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Possible Rule 5 targets?

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Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Nov 26, 2008 12:53 pm

Most of the Rule 5 talk has been about what players the Tribe could lose in the draft (Brown, Lofgren, Newom, etc). But what about some players the Tribe could be willing to take a shot on?

One name that really sticks out to me is Donald Veal of the Cubs. He was a top 60 prospect in all of baseball just over a year ago. Dealt with some personal issues last offseason and struggled a bit again as a starter in AA, but does have a great live arm.

He should be moved to the pen. He's a lefty in the mold of a Raffy Perez. Lefties his .221 off him while righties hit .290. And I found an even more interesting stat: out of the wind-up, Veal posted a 2.06 WHIP, including 6.09 BB/9 and a .310 BAA. From the stretch, however, batters hit just .236 against him, and he dropped his BB/9 rate to 3.84.

Has a mid-90s fastball, changeup, and a curveball that was ranked the best in the Cubs organiztion. His deceptive delivery would also play out well in the pen (kinda like Jensen Lewis's has).

He'll likely be in high demand and wouldn't shock me if he was the #1 pick in this year's draft. Sipp is on his way....but still no gurantee of making it to the big league club in 2009 after the TJ surgery. After him, there's not much else as far as solid lefty relievers. I personally think we need to add a vet lefty in the offseason, but a guy like Veal who would only cost $50K would be a low-risk option as well.

I do realize we only have 1 roster spot open....but could always dump Mujica or a trade could happen oppening another spot for more help. Most likely though we'll remain inactive during the draft, but you never know.

Again, just an idea. Any other players the Tribe could possibly be interested in?
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby MadThinker88 » Wed Nov 26, 2008 1:02 pm

Interesting question, especially since you listed a possible target.

Even if the player you suggest is available for Cleveland to take, do you really think he would be a better pick-up for the bullpen then using Sipp, Rundles or one of the other internal bullpen options (Meloan, Stevens, Adam Miller)??? Bringing in Veal likely costs one of guys I named a spot in the bullpen to start the season.

It's not like Sipp just had the TJ surgery. That was done in July 2007. He was back picking in games in June 2008 and he finished out the season with a WHIP hovering at or under 1.05. On top of that he is pitching winter ball to help make up for the lost innings.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby Duane Kuiper » Wed Nov 26, 2008 1:03 pm

None. The Indians don't have room on the roster for a Rule 5 guy.

Veal walked 154 batters the last 2 years (275 IP). Pitchers without control get bombed in the ML. Homer Bailey?

And Veal has been a SP. Who knows if he can relieve.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby carnegie44115 » Wed Nov 26, 2008 1:48 pm

Yeah I don't think the Indians will draft anyone either, if I had to say someone for them to draft, I'd say Alan Horne. He did not pitch much this year, so not sure of his status, a TJ surgery patient already once, but he did pitch well at Trenton in 2007. Once again not something I think they should or would do, but just throwing it out there.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Nov 26, 2008 1:54 pm

Acutally adding Veal would likely cost Mujica or Jackson a spot in the bullpen......doubt anyone would lose a lot of sleep over that though. Both those guys are out of options so keeping them on the roster suggests the Tribe is ready to give them ML jobs next year.


Jackson had been a SP but used in the pen. Perez was a starter in 2007 with Buffalo before moving to the pen. yeah, had a bit of experience in the pen in 2006 but not a whole heck of a lot. David Price was a starter but brought in to relieve. Same with Andrew Miller of the tigers and then Joba Chamberlain with the Yankees.

Lots of young guys move to the bullpen at the ML level while being starters at the minor league level. It's much easier to pitch in the pen, especially if you're only the 6th or 7th option out there.

Pitchers without control get bombed as starters in the majors.....they can hide that some in the pen though.


Again, I don't see us taking anyone either, but was getting tired of just talking about who we may lose. Plus it makes sense to pursue every venture for improving the club.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby carnegie44115 » Wed Nov 26, 2008 1:58 pm

Yea but Wedge can't hid pitchers in the bullpen, Breslow is this same type of a situation, where you take a chance on a guy and see if you can try to develop him, Wedge just can't handle that.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Nov 26, 2008 2:01 pm

carnegie44115 wrote:Yeah I don't think the Indians will draft anyone either, if I had to say someone for them to draft, I'd say Alan Horne. He did not pitch much this year, so not sure of his status, a TJ surgery patient already once, but he did pitch well at Trenton in 2007. Once again not something I think they should or would do, but just throwing it out there.


