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2014 MLB Draft

Talk shop about the various prospects and teams that make up the Cleveland Indians organization.

Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Mon Mar 31, 2014 1:12 pm

Rocky55 wrote:
OhioBaseball wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:"The guys" talk college baseball. Go to 7:30 to hear the experts take on Jake Stinnett.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBz03s8a78c

So, Tribe's 1st pick?


Thanks for sharing, Rocky. That's good stuff. PG is going to put Baseball America out of business.

So here is my question; two high flying college SP's that I, at best, had only modest knowledge about after last summer, Matt Imhof vs. Jake Stinnett. I see both of these guys in the 20th to 40th overall range (probably closer to 20 than 40).

Hypothetically, let's say we're at 31st overall in the draft and luckily (I don't think they both will be available come June), Jake Stinnett and Matt Imhof are on the board and Chris Antonetti ties your hands and says, "We're only going to take a college SP here and I only want Stinnett or Imhof. I like both both and I'll leave the decision to you...don't blow this like Grant would..."

I actually see Stinnett (the college senior, mind you) as the higher upside arm but I really like Imhof's ability to work vertically, and he's already showing advanced breaking stuff that I don't think Stinnett quite has yet. I'd take Imhof right now, but I can understand Stinnett -- I'm guessing Rocky you'd take Stinnett??

No chance the other would be there at 38, right? Have to get Papi then. So, who'd we get at 21? Zimmer or Lemond? This is fun.
Part of the PG article on Stinnett that I didn't quote: "Had he been facing wooden bats, there would have been shards of wood all over the field throughout this game." I love that stuff. Everything he throws moves, & he can paint it. Yeah, I'd take Stinnett, especially at 31. I'm not even sure that Imhof won't be the better (safer) bet. His delivery is less complicated & smoother, plus he can really spin it. I think that Stinnett may have the better FB command. So, best case scenario, we end up with both, plus Zimmer & Papi.

You know what's interesting, at least to me, is that of those 4 (or 5 if you include Lemond) only Zimmer was considered a 1st rounder 6 months ago. Plus, the fact that I like all college guys this year is making me question my identity. Even my wife is looking like she's suspicious.


Yeah, I can see Stinnett breaking bats and keeping Louisville Slugger in business. His fastball is a legit pitch with the arm side run and velo, but I prefer the guys that miss the bats altogether! No broken bats needed when you're racking up K's like Imhof! :)

Rocky, college baseball is different than it was a couple of years ago so I wouldn't say its entirely on you for changing. The change in the draft rules (big signing bonuses for HS guys that fell in the draft) has clearly improved the depth of talent in college baseball. I think that's a good thing. Let the college coaches take the risk of developing the teenage talent.

Ugh, have you seen Skye Bolt's #'s? What the hell happened? He slumped after coming back from injury last year and to start this year it's been rough for him. That whole UNC team isn't hitting.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Tondo » Tue Apr 01, 2014 11:27 am

Rocky55 wrote:I think that this is an unusual draft year or I've had a come to Jesus experience. Look at all of the desirable college SP's. Look at Zimmer & Papi. I like JD Davis too. I normally like the HS kids but as you've pointed out so many times that we don't seem to have a useful developmental program. The college guys are so good and polished that I wouldn't squawk if we went all college, if we got the right ones :wink .


Welcome to the club :wink

Big proponent of going with proven, performing College guys over HS kids considering the Tribe budget restraints and need of cheap depth. The myth of HS arms having more elite upside is just that, a myth. The hitting % on those come with a much higher K rate and that's something small market clubs have to minimize. It's not just the Tribe wasting early picks on HS busts. Consistent College performers tend to pan out AND also have the high upisde. Look at the 2012 draft. Tribe could/should have landed Wacha, Alex Wood and Tim Cooney for the same money they got Naquin, Mitch Brown and Lovegrove for. Those 3 arms were right there in front of them and they dominated College. At least Naquin was a performer and there's still some hope left with him, but it's like those are too obvious picks to make for some, so they start daydreaming of what that HS arm "might" become. In most cases, I'd say 80% of them, would not have come close to those numbers if they went to College. Just take the College spec and mix in a HS here and there, especially with the new draft budget system in place.

That said, guys you mentioned like Morales, Gardner, Papi, Imhof etc are very good bets to make it to the Bigs and move quickly. At worst they become valuable trading chips along the way. What's M.Brown's, Lovegrove's, McClure's, R.Aviles', Lavisky's, Levon's trade value these days? It's shot.

Give me a handful of Weaver, Lemond, Imhof, Stinnett, Papi, Morales, Gardner, Sparks, Conforto, Zimmer etc in the top 10 rounds and you'll have enough budget left to roll the dice on some high uspide HS arm falling (think Brady) or some CC spec after round 10 (think Anderson). It's the way to work this system and get the best overall group of talent out of it.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Tue Apr 01, 2014 4:38 pm

Tondo wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:I think that this is an unusual draft year or I've had a come to Jesus experience. Look at all of the desirable college SP's. Look at Zimmer & Papi. I like JD Davis too. I normally like the HS kids but as you've pointed out so many times that we don't seem to have a useful developmental program. The college guys are so good and polished that I wouldn't squawk if we went all college, if we got the right ones :wink .


Welcome to the club :wink

Big proponent of going with proven, performing College guys over HS kids considering the Tribe budget restraints and need of cheap depth. The myth of HS arms having more elite upside is just that, a myth. The hitting % on those come with a much higher K rate and that's something small market clubs have to minimize. It's not just the Tribe wasting early picks on HS busts. Consistent College performers tend to pan out AND also have the high upisde. Look at the 2012 draft. Tribe could/should have landed Wacha, Alex Wood and Tim Cooney for the same money they got Naquin, Mitch Brown and Lovegrove for. Those 3 arms were right there in front of them and they dominated College. At least Naquin was a performer and there's still some hope left with him, but it's like those are too obvious picks to make for some, so they start daydreaming of what that HS arm "might" become. In most cases, I'd say 80% of them, would not have come close to those numbers if they went to College. Just take the College spec and mix in a HS here and there, especially with the new draft budget system in place.

