately became trade bait or were set to lose a job.....and the Indians needed to do something with the excess of players...
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby indianinkslinger » Fri Jan 02, 2009 4:18 am

Consigliere wrote:I did not phrase that correctly....did not mean they were expendable, just that after landing guys like Putnam and Stowell late in the signing period, they would be taking a job from someone at High-A in 2009. Gaub/Archer and others from Lake County in 2008 immediately became trade bait or were set to lose a job.....and the Indians needed to do something with the excess of players...


Tony, I think it is safe to say that Stowell, Putnam and Berger became an immediate threat to Archer's progression. Long term, I believe Haley, House and Moncrief have arms that are the equal of Archer, who does have a big upside. Gaub might be the most difficult one to replace since he is a LH reliever with excellent potential even though he is old for his progress. All three players have ML potential, IMO, but the tribe has options that look to be better than the departed.
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby jellis » Fri Jan 02, 2009 12:38 pm

at the end of the day this system is as deep as I can remember in a very long time, every guy we traded has the ability to make the majors, but I think it can be argued that in A ball we had to make spots for some of our draft picks, some one like berger sticks out as a player who proved he should be in A
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby dnosco » Sun Jan 04, 2009 12:59 am

Tony,

Having seen this organization as long as you have to you really believe that a guy (Archer) who walks almost a guy an inning at low A would have even had a job at high A this year? My experience with these guys is that they promote too slowly, not too fast.

Also, I don't know where you are coming from with Gaub. The guys you named from the late signing period don't match up at all with Gaub (a reliever) or Archer (a guy not ready for high A), I think.

Maybe, in terms of depth in the farm system you are correct but I really don't believe that Gaub or Archer would have competed for spots in Kinston with the guys you mentioned. Lake County, maybe, given that the Indians don't always start their college guys at high A in their first full season.

So, if you think Gaub, as a left handed reliever, would have taken a job from a real prospect at high A next year then that is a head scratcher to me...unless you are thinking Gaub would have been a starting pitcher next year. Is that it?
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby TonyIBI » Mon Jan 05, 2009 12:24 am

Archer was slated to go to Kinston. He made some significant progress in the second half of last season with the walks. With Perez, Salazar, Jones, and McFarland as well as one of Stowell/Putnam pegged for the LC rotation, Archer was ready to be pushed up. Some conversations with some people in the org shortly after the season ended backs this up.

With De La Cruz, Mahalic, Berger, one of Putnam/Stowell, and one of Morris/Miller pegged for the Kinston rotation, it means that not only was it going to be hard to get Archer in there.....but also it means one of Miller/Morris may be going to the pen.

Not saying Gaub or Archer were expendable....but that with the influx of some good pitching talent from the 2008 Draft it greatly changed the makeup of the starting rotations in 2009 in Kinston/LC and was going to make it really hard to get all their talent on the field.
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby dnosco » Mon Jan 05, 2009 11:19 am

With Perez, Salazar, Jones, and McFarland as well as one of Stowell/Putnam pegged for the LC rotation,


I am thinking that not all of those guys go to LC, at least not as starters. Projecting McFarland's numbers based on his GCL numbers this year tells me he will get killed at LC next year. Jones has a chance, as does Perez, but I don't see those chances being great.

Salazar has the best chance for LC success as he is pretty polished.

I could see both Miller and Morris repeating low A, at least at the beginning of the season.

As you have written about it and talked to players and agents about it, the Indians tend to not advance people as fast as other organizations. This organization has shown no inclination to advance guys as fast as we would like them to. While Archer's walks/9 were atrocious early in the season they were still not good (4 per 9) over the last two months. Not saying you are not right but, a priori, I would have never expected this organization to promote a guy like Archer after his body of work this year and the way they guard against promoting guys too soon. It will be interesting to see what the Cubs do with him. I expect to see him start the year in Peoria. We'll see.
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby TonyIBI » Mon Jan 05, 2009 12:37 pm

Perez is a top 25 prospect and is being pushed like De La Cruz. He's the next big prospect you'll start to hear more about this year by national pubs once he starts playing full season ball. Pretty much locked for a LC rotation spot. It is possible one of McFarland/Jones start the year in EST, but not both. Neither will be moved to the bullpen as they still have lots of value as starters and will be pushed there.