That would be kinda ironic since we originally drafted Horne back in 2001 in the 1st round of the June draft.....
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby carnegie44115 » Wed Nov 26, 2008 2:04 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
carnegie44115 wrote:Yeah I don't think the Indians will draft anyone either, if I had to say someone for them to draft, I'd say Alan Horne. He did not pitch much this year, so not sure of his status, a TJ surgery patient already once, but he did pitch well at Trenton in 2007. Once again not something I think they should or would do, but just throwing it out there.


That would be kinda ironic since we originally drafted Horne back in 2001 in the 1st round of the June draft.....



Yeah I saw that and knew someone was going to mention that.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby dazindiansfanuk » Wed Nov 26, 2008 2:54 pm

Horne only has 3 minor league seasons under his belt - I don't think he's Rule 5 eligable - could be wrong.

By the looks of it, there has only been 3 rule 5 drafts since he was drafted, so he surely won't be eligable.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby carnegie44115 » Wed Nov 26, 2008 3:01 pm

dazindiansfanuk wrote:Horne only has 3 minor league seasons under his belt - I don't think he's Rule 5 eligable - could be wrong.

By the looks of it, there has only been 3 rule 5 drafts since he was drafted, so he surely won't be eligable.



He was drafted in 05 from Florida by the Yanks.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby artgold » Wed Nov 26, 2008 3:23 pm

I don't see drafting Veal, his BB/K rate just keeps deteriorating each year as he advances. At this point, I just don't see a major league projection for the guy, besides just bouncing around on the fringe. His BA against and WHIP also significantly deteriorated last season on a start by start basis, likely meaning either the league was catching up to him or he started to aim the ball instead of pitch.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Nov 26, 2008 3:48 pm

Could also mean that he's not the type of pitcher that can go multiple innings.....

Not saying he'll ever be a good major leaguer, but his stuff is as good as any in our system (including Miller) and could make an impact in the pen.

I don't see drafting him either though, or anyone.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Nov 26, 2008 4:04 pm

Another guy that could be of interest to the Indians is Eduardo Morlan of the Rays. He's a right-handed reliever that can dial it up to the mid-90s. Was part of the Young-Garza trade last winter. Also has a high-80s slider that's his strikout pitch (he's a lot like Miller in that regards). Numbers were a bit down but allowed 44 hits in 47 innings with rates of 2.87 BB/9 and 8.62 K/9.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby npc29 » Wed Nov 26, 2008 7:41 pm

Honestly.. We are in no position to be fussing with Rule V players. Especially relief pitchers.

Maybe if there were a third baseman out there worth a look in Spring Training. But are the Indians really in a position to blow a roster spot and 25,000 just on the risk of "seeing" if it works out?
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby MadThinker88 » Thu Nov 27, 2008 12:33 am

Spotted this article on another site and thought I should share. It focuses on the pitchers and another article next week will focus on the hitters.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/20 ... rule_5.php
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby dnosco » Thu Nov 27, 2008 1:20 pm

By their roster decisions the Indians have already said that they don't want to risk putting a prospect on the roster if it means taking one of the current roster guys off.

I have no faith in their talent analysis and comparisons that the Indians do (Barton vs Snyder, for example). That being said, why would the Indians draft someone else's problems if they won't even roster their own (Lofgren and, to some extent, Brown). I do, however, believe in their philosophy that taking guys off the roster is more risky than taking the risk to lose them in the Rule 5, IF YOU BELIEVE THE GUYS ARE CLOSE IN TALENT. It is the capitalized text that is the issue, as the Barton/Snyder example shows. So, let's assume that maybe Zach Jackson is toast if we add a guy. If that is a given then we have to ask ourselves if Toregas, Mujica, Rundles, Marte and even Dellucci still deserve roster spots. I don't think they do and the order I would get rid of them would be Dellucci, Marte, Toregas, Rundles and Mujica, as I think Mujica may actually have turned the corner and gotten back to being as dominant as he was earlier.

While I would love to draft Horne and a couple of the other pitchers on the list, the Indians won't do it. It is just not how they operate. If it was me and the guys were still available I would draft 5 of those pitchers. Hey, if one sticks and the others are returned it costs you $150,000 or the equivalent of baseball chump change. It also gives you a chance to trade for the other 4 if they are not picked up on waivers. Given that our farm system has obvious excesses and holes AND that most GMs cannot possibly spend the time talking trade on low minors' players exclusively, this draft could be the catalyst to have trade talks on specific players who you would have already evaluated for an entire spring training, in person, not just in scouting reports.

I have said it for years. The Rule 5 draft is underutilized. At worst it is the loss of chump change. At best, it is a way to get talent in that is potential star caliber (see Josh Hamilton).