That said, guys you mentioned like Morales, Gardner, Papi, Imhof etc are very good bets to make it to the Bigs and move quickly. At worst they become valuable trading chips along the way. What's M.Brown's, Lovegrove's, McClure's, R.Aviles', Lavisky's, Levon's trade value these days? It's shot.

Give me a handful of Weaver, Lemond, Imhof, Stinnett, Papi, Morales, Gardner, Sparks, Conforto, Zimmer etc in the top 10 rounds and you'll have enough budget left to roll the dice on some high uspide HS arm falling (think Brady) or some CC spec after round 10 (think Anderson). It's the way to work this system and get the best overall group of talent out of it.

I've liked college guys in the past but most don't turn out that good. They should pay me not to like them. That said, here's a guy that Klima likes & that OB will probably hate:

http://www.bbprospectreport.com/2014/03 ... more-17845

Klima's got different takes on most specs but knows how to look & what to look for & explains it pretty well.
Last edited by Rocky55 on Tue Apr 01, 2014 10:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Apr 01, 2014 6:27 pm

Tondo.. generally.. the problem with college guys, aside from unlearning bad habits.. is the number of the elite.. or the very best.. the top end guys that can impact a franchise.. are too few. By the time they're 21 or 23, their upside is limited. They are closer to being what they're gonna be. As High School guys.. they have both physical maturity and mental maturity to grow into. Given a HS Arm/prospect that is equal to a College Arm/prospect.. take the HS kid. He's has more upside, in general. He's also more likely to be Dillon Howard..

This year's draft has about as many polished w/ upside college arms and a few incredible high school arms as I've seen in quite a while. (Over a year ago.. Tyler Kolek caught my eye.. and he's been nothing short of everything I thought he could be).. There is NO Stephen Strasberg in this draft (Kolek is close).. but there are several potential Justin Verlanders. The Indians CANNOT settle for a safe arm due to being a perceived or real easy to sign type guy. A guy who has one plus pitch and who barely heats it up into the 90's but is signable.. aint gonna be good enough in 3 or 4 years.. pass..

If the next "Lucas Giolito" is here for the picking in early June.. the next "Tyler Naquin" should never ever be taken instead. I'd dearly love to see the Indians acquire several Elvis Araujo type guys.. If Tito can stick around for four or five years.. this could become a model franchise for results and depth of the farm system......
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Tondo » Wed Apr 02, 2014 10:15 am

GeronimoSon wrote:Tondo.. generally.. the problem with college guys, aside from unlearning bad habits.. is the number of the elite.. or the very best.. the top end guys that can impact a franchise.


I've looked at the 2009 to 2011 drafts with a (subjective) top 5 for each College and HS:

2009: Strasburg, Kipnis, Goldschmidt, M.Carpenter, M.Minor (with Leake, Corbin, Joe Kelly, Seager, Khris Davis, Ackley, Yan Gomes, Storen, Brothers, L.Coleman, Boxberger, D.Hale) vs. Trout, S.Miller, Will Myers, C.Owings, Z.Wheeler (with Arenado, A.Crow, J.Turner, Skaggs, M.Davidson)

Good talent on both sides. Elite goes to HS, although the top 3 on both sides are simply young stars already. Depth goes to College easily.

2010: M.Harvey, Sale, Gyorko, Smyly, Calhoun (with Ranaudo, AJ Griffin, Addison Reed, K.Chapman and many other big leaguers) vs. (Taillon), Machado, Yelich, T.Walker, Castellanos (no other HS made it to the bigs, only those last 4)

College not only clearly wins the depth and % battle, but also the elite one for me.

2011: G.Cole, Sonny Gray, Cingrani, B.Miller, Erik Johnson (with Bauer, K.Wong, Rendon, Asche, Maronde, G.Springer, Hultzen, Alex Mayer etc) vs. J.Fernandez, A.Bradley, Lindor, Baez, Owens, (with Guerrieri, Bundy, Wisler, Crick, Vogelbach, Mookie Betts)

Lots of good talent on both sides. Depth goes to College again. Elite is a toss up although I'm sure many will disagree. The HS guys only have one proven guy, the rest can still bust hard. College has 3 legit FOR, who are already delivering in the bigs.

GeronimoSon wrote:Given a HS Arm/prospect that is equal to a College Arm/prospect.. take the HS kid. He's has more upside, in general. He's also more likely to be Dillon Howard..


That's actually my point: the HS spec in most cases can't be compared to a College spec. Lots of projection going on to level the comparison that gets ommitted. The HS arm is never really "equal". If they were, of course take the younger one. That's why more HS specs bust hard, the projection and comparisons were wrong. It's already tough enough to project College guys to higher Minors and then MLB, but from HS to MLB? It's like playing the lottery. Ask the Blue Jays, they've taken almost 40 HS specs in the top 10 rounds since 2009 and have nothing to show for on their team that matters (and that draft approach is starting to hurt in their lack of depth). The irony here is that their best HS pick was probably 15th rounder Hutchinson who made his debut yesterday.

My conclusion: take mostly College guys, mix in a HS spec and gamble on some HS/JC after round 10. That's the way to go, especially as a small market team.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed Apr 02, 2014 7:08 pm

Thanks for the response.. College guys. as you've illustrated with your examples can be the answer and can be on the expedited path to the ML's and the corner of Ontario and Carnegie.. where they can wear Chief Wahoo on their sleeve!!
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Thu Apr 03, 2014 7:56 pm

Tondo wrote:
GeronimoSon wrote:Tondo.. generally.. the problem with college guys, aside from unlearning bad habits.. is the number of the elite.. or the very best.. the top end guys that can impact a franchise.


I've looked at the 2009 to 2011 drafts with a (subjective) top 5 for each College and HS:

2009: Strasburg, Kipnis, Goldschmidt, M.Carpenter, M.Minor (with Leake, Corbin, Joe Kelly, Seager, Khris Davis, Ackley, Yan Gomes, Storen, Brothers, L.Coleman, Boxberger, D.Hale) vs. Trout, S.Miller, Will Myers, C.Owings, Z.Wheeler (with Arenado, A.Crow, J.Turner, Skaggs, M.Davidson)

Good talent on both sides. Elite goes to HS, although the top 3 on both sides are simply young stars already. Depth goes to College easily.

2010: M.Harvey, Sale, Gyorko, Smyly, Calhoun (with Ranaudo, AJ Griffin, Addison Reed, K.Chapman and many other big leaguers) vs. (Taillon), Machado, Yelich, T.Walker, Castellanos (no other HS made it to the bigs, only those last 4)

College not only clearly wins the depth and % battle, but also the elite one for me.

2011: G.Cole, Sonny Gray, Cingrani, B.Miller, Erik Johnson (with Bauer, K.Wong, Rendon, Asche, Maronde, G.Springer, Hultzen, Alex Mayer etc) vs. J.Fernandez, A.Bradley, Lindor, Baez, Owens, (with Guerrieri, Bundy, Wisler, Crick, Vogelbach, Mookie Betts)

Lots of good talent on both sides. Depth goes to College again. Elite is a toss up although I'm sure many will disagree. The HS guys only have one proven guy, the rest can still bust hard. College has 3 legit FOR, who are already delivering in the bigs.

GeronimoSon wrote:Given a HS Arm/prospect that is equal to a College Arm/prospect.. take the HS kid. He's has more upside, in general. He's also more likely to be Dillon Howard..


That's actually my point: the HS spec in most cases can't be compared to a College spec. Lots of projection going on to level the comparison that gets ommitted. The HS arm is never really "equal". If they were, of course take the younger one. That's why more HS specs bust hard, the projection and comparisons were wrong. It's already tough enough to project College guys to higher Minors and then MLB, but from HS to MLB? It's like playing the lottery. Ask the Blue Jays, they've taken almost 40 HS specs in the top 10 rounds since 2009 and have nothing to show for on their team that matters (and that draft approach is starting to hurt in their lack of depth). The irony here is that their best HS pick was probably 15th rounder Hutchinson who made his debut yesterday.

My conclusion: take mostly College guys, mix in a HS spec and gamble on some HS/JC after round 10. That's the way to go, especially as a small market team.

Tondo,

I wouldn't go overboard all college, and not just because I'm not that good at picking them. We (the Tribe) have missed on quite a few of the HS picks but we also missed on most of the college guys we picked. Our top two specs are HS guys; granted, Frazier's pretty far away but in the article on the home page Johnny Goryl is raving about him & Goryl knows more about the game than probably anyone in the org. Lindor is damn near ready. Also Adam Miller; what might have been. Plus, it might be stupid of me, but if I'd known in advance what Wacha has done, I'd still have taken Gioloto. We were discussing possibility/hope of drafting Addisson Russell off of seeing vids when he was a HS Junior.

One more thing, I know that you're speaking generally re the HS/college player comps, but Phil Bickford and Matt Krook have been just as dominant as any college Junior/Senior this season. That tells me that the are as ready for the pros. I'll concede that HS guys generally take more time to develop, which adds risk. In addition, FWIW, most "experts" that I've read seem to believe that the instructors in MiLB are better than their college counterparts. I'm sure that there are exceptions.

I wouldn't want to give the impression that I disagree with the premise that it might be more productive to select mostly college guys, because at least this year I don't, but I'd prefer to keep it on a case by case (or draft year by draft year) basis. I'm sure you would too. Or maybe not. Disagreements are what makes horse racing...and lively discussion.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Fri Apr 04, 2014 6:35 pm

Something interesting (free content) from PG:

http://perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9693
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Sat Apr 05, 2014 11:19 am

Hadn't really thought about it until recently but Mark Payton would be a nice Senior sign type guy too. He's come back to earth a bit but his OPS is still over 1.000 & he does about everything well except hit HR's. The numbers that stick out to me are the 25 walks & 9 K's.

The org obviously has some interest. He's a tiny little shit but built like Kipnis. Maybe a stronger Tyler Holt. I have no idea where he'd get picked or what kind of money he'd want but there's not much leverage there for him. Someone to consider.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sun Apr 06, 2014 6:11 pm

The Indians will have the 8th largest spending pool for the June 5-7 MLB draft, per BA...$8,234,100 allotted to them. Here's the link...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/20 ... llowances/

Here's how the slot total breaks down per pk rds 1-10...

Rd 1 pk 21 = $2,008,100
Rd 1 pk 31 = $1,733,000 (Jimenez compensation pk)
Rd 1 pk 38 = $1,495,400 (competitive balance pk)
Rd 2 pk 61 = $928,700
Rd 3 pk 97 = $539,600
Rd 4 pk 128 = $400,200
Rd 5 pk 158 = $299,600
Rd 6 pk 188 = $224,300
Rd 7 pk 218 = $168,200
Rd 8 pk 248 = $154,800
Rd 9 pk 278 = $144,600
Rd 10 pk 308 = $137,600

That's 5 top 100 pks and 3 top 40 pks. It's a great opportunity for the Tribe to add some serious talent in what is widely regarded as a deep draft.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Mon Apr 07, 2014 7:52 am

Rocky55 wrote:Hadn't really thought about it until recently but Mark Payton would be a nice Senior sign type guy too. He's come back to earth a bit but his OPS is still over 1.000 & he does about everything well except hit HR's. The numbers that stick out to me are the 25 walks & 9 K's.

The org obviously has some interest. He's a tiny little shit but built like Kipnis. Maybe a stronger Tyler Holt. I have no idea where he'd get picked or what kind of money he'd want but there's not much leverage there for him. Someone to consider.


That works for me. I don't know about the money thing either but the general rule of thumb in the draft is the top 5 rounds are where you get the real talent, so I'd say look at Payton in the 6th round.

Speaking of Texas, what do you make of Dillon Peters? I think the money he wanted out of HS (near $1 million) was ridiculous; I still don't like him but he's had a good year (until recently getting lit up). Some people seem to like him, but not me. His velocity has been good but I just don't see it working for him in Double-A and above.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Mon Apr 07, 2014 8:07 am

Rocky55 wrote:I've liked college guys in the past but most don't turn out that good. They should pay me not to like them. That said, here's a guy that Klima likes & that OB will probably hate:

http://www.bbprospectreport.com/2014/03 ... more-17845

Klima's got different takes on most specs but knows how to look & what to look for & explains it pretty well.


You're right I'm not inclined to like him, but despite the slot he does get some good depth on his breaking ball. That's generally difficult to do when you throw like that, so it's a positive. To get swings and misses you need depth on breaking balls and he can do it. I see some Jake Peavy in him.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Tue Apr 08, 2014 1:17 am

OhioBaseball wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:I've liked college guys in the past but most don't turn out that good. They should pay me not to like them. That said, here's a guy that Klima likes & that OB will probably hate:

http://www.bbprospectreport.com/2014/03 ... more-17845

Klima's got different takes on most specs but knows how to look & what to look for & explains it pretty well.


You're right I'm not inclined to like him, but despite the slot he does get some good depth on his breaking ball. That's generally difficult to do when you throw like that, so it's a positive. To get swings and misses you need depth on breaking balls and he can do it. I see some Jake Peavy in him.

I noticed this guy for several reasons. He gets good movement & I like that. The arm works free & easy & he seemed to be around the plate. He was getting some pathetic defensive swings so there's some deception involved, seemingly without hiding the ball.

I was also considering last year's draft. Eubank is listed 6'1" & 190, although he doesn't look that heavy. How many guys of that general description did we select (and sign) last year? I counted 5 RHP's, two of whom are from California, so it looks like a short righty from Cal might be something the org would consider.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:30 pm

Here's BA's most recent rundown of some top prospects for the 2014 MLB Draft...

www.baseballamerica.com/college/2014-dr ... -dominate/
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Sat Apr 12, 2014 11:16 am

homerawayfromhome wrote:Here's BA's most recent rundown of some top prospects for the 2014 MLB Draft...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/ ... -dominate/


Based on that list, I kind of like where the Indians are selecting this year. I think there are some really nice, impact prospects available between 20th and 50th overall. If the draft were to hold steady to that list, I'd take INF Michael Chavis at #21. I think he's physically maxed out, but that guy takes some vicious cuts and for sure will be driving the ball for extra base hits. That's a really nice swing; very short to the ball and very good extension. He's got infield skills and can run, too. This guy is a good prospect. I don't really care if he's short (he's got big power with a very strong upper body), and there's not much room for physical improvement but there doesn't need to be.

I'd take LHP Matt Imhof at #31. It'd be him over Mike Papi, who all of a sudden has now received the respect he deserves on these lists? He hasn't set the world on fire with his bat this year or anything, but now he's jumped up these lists. I think its totally justified, btw. He deserves to be in first supplemental round and I've said that all along (I believe Rocky has, too). Anyhow, Matt Imhof, I see him as a weak 2/strong 3 starter in MLB. He's going to miss bats with his breaking ball. He looks like a young Andy Pettitte. I can't at all guarantee that type of success, but he pitches similarly to Pettitte.

At #38, oh boy am I tempted by Michael Kopech and Scott Blewett. I prefer Kopech. I'm tempted to pass on both b/c it's the Cleveland Indians and the track record of developing these types is quite poor. Kopech is such a boom-or-bust kind of guy that I'd lean toward bust with the Indians. I'd prefer the Indians take some projectable arms later in the draft b/c they can't invest too much money given their specific risk profile with these guys. I've always thought Derek Fisher was overrated. I like Alex Verdugo but am not sure he's got enough upside to justify the pick given that he's in HS (more risk as he develops). Stinnett and Cederoth intrigue me here but my mind is not made up. I'm going to take a day or two to see if there is someone off the board that I like here. This pick would be a lot easier if Mike Papi were available, and/or I trusted the Indians to develop teenage pitching.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sat Apr 12, 2014 3:04 pm

I noticed according to that list Luke Weaver is rated 34th overall, based on several recent mocks I've seen he could anywhere from top 10 to the lower 20's. I'd like him at 21, Matt Imhof or Kyle Freeland at 31 and at 38 maybe Derek Fisher, if he's there, I think he might be. Fisher, could be in for a bit of a slide with the injury and lack of production this yr. Personally, I won't be surprised to see the Tribe grab some pitching.

Right now I'm guessing they go...

1.21 Sean Reid-Foley
1.31 Matt Imhof
1.38 Chris Ellis
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Tue Apr 15, 2014 4:42 pm

Couple more Seniors to look at:

Brian Wolfe, U of Washington, 6'3" 205 lbs., RF/1B, L/L. In 33 games: 8-2B, 4 HR, 8 BB, 16 K's, .444/.477/.617/1.094.

Josh Prevost, Seton Hall, 6'8" 220lbs., RHP, 70 IP,42 hits, 13 ER, 9 BB, 69 K's, .169 BAA, .167 ERA. Just threw an 8 IP 1 hitter with 12 K's. It was against the New York Institute of Technology, but still.

Joey Epperson, UCSB, 6'3" 215, OF/1B, R/R, 31 games, 8-2B, 1-3B, 3 HR, 16 BB, 7 K's. .451/.528/.607/1.135. Actually found vid on him:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5swGLbhTl5o

Who do you like?
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Tue Apr 15, 2014 4:50 pm

OhioBaseball wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:Hadn't really thought about it until recently but Mark Payton would be a nice Senior sign type guy too. He's come back to earth a bit but his OPS is still over 1.000 & he does about everything well except hit HR's. The numbers that stick out to me are the 25 walks & 9 K's.

The org obviously has some interest. He's a tiny little shit but built like Kipnis. Maybe a stronger Tyler Holt. I have no idea where he'd get picked or what kind of money he'd want but there's not much leverage there for him. Someone to consider.


That works for me. I don't know about the money thing either but the general rule of thumb in the draft is the top 5 rounds are where you get the real talent, so I'd say look at Payton in the 6th round.

Speaking of Texas, what do you make of Dillon Peters? I think the money he wanted out of HS (near $1 million) was ridiculous; I still don't like him but he's had a good year (until recently getting lit up). Some people seem to like him, but not me. His velocity has been good but I just don't see it working for him in Double-A and above.

Just saw this. I agree, the org dodged a $1 million bullet by letting him walk. I saw him last year & he looked fine, but I didn't see any upside. He's not Sonny Gray. He seems to have regressed this year. He should have accepted the Tribe's offer if pro ball is what he wants. He did get an education, so the loss in this draft will be purely monetary. Who knows, he might go back to school.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Wed Apr 16, 2014 1:23 pm

Good article from PG, free content:

http://perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9746

Mentions the Draft chat tomorrow. If it's like the college chats you don't have to be a member.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Wed Apr 16, 2014 1:47 pm

PG has their Top 100 Draft Prospects list out today. The guys in the Tribe's slots are:

21. Michael Chavis

31. Kodi Medeiros

38. Matt Imhof

62. Jackson Reetz

99. Gareth Morgan

Stinnett goes 3 picks after Medeiros. I'm substituting. :cool
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed Apr 16, 2014 2:41 pm

Before it's News has

21. Kyle Freeland LHP
31. Michael Conforto OF
38. Michael Kopech RHP

in the Indians first three slots.. I would consider changing Sean Newcomb (who goes three picks after to the Pirates) for Freeland, but, either pitcher would be fine..

(the link: http://beforeitsnews.com/sports/2014/03 ... ttedPage=0 )
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Wed Apr 16, 2014 4:35 pm

Here's mymlbdraft.com's mock

Has Tribe getting...

Finnegan - LHSP
Medeiros - LHSP
Forbes - SS
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Wed Apr 16, 2014 4:37 pm

Here's a link to about every mock out there...

http://dcprosportsreport.com/MLBMocks.htm
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Fri Apr 18, 2014 12:09 pm

Some interesting College prospects.

Here's BA's top 100 Pitchers & Hitters...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/ ... on-update/
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Sun Apr 27, 2014 12:25 am

Wonder if the Tribe might be interested in re-drafting Jared Ruxer of Louisville. He beat UConn tonight for his 7th win of the season, going 6 IP, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K's. A pretty typical start, if you read his season stats. We drafted Kime out of Louisville last year and they must have liked Ruxer out of HS.

BTW, since coming back from the hamate surgery Derek Fisher has been en fuego. In 5 games/21AB, he has hit .381 with 8 hits, 3 doubles and a HR. Only 3 K's. Maybe the light has finally gone on for the sweet swinging OF. Speaking of that, I've heard reports of some good defense going on. The org could do worse at #21.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Tondo » Sun Apr 27, 2014 9:04 am

I'm starting to come around on some of the HS arms in this draft, namely M.Marshall, Castellani, McKinney, C.Johnson and above all Justus Sheffield. With HS specs it's a lot about money in this new draft sytem, but if it's fair, I'd take Marshall and Sheffield as soon as 31 or 38 depending on their demand and how to play around the budget game. If any of those falls to 62 due to their demand, take SR Stinnett at 38 (or 31) and SR Wetzler in the mid rounds to save some budget for a scenario like this.

At 21: If somehow one of Zimmer, Nola or Weaver drops, that should be the Indians pick, if not then I'd just take Imhof, but Finnegan or Freeland would be good too. Really any of the 6 would be a fine pick there.

At 31 and 38: Take Stinnett and then one of Marshall, Sheffield, Johnson or McKinney. If those 4 are gone, take a College bat: Schwarber, Papi or Fisher. Alternative: Lemond

At 62: whoever of the specs mentioned above dropped that far + Castellani

At 99: RHP Gossett

The Indians can come out of this draft with 3 or 4 legit FOR to MOR type specs. I would stay the hell away from HS bats, especially with the top picks, as I think it's much more of a crapshoot than HS arms.

My best case mock is something like: Zimmer, Imhof, Stinnett, Sheffield, Gossett/Lemond/A.Garcia in the top 100 plus Castellani/Sands, Wetzler in the mid rounds. Load up on arms
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Sun Apr 27, 2014 10:36 am

Tondo wrote:I'm starting to come around on some of the HS arms in this draft, namely M.Marshall, Castellani, McKinney, C.Johnson and above all Justus Sheffield. With HS specs it's a lot about money in this new draft sytem, but if it's fair, I'd take Marshall and Sheffield as soon as 31 or 38 depending on their demand and how to play around the budget game. If any of those falls to 62 due to their demand, take SR Stinnett at 38 (or 31) and SR Wetzler in the mid rounds to save some budget for a scenario like this.

At 21: If somehow one of Zimmer, Nola or Weaver drops, that should be the Indians pick, if not then I'd just take Imhof, but Finnegan or Freeland would be good too. Really any of the 6 would be a fine pick there.

At 31 and 38: Take Stinnett and then one of Marshall, Sheffield, Johnson or McKinney. If those 4 are gone, take a College bat: Schwarber, Papi or Fisher. Alternative: Lemond

At 62: whoever of the specs mentioned above dropped that far + Castellani

At 99: RHP Gossett

The Indians can come out of this draft with 3 or 4 legit FOR to MOR type specs. I would stay the hell away from HS bats, especially with the top picks, as I think it's much more of a crapshoot than HS arms.

My best case mock is something like: Zimmer, Imhof, Stinnett, Sheffield, Gossett/Lemond/A.Garcia in the top 100 plus Castellani/Sands, Wetzler in the mid rounds. Load up on arms

Sounds good but I like Keaton McKinney more than Sheffield. Great command with three potential plus pitches (the changeup is already there) in a large, low effort package. A HSer with upside who also might advance quickly. Also, Lemond may be injured as I haven't read of him pitching for a couple of weeks.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue Apr 29, 2014 5:04 pm

Here is mlb.com's new top 100 prospects...

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/ ... list=draft
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Apr 29, 2014 5:58 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:Here is mlb.com's new top 100 prospects...

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/ ... list=draft


A lot of pitchers on that list.. A few should be wearing Chief Wahoo on their sleeve. Hopefully, they'll all be big boys, none of these five foot eleven call me six foot hundred and seventy pound soft tossers who never make it out of A ball.. or shouldn't...

Nuke'em

Burdi.

Cederoth

Sylvester &

Guys..

That Gatewood kid swings a fast bat...
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue Apr 29, 2014 6:57 pm

Lemond is out with elbow inflammation.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue Apr 29, 2014 7:59 pm

Here's some of my favorites with projected pk...

1.21 Luke Weaver, Sean Reid-Foley, Derek Fisher, Brandon Finnegan
1.31 Matt Imhof, Nick Burdi, Jake Stinnett (SR.)
1.38 Chris Ellis, Taylor Sparks, Michael Kopech, Scott Blewett
2.67 Jake Cosart, Jake Lindgren, Jordan Foley, Brent Graves, JD Davis, Matt Chapman, Andrew Saurez,
3.97 Cobi Johnson, Keaton McKinney, Greg Allen (SR.), Chris Oliver, Andrew Gomber, Eric Skuglund
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Fri May 02, 2014 8:37 am

Not really doing a lot on Thursday... no game to anticipate a win or become disappointed with the results.. Just a chilly early spring day.. The June Rule IV Draft is now just a month away (June 5-7).. Going back through this thread, the names mentioned have grown from a scant few.. to several.. Homer's listing of two dozen or so names says.. wow.. lots of names.. Some we've heard... Others are new.. Using the same draft point listing.. here are those names you've heard from me:

August 13, 2013: Tyler Kolek: Gone before the Indians pick..

October 17, 2013: Michael Cederoth & Nick Burdi: Both available when the Indians pick

October 25, 2013: Sean "Nuke-Em" Newcomb: May be available for the Indians first pick

February 7, 2014: Jacob Gatewood, Karsten Whitson, Dylan Cease, Garrett Guys & Derrick Sylvester: All but Gatewood will be there when the Indians make their first pick. Gatewood may be there and represents, imho, the best overall talent coming out of the HS ranks as a position player.

March 30, 2014: Brad Zimmer, Derek Fisher, Erick Fedde, Braxton Davis, & Kyle Freeland: The availability of all five of these guys will be close.. For the most part, only Zimmer should be considered 1.21 candidate & unlikely to be there when the Indians select.

And, at the end of the day (after removing those names that the Indians have almost no hope what so ever of selecting) this is where I would rank/hope they get drafted by the Indians:

1.21 Sean Newcomb, Jacob Gatewood, Brad Zimmer,
1.31 Michael Cederoth, Nick Burdi, Derek Fisher, Braxton Davis, Dylan Cease,
1.38 Kyle Freeland, Erick Fedde & Karsten Whitson
2.67 Garrett Guys
3.97 Derrick Sylvester

A "baker's dozen" of talented players, 9 pitchers, 4 position players.... thoughts?
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Fri May 02, 2014 8:37 am

Oops... A double posting...and not sure why...
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Fri May 02, 2014 9:55 am

Saw Kentucky/Tennessee last night. AJ Reed crushed HR #20. He looks like a LH G-Mike Stanton out there. Bat speed has improved from his big chubby physique last season after working out & dropping 20 lbs. Great eye & pitch recognition. Just a scary, impressive hitter. His OPS is 1.317 & he plays in the SEC. He's what Schwarber wishes he was.

Imagine what happens when he stops pitching & can "concentrate" on hitting. I'm thinking that he should be in the mix for one of the Tribe's top picks if he's still around.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Hermie13 » Fri May 02, 2014 10:30 am

GeronimoSon wrote:Not really doing a lot on Thursday... no game to anticipate a win or become disappointed with the results.. Just a chilly early spring day.. The June Rule IV Draft is now just a month away (June 5-7).. Going back through this thread, the names mentioned have grown from a scant few.. to several.. Homer's listing of two dozen or so names says.. wow.. lots of names.. Some we've heard... Others are new.. Using the same draft point listing.. here are those names you've heard from me:

August 13, 2013: Tyler Kolek: Gone before the Indians pick..

October 17, 2013: Michael Cederoth & Nick Burdi: Both available when the Indians pick

October 25, 2013: Sean "Nuke-Em" Newcomb: May be available for the Indians first pick

February 7, 2014: Jacob Gatewood, Karsten Whitson, Dylan Cease, Garrett Guys & Derrick Sylvester: All but Gatewood will be there when the Indians make their first pick. Gatewood may be there and represents, imho, the best overall talent coming out of the HS ranks as a position player.

March 30, 2014: Brad Zimmer, Derek Fisher, Erick Fedde, Braxton Davis, & Kyle Freeland: The availability of all five of these guys will be close.. For the most part, only Zimmer should be considered 1.21 candidate & unlikely to be there when the Indians select.

And, at the end of the day (after removing those names that the Indians have almost no hope what so ever of selecting) this is where I would rank/hope they get drafted by the Indians:

1.21 Sean Newcomb, Jacob Gatewood, Brad Zimmer,
1.31 Michael Cederoth, Nick Burdi, Derek Fisher, Braxton Davis, Dylan Cease,
1.38 Kyle Freeland, Erick Fedde & Karsten Whitson
2.67 Garrett Guys
3.97 Derrick Sylvester

A "baker's dozen" of talented players, 9 pitchers, 4 position players.... thoughts?


Couple guys I'd add....one being Michael Chavis. Been mentioned by a few of us on here and personally still like him a lot in the 1st round for us...wouldn't even be opposed to him at 21 (though if you can get him at 31, I'd take it). Love his versatility in the field and the bat could be special. Wouldn't rule out Gettys falling to 21 either at this point.

Another name I'd add is Taylor Sparks. Tribe drafted him out of high school back in 2011 and been very good at UC Irvine. More a 2nd round guy IMO but may sneak into the bottom of the 1st round.

Matt Imhof probably should be in there in the late 1st. Walking a lot more guys this year than last but the jump in K-rate and limiting hits has more than made up for it.

My guy that is almost definitely not going to be available that I'd add....Grant Holmes. Hard to imagine he'd fall out of the top 10-15 at this point but if he were too would be a nice steal at 21. Only thing that could bump him down is doesn't have as much projection left as some of the high school kids.


Really like Freeland...though may be wishful thinking on him being there at 38. That K/BB ratio is unreal and the Cape Cod performance last year was very good too. At this point...I would strongly consider taking him at 21, and IMO good chance he doesn't even last to that point (heard some chatter of him as high as 6th to the Mariners).
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Hermie13 » Fri May 02, 2014 12:47 pm

Keith Law is reporting that Erick Feede won't pitch this weekend vs Clemson. UNLV's coach says he is 100% healthy though...
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Fri May 02, 2014 12:58 pm

I'm warming to the thoughts of Michael Chavis, he's bound to land at 3b or a corner OF position, but I really don't want to see him draft any higher than 38. Of course that depends who else is there, but there should be some talented arms there when the Tribe picks. IF any of Newcomb, Holmes, Reid-Foley, Toussaint*, Freeland, Weaver, Fedde, Finnegan are still there I'd much rather see the Tribe go for the arms. I'm not really a Toussaint fan.

Honestly, I'd much rather see the Tribe land a college arm than a HS arm that high (unless it were Kolek or Aiken). Otherwise I can't see the Tribe spending their 1st rd pk on a HS arm at this point. Having seen their recent history with HS arms I'm concerned they'd flame out before ever making it through the system. What I'm saying is pretty simple, unless the HS arm has Ace potential they should avoid them early on. The Tribe cannot afford the risk with their top pk, in this draft. There is a ton of depth, plus several of the college arms still offer upside.

An example is Luke Weaver, some would say he's a two pitch pitcher, but if he can tighten up his slider / slurve then he's got a real chance to become a #2 SP IMO. Plus, he has the frame to get a bit stronger. On draft day I hope he's the pick at 21, unless someone unexpected slides.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Hermie13 » Fri May 02, 2014 4:22 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:I'm warming to the thoughts of Michael Chavis, he's bound to land at 3b or a corner OF position, but I really don't want to see him draft any higher than 38. Of course that depends who else is there, but there should be some talented arms there when the Tribe picks. IF any of Newcomb, Holmes, Reid-Foley, Toussaint*, Freeland, Weaver, Fedde, Finnegan are still there I'd much rather see the Tribe go for the arms. I'm not really a Toussaint fan.


3B seems likely but I would not rule out 2B for him. Way more athletic and better defensively than some have said. Think he could be a Jedd Gyorko type down the line.

Interesting but Law had a draft article up the other day and talked about Chavis as a potential catcher. Has a good arm and is athletic...I'd try to keep him from back there but his bat would play very well behind the dish.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Sun May 04, 2014 10:57 pm

PG Mock Draft, Tribe selections:

21: Kodi Medeiros

31: Jacob Bukauskas

http://perfectgame.org/Players/Playerpr ... ?ID=296192

38: Derek Fisher

I like Fisher, especially at #38. The Tribe picking 2 HS pitchers? Medeiros is hugely talented but if any org could screw him up, it would be ours. Interestingly, they went through 41 picks and no one took Imhof. If we could sub him for Bukaukas I'd be happy with the haul. Nobody took Papi or AJ Reed either.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Mon May 05, 2014 4:41 pm

Rocky55 wrote:PG Mock Draft, Tribe selections:

21: Kodi Medeiros

31: Jacob Bukauskas

http://perfectgame.org/Players/Playerpr ... ?ID=296192

38: Derek Fisher

I like Fisher, especially at #38. The Tribe picking 2 HS pitchers? Medeiros is hugely talented but if any org could screw him up, it would be ours. Interestingly, they went through 41 picks and no one took Imhof. If we could sub him for Bukaukas I'd be happy with the haul. Nobody took Papi or AJ Reed either.

I really hope the Tribe avoids any HS arms with the first 3 picks. As much as I like Reid-Foley, and Holmes I like the college arms that could be there like Weaver, Newcomb, Freeland, Finnegan, Fedde, Burdi, Imhof, Ellis, etc as much or better, plus they will be big league ready quicker with similar upside (ceilings) to the HS arms that might be there.

I think the Tribe stands to land a talent like Fisher whose draft selection doesn't match their projection. Prior to this season Fisher was in several top 10 lists I read, but his injury will likely cause his stock to drop a bit.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Mon May 05, 2014 5:16 pm

-Medieros is a six foot nothing lefty/180 pound soon to be not taller or more physically mature guy who projects where?... WHY WOULD the Indians waste their top pick on a HS arm attached to such a little guy?..

-Bukauskas.. IDK nothing about his kid..perhaps..maybe.. IDK..

-Derek Fisher.. other that his slump.. this is a BASEBALL STUD.. this kid can hit when he's right.. No problems with him later in the the Indians draft..perhaps top five rounds?..

PG's mock seem unimpressive...
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Tondo » Tue May 06, 2014 12:49 pm

HS class keeps growing on me and so do the College thumpers. I'd like to get one of AJ Reed or Gillaspie with the 3 top picks

1.21 Casey Gillaspie, Luke Weaver
1.31 Matt Imhof, Jake Stinnett (SR.), AJ Reed
1.38 Mac Marshall, Keith Weisenberg, Justus Sheffield, Bobby Bradley
2.67 Jacob Lindgren, Derek Hill, Forrest Wall, Chase Vallot
3.97+ Cobi Johnson, Keaton McKinney, Nick Howard, Aramis Garcia, Gossett, Carson Sands

For the top 5 picks a mix of those would be good balance:

1 of Weaver, Imhof, Stinnett = "safe" College SP
1 of Gillaspie, AJ Reed (maybe 1 of JD Davis, Papi, Travis, Sparks, Chapman later if both gone) = College power/bat
1 of J.Sheffield, Weisenberg, Mac Marshall, C.Johnson, McKinney, Sands = advanced HS arm
1 of B.Bradley, D.Hill, F.Wall, C.Vallot = HS bat
+
1 of Gossett, Holmes (SR), Lindgren, N.Howard, Z.Lemond = another "safe" College arm, but you could double up on any of the other groups, depending on preference and probably draft budget gaming. If, say, the Indians draft Stinnett at 31 or even 21 and save a lot of budget doing so, they've put themselves in a position to pick nice HS value in the 2nd to 6th round range, because it happens every draft now that HS talent drops due to $$. I expect a handful of the specs mentioned to go in the 4th to 7th round range
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed May 07, 2014 3:39 pm

Jeff Hoffman, East Carolina's Friday night guy, will have Tommy John Surgery on Thursday.. He is draft eligible and could have been considered a top five overall pick in the June first entry draft.. If he falls to the compensatory or competitive balance area of the draft.. the Indians could do a HELLUVA lot worse than drafting him.. Even at # 21, this kid could be worth the gamble..

Thoughts?
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Wed May 07, 2014 3:45 pm

GSon,

You beat me to the punch.

I concur...Sean Manaea went 34 overall last yr. Three picks in the top 40 gives the Tribe three shots at him. I'd grab him at 21 and then go from there. Hoffman is an advanced college arm that looked quick to the majors, there's a chance he flops, but the same with any other prospect. I'd rather see them go Hoffman than a HS arm.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Hermie13 » Wed May 07, 2014 4:05 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:Jeff Hoffman, East Carolina's Friday night guy, will have Tommy John Surgery on Thursday.. He is draft eligible and could have been considered a top five overall pick in the June first entry draft.. If he falls to the compensatory or competitive balance area of the draft.. the Indians could do a HELLUVA lot worse than drafting him.. Even at # 21, this kid could be worth the gamble..

Thoughts?


Indians are in a good position to draft Hoffman too having 3 top 40 picks. Can afford to take a chance on a guy coming off injury, plus could still give him good money even at 21 (can save money by going a bit safer with a later 1st).

Lots of baseball people had Lucas Giolito potentially going to the Blue Jays for similar reasons (had multiple 1st rounders)...
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed May 07, 2014 4:14 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:GSon,

You beat me to the punch.

I concur...Sean Manaea went 34 overall last yr. Three picks in the top 40 gives the Tribe three shots at him. I'd grab him at 21 and then go from there. Hoffman is an advanced college arm that looked quick to the majors, there's a chance he flops, but the same with any other prospect. I'd rather see them go Hoffman than a HS arm.


It's what I live for.. now I can die a happy man...

Even with Giolito's projected arm issues, I had the Indians taking him @ # 15 for the Indians.. Alas, Tyler Naquin was the pick.. one that I still believe was motivated by "these guys are the smartest in the room" swag that back fired..

-1.21 Hoffman @ then..

-1.31 Michael Cederoth / Nick Burdi
-1.38 Kyle Freeland/Erick Fedde/Karsten Whitson
-2.67 Garrett Guys
-3.97 Derrick Sylvester

Five front of the rotation type arms.. could be for the best...
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Wed May 07, 2014 4:18 pm

1.21 Jeff Hoffman
1.31 Matt Imhof
1.38 Jake Stinnett (sr.)
2.67 Jake Cosart
3.99 Greg Allen (sr.)

I'd be a happy man.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Wed May 07, 2014 10:31 pm

I'm on the Hoffman bandwagon. We'd better pick him at #21 or you know the tigers will 2 picks later, Then he'll turn into Verlander & we'll have to be pissed for his entire career.

I haven't got any big preferences other than Stinnett, Papi & McKinney.

Question for G: Is this the "guy" that you want?

http://www.oceagles.com/baseball/garrett-guys/

Know what? The latest vids of Schwarber that I've seen his swing looks a lot shorter. I read a his pre-draft profile on PG in which he's comped with Pronk. If you look at the vid you can see it. He's probably being picked before 21 & I don't really want him but the bat looks impressive right now.

Back to Hoffman, Frankie Piliere likes him better than anyone in the draft. Piliere, IMO, is the closest thing to a scout that PG has.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Wed May 07, 2014 11:03 pm

Then again, does this remind anyone else of Dylan Bundy?

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/Vie ... ticle=9748
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu May 08, 2014 9:36 am

A cpl other interesting players could slide bc of injury. Might be a cpl value buys for the Tribe..

Luis Ortiz - RHSP Cal. HS (elbow soreness) velo has been down from 92-95
Zech Lemond - RHSP Rice (elbow soreness / irritation)
Derek Fisher - OF U of Va. (Broken hamate - has since returned)

I'd really like to see the Tribe take a gamble IF Hoffman is there, if he's not than one of those three at some point later.
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