Morris has almost a year and a half at LC, has shown good progress and is being moved to Kinston. Miller too as he was almost moved up there at the end of May last year.

While they have a bad rep for moving players up slowly, I think they have sort of started to change that opinion somewhat at least in the lower levels of the system after they pushed De La, Rondon, Gomez, Smith, Mahalic, Archer and others last year. All were significantly young for their leagues last year, and all should move up this year.
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby MadThinker88 » Mon Jan 05, 2009 11:47 pm

Tony,
Thanks for the information in this thread. To echo the question of Dnosco from earlier: Was Gaub slated to head back to the rotation in 2009 or was/is he likely reliever from this point forward?

In terms of left handed relief prospects, who does the Tribe have other than Rundles and Sipp coming through the system??
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby TonyIBI » Tue Jan 06, 2009 2:48 am

MadThinker88 wrote:Tony,
Thanks for the information in this thread. To echo the question of Dnosco from earlier: Was Gaub slated to head back to the rotation in 2009 or was/is he likely reliever from this point forward?

In terms of left handed relief prospects, who does the Tribe have other than Rundles and Sipp coming through the system??


Gaub would have still been in the bully at Kinston in 2009 if he was still with the org. His removal now opens the door for possibly one of Morris/Miller lefties to move to the pen in Kinston this year.

As for other lefty relievers coming up, Matt Meyer is interesting. Heath Taylor is another guy. But, overall the system is really lacking with quality lefty relievers after Sipp, Rundles, and Meyer.
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 06, 2009 9:47 am

Consigliere wrote:As for other lefty relievers coming up, Matt Meyer is interesting. Heath Taylor is another guy. But, overall the system is really lacking with quality lefty relievers after Sipp, Rundles, and Meyer.


Clearly explains why the Tribe has shown interest in Ohman.....
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby MadThinker88 » Tue Jan 06, 2009 10:21 am

Hermie13 wrote:
Consigliere wrote:As for other lefty relievers coming up, Matt Meyer is interesting. Heath Taylor is another guy. But, overall the system is really lacking with quality lefty relievers after Sipp, Rundles, and Meyer.


Clearly explains why the Tribe has shown interest in Ohman.....


I wouldn't jump to that so fast. Rundles and Sipp are already on the 40 man which means they are starting to knock at the big league door to join Raffy Perez in the bullpen.

Additionally, if another lefty was needed in the pen for 2009, there are a number of lefties that will be available as a short-term fix if they are not in the rotation already (Jackson, Sowers, etc).

Meyer was a name I had forgotten about but he was in Kinston in 08. I doubt he would be a guy that could get called upon if a need arose.
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 06, 2009 10:56 am

The Indians lack lefties in the pen....and have shown interst in Ohman......

I'm not jumping to any conclusions really.....it speaks for itself.....
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby MadThinker88 » Tue Jan 06, 2009 11:04 am

Herm,
I think we are disagreeing on semantics. It appears you think interest was shown in Ohman is a reflection on the limited number of lefty relievers coming through the system.

I'm contending that interest shown in Ohman is not due to that issue. It was the general interest shown in most free agents and since the Tribe has not signed him, they are not stuck in a dire position since there are other internal options.
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 06, 2009 12:05 pm

Sipp is hurt...Rundles is becoming a journeyman minor leaguer.....Meyer is a bit away from the MLs.....Jackson has almost no bullpen experience........what internal options do we really have?


I said before the winter started, another lefty in the pen should be our top priority (yes, even over closer). We need to take pressure off Perez and limit overworking him (which Wedge loves to do). Adding Wood and Smith makes it not as necessary (the pen looks so strong now, we can get away with only one lefty I suppose)......but another one would still go a long way.....and Shapiro knows that....
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby jellis » Tue Jan 06, 2009 4:18 pm

adding depth to the pen has taken the pressure off perez, and jackson had been doing BP work before we traded for him from MIL, we are fine when it comes to lefties for now
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 06, 2009 4:42 pm

Jackson had only 3.2 innings of ML relief experience.....and his relief experience in the minors that year was terrible....his ERA in AAA was 7.85 (includes 6 starts and 16 relief appearances, was bad both as a starter and reliever).

Some starters can't be made into bullpen guys....they need more time to warm up......


We are better off with the depth we added....but are far from fine as far as lefties go.....quite the opposite actually.....




Anyone getting a Jason Davis/Fernando Cabrera vibe from Mujica and Jackson other than me?
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby JP_Frost » Tue Jan 06, 2009 5:38 pm

with Pavano signed there's probably no chance we'll sign a lefty reliever unless it's a minor league deal. I wouldn't have minded Dennys Reyes or Brian Shouse, but I'm satisfied if one of Meloan/Jackson/Mujica/Miller fill the last spot in the bullpen.
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby MadThinker88 » Tue Jan 06, 2009 7:13 pm

Hermie13 wrote:Anyone getting a Jason Davis/Fernando Cabrera vibe from Mujica and Jackson other than me?


Mujica gives off that vibe. Not yet from Zach J.
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby jellis » Tue Jan 06, 2009 8:41 pm

sorry thats an insult to davis and Cabrera

Mujica gives off a scott stewart vibe
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 07, 2009 9:52 am

jellis wrote:sorry thats an insult to davis and Cabrera

Mujica gives off a scott stewart vibe


um....care to explain? Mujica was good when he first came (2.95 ERA in 18.1 innings with ZERO walks) up just like Cabrera....then struggled the past 2 (just like Cabrera did).


I'm getting the Davis vibe with jackson as a guy that will just force himself onto the roster as a starter in the pen because he's out of options (just like Davis did)......and like Davis will likely be sent packing eventually.......but we'll see.....maybe he'll suprise and pan out well in the pen.....or pulll a real shocker and somehow win the 5th spot in the rotation....
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby toledobuck » Wed Jan 07, 2009 11:28 am

Mujica is still very young so who knows what will happen with him. To not get outrighted off the 40 he will have to win the last bullpen spot against the likes of Miller, Meloan, etc who all still have options so if Mujica impresses to any degree in the spring he will most likely win a bully spot.
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 07, 2009 11:44 am

Mujica also has to battle Jackson for the last bullpen spot.....who is also out of options......
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby dnosco » Wed Jan 07, 2009 2:20 pm

jellis wrote:sorry thats an insult to davis and Cabrera

Mujica gives off a scott stewart vibe


The problem is, Scott Stewart gave off that vibe to some of us WHEN his trade was announced and those who weren't convinced didn't make it out of spring training without being convinced.
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby jellis » Wed Jan 07, 2009 4:20 pm

mujica has one big year in the minors which was what made he consuidered a spec and since then has shown little or nothing to make me think hes anything but a MR on a bad team
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 07, 2009 4:38 pm

Not true. Mujica had back-to-back very good years in the minors (2005-2006). Was likely rushed too fast to the ML level (can't really blame Cleveland though....not giving up a run at AA or AAA will do that).

Cabrera was an ok starter then moved to the pen....where he did ok for 2 years (just like Mujica has)....and after that was nothing special (and still isn't).....was a shame too. I really liked him and thought he could one day become a great setup man (closed/setup in the WBC in 2006....another reason I'm not a fan of that stupid thing and sending pitchers to it).

It's not a perfect comparison (cabrera and Mujica)....but I'm just saying I'm getting the same vibe. 2 good years followed by 2 bad and now out of options......
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Re: Update to Tony's ML organization forecast

Postby TonyIBI » Thu Jan 08, 2009 1:05 am

I can't wait until Eddie Moo is Eddie Gone.
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