If you don't play the game you can't win. The Indians choose not to play the game and to allow the game to play them. See how well it has worked for them so far (Luna, Taveras, Barton, etc.). Talent going out, none coming in. Players kept instead of the guys lost who never amount to anything. Never a good thing.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby dazindiansfanuk » Thu Nov 27, 2008 1:47 pm

carnegie44115 wrote:
dazindiansfanuk wrote:Horne only has 3 minor league seasons under his belt - I don't think he's Rule 5 eligable - could be wrong.

By the looks of it, there has only been 3 rule 5 drafts since he was drafted, so he surely won't be eligable.



He was drafted in 05 from Florida by the Yanks.


Yeah, drafted in June 05.

Rule 5 drafts since then: -

Dec 2005
Dec 2006
Dec 2007

So, 3 drafts have passed since he was drafted. This years draft (Dec 08) will mark the 4th Rule 5 draft since he was taken in the June draft and therefore Horne isn't eligable, but will be next year.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby carnegie44115 » Thu Nov 27, 2008 1:54 pm

dazindiansfanuk wrote:
carnegie44115 wrote:
dazindiansfanuk wrote:Horne only has 3 minor league seasons under his belt - I don't think he's Rule 5 eligable - could be wrong.

By the looks of it, there has only been 3 rule 5 drafts since he was drafted, so he surely won't be eligable.



He was drafted in 05 from Florida by the Yanks.


Yeah, drafted in June 05.

Rule 5 drafts since then: -

Dec 2005
Dec 2006
Dec 2007

So, 3 drafts have passed since he was drafted. This years draft (Dec 08) will mark the 4th Rule 5 draft since he was taken in the June draft and therefore Horne isn't eligable, but will be next year.


So whats the difference between him and Brown, were they not in the same draft?


Edit: Actually just looking at Tony's Rule 5 FAQ, and when its the 4th draft for a guy 19 or older is when they are eligible.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby TonyIBI » Thu Nov 27, 2008 10:59 pm

If Horne was drafted in 2005, he is indeed eligible.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Nov 28, 2008 10:26 am

MadThinker88 wrote:Spotted this article on another site and thought I should share. It focuses on the pitchers and another article next week will focus on the hitters.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/20 ... rule_5.php


Yeah that's where I got the veal and the morlan info. Good stuff.


Wasn't Luna cut from the 40-man roster during the season and not taken in the rule 5 draft?



And Horne is eligible. He's being tabbed as one of the top guys to go in the draft (along with Brown and Veal)....
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby jellis » Fri Nov 28, 2008 2:18 pm

Horne is eligible BA confirmed it.

Luna was taken in that draft but not sure if they ever tried to return him
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby dazindiansfanuk » Fri Nov 28, 2008 2:32 pm

Well I stand corrected on Horne.

He's definately a guy worth taking a flier on, but I'm just not getting the impression the Indians will select anyone.

If I'm a team like the Padres, I'd be looking at Horne early in the draft to battle for a spot in a re-building rotation in 2009.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Nov 28, 2008 3:42 pm

ha, I was thinking about the last time we lost Luna, forgot we lost him the Rule 5 originally to the Cardinals.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby MadThinker88 » Sat Dec 06, 2008 3:23 pm

Just to be complete: here is the article on the hitters

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/20 ... _draft.php
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby dnosco » Sat Dec 06, 2008 3:57 pm

We know the Indians won't take anyone but if they did I think it should be Jordan Brown. That being said, I would love to have Corey Wimberly and have been a huge fan of his even back to his college days when he was an unknown who I was really solid on being a good pro player. The guy can be a backup IF/OF and he is just a great basestealer and bunter. Would make a great #2 hitter if he could play 2B, something that his could aspire to be league average at. If ML pitchers don't just knock the bat out of his hands (he has no power) he could turn into something special...or into Jason Tyner.

Agree about Horne but I think he will be gone at 15.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby indianinkslinger » Sun Dec 07, 2008 1:32 pm

dnosco wrote:We know the Indians won't take anyone but if they did I think it should be Jordan Brown. That being said, I would love to have Corey Wimberly and have been a huge fan of his even back to his college days when he was an unknown who I was really solid on being a good pro player. The guy can be a backup IF/OF and he is just a great basestealer and bunter. Would make a great #2 hitter if he could play 2B, something that his could aspire to be league average at. If ML pitchers don't just knock the bat out of his hands (he has no power) he could turn into something special...or into Jason Tyner.

Agree about Horne but I think he will be gone at 15.


Not sure I share your enthusiasm for Wimberly, Dennis. He has great speed but his other tools leave a lot to be desired. He is 25 and doesn't have a lot of projection that I can see. Hard to see him having a place when a younger better version is already at AAA courtesy of CC.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby artgold » Sun Dec 07, 2008 8:30 pm

dnosco wrote:We know the Indians won't take anyone but if they did I think it should be Jordan Brown. That being said, I would love to have Corey Wimberly and have been a huge fan of his even back to his college days when he was an unknown who I was really solid on being a good pro player. The guy can be a backup IF/OF and he is just a great basestealer and bunter. Would make a great #2 hitter if he could play 2B, something that his could aspire to be league average at. If ML pitchers don't just knock the bat out of his hands (he has no power) he could turn into something special...or into Jason Tyner.

Agree about Horne but I think he will be gone at 15.


I don't see them going after Wimberly, Dennis. On the plus side, he has remarkable speed and improved his BB/K rate significantly over the previous season. On the negative side, he has very little power and his throwing is still a bit of a problem (look at his assist/error ratio at 2nd base over the past three seasons, and then the ratios when playing SS and 3rd this season). Finally, consider his age at AA, and the fact that he repeated the level, and I don't see a player worth a roster spot.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Dec 08, 2008 11:20 am

I'd look at taking Wimberly but only if we've traded Carroll. A team like the Phillies could really use Carroll (with the uncertainty of Utley going into next season). We'd save over $2M, and could use Wimberley as the main utility infielder. Hurts us in that regard....but the extra $2M could help us land a better starting 3B/2B and/or starting pitcher.....

By selling Mastny to a Japanese team and opening another roster spot.....makes me think we may actually be targeting someone in the draft....but we'll see soon enough.....
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby jellis » Mon Dec 08, 2008 4:32 pm

I am not sure if we target anyone going to be hard enough to figure out our 25 man roster, I think mastny was mvoed for other reasons. I dont think the phil's would care for a carroll, they got Donald internally who hit over 400 in the AFL and who they are going to want up by early july to help max out his trade value
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Dec 08, 2008 4:48 pm

I was just throwing that idea out there. I'd think the Phils would either trade Donald or leave him in the minors where he'd play everyday (but maybe they wouldn't). There'd be other teams interested in Carroll as well. The D'backs could look at him as a starter even (they're looking at Loretta now, but are rumored to still be looking).

I still like Veal's arm. As a lefty in the pen I think he'd be great. I agree....not likely to get anyone still.....but still raises some eyebrows.....
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby jellis » Mon Dec 08, 2008 4:51 pm

I just think the roster is a bit stuck right now and there is far from huge talents in the draft. I think with Utley out they expect to use donald next year then move him at the deadline for help to get pitching since it now looks like Moyer may not come back
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Dec 08, 2008 5:24 pm

eh, only 4 guys in the pen are set (Lewis, Perez, Betancourt, and Kobayashi). We'll get a closer...that'll be 5.

Jackson and Mujica are out of options.....so they'd be the last 2 you'd assume. But I'd risk $25K on giving another person a shot in ST. Meloan will be there too. I don't see Miller making it out of camp, but he could I suppose. Could think of it this way....we had to have gotten at least $25K for Mastny....so not really much of risk if you ask me......


Do agree there doesn't appear to be much in the way of talent.....but some interesting prospects in there...
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby Duane Kuiper » Mon Dec 08, 2008 6:17 pm

IMO, Miller will be on the 25 man roster, if he is healthy, out of ST.

Mujica will be gone.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby indianinkslinger » Mon Dec 08, 2008 11:49 pm

Hermie13 wrote:I'd look at taking Wimberly but only if we've traded Carroll. A team like the Phillies could really use Carroll (with the uncertainty of Utley going into next season). We'd save over $2M, and could use Wimberley as the main utility infielder. Hurts us in that regard....but the extra $2M could help us land a better starting 3B/2B and/or starting pitcher.....

By selling Mastny to a Japanese team and opening another roster spot.....makes me think we may actually be targeting someone in the draft....but we'll see soon enough.....


You could well be right about this but I think the more likely scenario has the tribe trading propects not on the 40 for a player, or players, who would have to be placed on the 40. Now that brings up some names on a trading list that I happen to like but that is the way of baseball. I have a real difficult time seeing any rule 5 eligible being any help to the Indians next year. It sounds like there are posters amoung us who think that Wimberly would be better than Barfield in the majors next year. Not a JBarf fan but I don't see it.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Dec 09, 2008 10:04 am

I don't think he'd be better than Barfield...but his versatility plays out better as a backup than Barfield who can only play one position.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Dec 09, 2008 10:07 am

Duane Kuiper wrote:IMO, Miller will be on the 25 man roster, if he is healthy, out of ST.

Mujica will be gone.


eh, I'm not sold....but you could very well be right. Miller had an absolutely dynamite ST in 2007 (went 14 innings without allowing a run), yet still returned to AAA. Tribe also has a knack for using players that 'need' to be kept on the roster (Jason Davis and Fernando Cabrera in 2007 for example). