John Sickels Says WHAT??????

[indianinkslinger]

My copy of the baseball America prospect handbook arrived today as did the 31st player per team supplement

First off: tribe system is ranked 29th overall. thanks for the bulletin board material guys. I have a feeling as many players return from injuries, the ranking will get back into the teens next year.

We have already seen the top 10 players listed so here is 11 thru 31
11. Elvis Araujo, lhp
12. Tyler Sturdevant, lhp
13. Ronny Rodriguez, SS
14. Jake Sisco, rhp (DS9)
15. Cord Phelps, 2b/SS
16. Trey Haley, rhp
17. Mike Rayl, lhp
18. Nick Weglarz, of
19. LeVon Washington, of
20. Felix Sterling, rhp
21. T.J. McFarland, lhp
22. Hector Rondon, rhp
23. Josh Judy, rhp
24. Bryce Stowell, rhp
25. Jesus Aguilar, 1b
26. Chun Chen, c
27. Jake Lowery, c/1b
28. Bryson Myles, of
29. Matt Packer, lhp
30. Jordan Smith, 3b/of
31. Dorssys Paulino, SS

Got to say, I'm surprised that Rob Bryson didn't make the list anywhere. Tony- please tell me I'm not heading down the Neil Wagner path with yet another bullpen guy.

Not a terrible list but not one I would endorse wholeheartedly. Interesting to me is this is the only list I have seen which features Trey Haley this prominently which is my opinion also. My pitching prospects are considerably different but there is not a lot to quibble about since many are so close at this time.

[TonyIBI]

Got to say, I'm surprised that Rob Bryson didn't make the list anywhere. Tony- please tell me I'm not heading down the Neil Wagner path with yet another bullpen guy.

He's a reliever....they don't rank well. Plus, he's been passed over by others and his value has dropped significantly.

[JP_Frost]

Got to say, I'm surprised that Rob Bryson didn't make the list anywhere. Tony- please tell me I'm not heading down the Neil Wagner path with yet another bullpen guy.

He's a reliever....they don't rank well. Plus, he's been passed over by others and his value has dropped significantly.

Yes, but so are Sturdevant, Haley, Judy and Stowell. This is also the first time I've seen Rayl ranked so high. And I don't see how you can rank Rondon higher than Knapp, who is left off the list completely.

Obviously I'm very biased, but I really don't see how the Indians have the second worst farm system in baseball. It has a ton of upside, albeit at the lower levels and some major league complimentary pieces in the upper minors. That's not great, but I don't think it deserves to be ranked any lower than 25th.

If all goes well next year, I could see the system being ranked in the top 15.

[Hermie13]

Got to say, I'm surprised that Rob Bryson didn't make the list anywhere. Tony- please tell me I'm not heading down the Neil Wagner path with yet another bullpen guy.

He's a reliever....they don't rank well. Plus, he's been passed over by others and his value has dropped significantly.

Yes, but so are Sturdevant, Haley, Judy and Stowell. This is also the first time I've seen Rayl ranked so high. And I don't see how you can rank Rondon higher than Knapp, who is left off the list completely.

Obviously I'm very biased, but I really don't see how the Indians have the second worst farm system in baseball. It has a ton of upside, albeit at the lower levels and some major league complimentary pieces in the upper minors. That's not great, but I don't think it deserves to be ranked any lower than 25th.

If all goes well next year, I could see the system being ranked in the top 15.

I can see how we are ranked 29th right now. Really other than Lindor there's nothing super special about our system. Lots of guys with big ceilings but so young and raw, hard to rate them high.

I do agree with your last statement....the Tribe is set up in a way that they could have a huge jump next year. Top 15 as a system seems very reasonable...I think Lindor could be a top 10 guy as well.

[TonyIBI]

Yes, but so are Sturdevant, Haley, Judy and Stowell. This is also the first time I've seen Rayl ranked so high. And I don't see how you can rank Rondon higher than Knapp, who is left off the list completely.

Obviously I'm very biased, but I really don't see how the Indians have the second worst farm system in baseball. It has a ton of upside, albeit at the lower levels and some major league complimentary pieces in the upper minors. That's not great, but I don't think it deserves to be ranked any lower than 25th.

If all goes well next year, I could see the system being ranked in the top 15.

Well, I was answering more on Bryson. Can't explain the others. That's BAs listing. I agree there is not way Rondon should be higher than Knapp....though Rayl is a legit prospect and in my Top 30. Sturdevant too.

As for the farm system ranking, I'm not surprised. If you look at all the Indians top prospects, they are all in the lower levels save for a few bullpen guys and middle to back of rotation starters in Akron/Columbus. I don't know how BA does their ranking, but I believe the ranking is based on more proven talent and closer to the big leagues. If you have a good system with a lot of talent in AAA/AA, then you will get ranked high. If you have a lot of talent but it is unproven and risky and in Single-A and dont have much in AAA/AA, you will rank low.

[jellis]

Got to say, I'm surprised that Rob Bryson didn't make the list anywhere. Tony- please tell me I'm not heading down the Neil Wagner path with yet another bullpen guy.

He's a reliever....they don't rank well. Plus, he's been passed over by others and his value has dropped significantly.

Yes, but so are Sturdevant, Haley, Judy and Stowell. This is also the first time I've seen Rayl ranked so high. And I don't see how you can rank Rondon higher than Knapp, who is left off the list completely.

Obviously I'm very biased, but I really don't see how the Indians have the second worst farm system in baseball. It has a ton of upside, albeit at the lower levels and some major league complimentary pieces in the upper minors. That's not great, but I don't think it deserves to be ranked any lower than 25th.

If all goes well next year, I could see the system being ranked in the top 15.

I can see how we are ranked 29th right now. Really other than Lindor there's nothing super special about our system. Lots of guys with big ceilings but so young and raw, hard to rate them high.

I do agree with your last statement....the Tribe is set up in a way that they could have a huge jump next year. Top 15 as a system seems very reasonable...I think Lindor could be a top 10 guy as well.

agreed, but there is a chance we could even be lower next year if no one breaks right really the system is so volatility

[Prosecutor]

This guy broke down Brantley's numbers and thinks he improved in 2011 and may have a breakout year.

http://www.letsgotribe.com/2012/1/29/2757374/swing-michael-swing

Brantley is listed as 6'2", 200 lbs, which is closer to Grady Sizemore than Kenny Lofton, who he was compared to when we traded for him. But because he's black, hits left-handed, and has speed but little power fans are expecting him to play CF, bat leadoff, and steal bases. He's not that kind of player.

Someone said he needs to walk more. The letsgotribe guy pointed out that 38% of the strikes on Brantley last year were called strikes as opposed to the ML average of 29%. IOW, he's taking too many strikes. He may be trying to draw walks and work the count in order to fit into the leadoff role. From what I've seen he's patient to a fault. He almost never swings at balls or borderline pitches.

I think the Tribe should just put him in left field every day, bat him 7th or thereabouts and let him play his game and see what develops. Asdrubal Cabrera metamorphasized into a 25 HR guy last year when his previous career high was 12. Grady developed into a 33 HR guy before he got hurt. The Tribe should stop trying to force Brantley into being the next Kenny Lofton and just let him develop into whatever kind of hitter his ability allows him to be. I expect he'll develop more power as he moves into his mid-to-late 20's like a lot of other players have done.

If he can hit .290 with 20 HR's, good speed on the bases, and above average range in left field then he'll be fine. Especially since we've got nothing in the farm system as far as OF is concerned (anybody still pinning their hopes on Wegs?) and we're reduced to taking flyers on guys like Neal and Pie.

[Hermie13]

I can see how we are ranked 29th right now. Really other than Lindor there's nothing super special about our system. Lots of guys with big ceilings but so young and raw, hard to rate them high.

I do agree with your last statement....the Tribe is set up in a way that they could have a huge jump next year. Top 15 as a system seems very reasonable...I think Lindor could be a top 10 guy as well.

agreed, but there is a chance we could even be lower next year if no one breaks right really the system is so volatility

Anything is possible; we definitely could go lower technically. Guess I just see the White Sox being lower...and very possibly the Tigers simply by the fact that Jacob Turner could lose his prospect status this year. Take him out...and not sure that Tigers system is much better than ours right now. Think you'll see us rise even without many breakouts.

[Hermie13]

This guy broke down Brantley's numbers and thinks he improved in 2011 and may have a breakout year.

http://www.letsgotribe.com/2012/1/29/2757374/swing-michael-swing

Brantley is listed as 6'2", 200 lbs, which is closer to Grady Sizemore than Kenny Lofton, who he was compared to when we traded for him. But because he's black, hits left-handed, and has speed but little power fans are expecting him to play CF, bat leadoff, and steal bases. He's not that kind of player.

Someone said he needs to walk more. The letsgotribe guy pointed out that 38% of the strikes on Brantley last year were called strikes as opposed to the ML average of 29%. IOW, he's taking too many strikes. He may be trying to draw walks and work the count in order to fit into the leadoff role. From what I've seen he's patient to a fault. He almost never swings at balls or borderline pitches.

I think the Tribe should just put him in left field every day, bat him 7th or thereabouts and let him play his game and see what develops. Asdrubal Cabrera metamorphasized into a 25 HR guy last year when his previous career high was 12. Grady developed into a 33 HR guy before he got hurt. The Tribe should stop trying to force Brantley into being the next Kenny Lofton and just let him develop into whatever kind of hitter his ability allows him to be. I expect he'll develop more power as he moves into his mid-to-late 20's like a lot of other players have done.

If he can hit .290 with 20 HR's, good speed on the bases, and above average range in left field then he'll be fine. Especially since we've got nothing in the farm system as far as OF is concerned (anybody still pinning their hopes on Wegs?) and we're reduced to taking flyers on guys like Neal and Pie.

I agree with the bolded parts. I really hope Brantley is not batting leadoff opening day. 6th/7th seems more appropriate. Also agree that if can hit 20 HRs and have good speed on the bases he could be a solid LFer. Don't really care about batting average but if he can at least get his OBP to the .340 range I'd be happy (would like it a lot higher but baby steps). Guess I just have my doubts on his power (though he did show a big improvement there). Also not sure he'll show that great of speed on the bases. He is fast, but speed doesn't necesssarily mean good baserunning. Was very disappointed in his SB total and attempts. BP had a good article up late in the season about how Brantley needs to run more. Perhaps though with another year under his belt (and hopefully better 1B coach) he can improve in that department.

I still think brantley needs to play CF long-term. We don't have anyone for the position after Grady unless Donald really steps up or Carrera outperforms...or Washington just goes off and can get to Cleveland a lot quicker than most think.

[Edible14]

If Brantley develops that kind of power, I'd be giddy. But I don't really know where that expectation comes from. He's never shown it, and the only thing I've really heard in support is that he's skinny and should fill out a bit. But that doesn't necessarily happen, and even if it does, it still might not make him a 20 HR/year hitter. His isolated power from last year was .118, which is the best he's ever put up in his career even in the minors. That still puts his power right at Casey Kotchman level (ISO = .116). Which isn't great.

[JP_Frost]

If Brantley develops that kind of power, I'd be giddy. But I don't really know where that expectation comes from. He's never shown it, and the only thing I've really heard in support is that he's skinny and should fill out a bit. But that doesn't necessarily happen, and even if it does, it still might not make him a 20 HR/year hitter. His isolated power from last year was .118, which is the best he's ever put up in his career even in the minors. That still puts his power right at Casey Kotchman level (ISO = .116). Which isn't great.

Agreed.

I too think that 20 HR's is very optimistic. Physically he looks capable, but his swing doesn't, and unless that changes I don't see it happening. That said, I do think he'll get to double digits in the homerun department and perhaps peaking out around 15 jacks a season. That's not bad at all.

[Prosecutor]

Asdrubal Cabrera was plugged into the lineup as the stereotypical Latin middle infielder hitting 2nd in the order. His job was to get on base for the run producers. His home run totals his first four years were 3, 6, 6, and 3. Then last spring OCab told him he was capable of hitting for power and he should start doing it, even from the 2 hole. ACab responded with 25 HR's, which nobody on this board ever thought he was capable of. It was just a matter of ignoring what he was expected to do as a #2 hitter and let his natural talent emerge.

Brantley was plugged in as a leadoff hitter from Day 1 and compared to Kenny Lofton for obvious reasons. Somebody needs to tell him he's a left fielder, he's not a leadoff hitter (OBP is too low), and he should start driving the ball and not worry about trying to lead the league in walks. I'd like to see what happens.

[Edible14]

Asdrubal showed flashes of that power, even in the minors. If you look at his 2007 AA stats (ISO .144 over 96 games) and his 2008 AAA stats (.149 in 34), you can see some of those flashes. Brantley, on the other hand, has never put up impressive slugging numbers. I'm not saying it can't happen, but I think it would be foolish to expect it to happen.

Brantley has to generate some value somewhere if he's going to stick around. Power would be nice, but I think he's probably more likely to add value with walks, defense and stolen bases. All three of which the Indians sorely lack.

[Prosecutor]

I hear you, edible, but Brantley had 7 HR's last year in 451 AB's, which is more HR's than Asdrubal ever hit in his first four years, even with more AB's. And Brantley has 20 pounds on him, more or less. There's no reason to think he can't ever hit more than 15 HR's.

Brantley isn't going to draw walks until he starts punishing pitchers for throwing the ball over the plate. Who has led the Tribe in walks the last few years? Santana in 2011, if I'm not mistaken, and Hafner before that. Brantley is extremely patient, takes more strikes than the average hitter, and doesn't chase bad pitches. He still doesn't get walked much because pitchers don't respect him. And because he falls behind in the count by trying to work the pitcher for a walk.

Brantley needs to lose the leadoff hitter mentality, get aggressive at the plate, jump on the first good pitch he sees, and start ripping line drives into the gaps and the right field corner. He needs to start hitting doubles. Grady hit 53 doubles his second full season. The home runs will come as Brantley continues to mature. I'm not saying he'll hit 25, but there's no reason he can't. He actually doesn't need to as long as he hits for a good average with a lot of doubles and excellent range in left field.

In spite of having above average speed, I don't see Brantley as a base stealer. He's just not good at it. He doesn't know how to get good jumps. ACab had a better base stealing percentage last year, although Brantley wasn't bad at 72%. If he were hitting lower in the order he could run more often and probably get better at it. Manny didn't want him getting thrown out with ACab, Choo, and Santana coming up.

[Pork Chop Pough]

Keith Law's Top 10 for the Tribe:

1. Francisco Lindor, SS
2. Austin Adams, RHP
3. Dillon Howard, RHP
4. Nick Hagadone, LHP
5. Ronny Rodriguez, SS
6. Chun Chen, C
7. Jesus Aguilar, 1B
8. Chen Lee, RHP
9. Jake Sisco, RHP
10. Tony Wolters, IF

For his overall Top 100, he has Lindor at #35, and I was surprised to see him give Adams one of his ten honorable mentions beyond the top 100.

[A.Zajac]

Keith Law's Top 10 for the Tribe:

1. Francisco Lindor, SS
2. Austin Adams, RHP
3. Dillon Howard, RHP
4. Nick Hagadone, LHP
5. Ronny Rodriguez, SS
6. Chun Chen, C
7. Jesus Aguilar, 1B
8. Chen Lee, RHP
9. Jake Sisco, RHP
10. Tony Wolters, IF

For his overall Top 100, he has Lindor at #35, and I was surprised to see him give Adams one of his ten honorable mentions beyond the top 100.

His list couldn't be any more different than Mayo's...

1. Francisco Lindor, SS
2. Dillon Howard, RHP
3. Nick Hagadone, LHP
4. Tony Wolters, INF
5. Scott Barnes, LHP
6. Ronny Rodriguez, SS
7. CC Lee, RHP
8. Austin Adams, RHP
9. Alex Monsalve, C
10. Felix Sterling

[GoTribe028]

Keith Law's Top 10 for the Tribe:

1. Francisco Lindor, SS
2. Austin Adams, RHP
3. Dillon Howard, RHP
4. Nick Hagadone, LHP
5. Ronny Rodriguez, SS
6. Chun Chen, C
7. Jesus Aguilar, 1B
8. Chen Lee, RHP
9. Jake Sisco, RHP
10. Tony Wolters, IF

For his overall Top 100, he has Lindor at #35, and I was surprised to see him give Adams one of his ten honorable mentions beyond the top 100.

He must be viewing Austin Adams as a potential ML starter rather than a reliever right? Couldn't possibly see Law putting a reliever over Dillon Howard based off all the other rankings I've seen.

[criznit2009]

Keith Law's Top 10 for the Tribe:

1. Francisco Lindor, SS
2. Austin Adams, RHP
3. Dillon Howard, RHP
4. Nick Hagadone, LHP
5. Ronny Rodriguez, SS
6. Chun Chen, C
7. Jesus Aguilar, 1B
8. Chen Lee, RHP
9. Jake Sisco, RHP
10. Tony Wolters, IF

For his overall Top 100, he has Lindor at #35, and I was surprised to see him give Adams one of his ten honorable mentions beyond the top 100.

His list couldn't be any more different than Mayo's...

1. Francisco Lindor, SS
2. Dillon Howard, RHP
3. Nick Hagadone, LHP
4. Tony Wolters, INF
5. Scott Barnes, LHP
6. Ronny Rodriguez, SS
7. CC Lee, RHP
8. Austin Adams, RHP
9. Alex Monsalve, C
10. Felix Sterling

Haven't counted but at least 15 names in the various top tens so far and more to come. It would be interesting to find out how close Law thinks Adams and Howard are as far as being 2 and 3.

[jellis]

Anyone else feel like Mayo is full of crap. He posted his end of the season top 10, and a guy who was second didn't even make his top 20 now. Which came out after he saw what other people put out there. Just struck me as sketchy

[OhioBaseball]

I can see where Law is coming from on Austin Adams.

Adams has done a really good job developing into a pitching prospect the last few years. He looked like a middle infielder when he was drafted, but since then, he's done a very good job developing his body and adding stength, particularly in his lower half.

As a short RHP, he's easy to overlook, but he's actually quite strong and developed physically, and his arm slot is high, partially offsetting his lack of height.

Austin Adams is a very good example the scouting department getting a little creative and the minor league development people crafting him into a good prospect. Well done by Adams and the Indians.

Adam's delivery is really quite great w/ a good arm action, he's strong, he's got good velocity, and at this point, it doesn't take a lot of imagination to see him as a 4 starter (with 3 starter upside) in the major leagues in 2013-2014. He's one of the better kept secrets in the Indians system. Good job by Law by pointing him out.

[A.Zajac]

Anyone else feel like Mayo is full of crap. He posted his end of the season top 10, and a guy who was second didn't even make his top 20 now. Which came out after he saw what other people put out there. Just struck me as sketchy

Meh, I give Mayo more credit though than Keith Law. Still can't stand Law...

[Hermie13]

Anyone else feel like Mayo is full of crap. He posted his end of the season top 10, and a guy who was second didn't even make his top 20 now. Which came out after he saw what other people put out there. Just struck me as sketchy

Was thinking the same thing. I like Mayo but not his prospect analyses.

[Hermie13]

Goldstein at BP has his top 101 prospects up for the year. Only Indian was Francisco Lindor ranking in at 17. 4th highest of the 2011 draftees behind Bundy, Cole, and Bauer. Also higher than Pomeranz.

[Pork Chop Pough]

Francisco Lindor comes in at #37 on Baseball America's Top 100. Needless to say, he was the only Tribe prospect on the list.

[MadThinker88]

For those interested, the Minor League Baseball Analyst book is out. It puts out a top 15 list of prosepcts for each organization, ranks the varous farm systems, grades prospects and proposes a handful of top 100 lists. Another thing it does (& a point I greatly enjoy) is it ranks prospects by position & skills.

If you want the various grades, I encourage you to pick up a copy of the book.

As for the rankings, Lindor was ranked as the 6th shortstop prospect. Other tribe prospects ranked: starting pitchers 54- Knapp, 68- J. Sisco, 75- D. Howard. Relief pitchers 4- Hagadone, 14- C.C. Lee

Indians were ranked 18th as an organization with a B- grade overall; hitting as a C+, pitching as a B, top-end talent as a B, depth as a B-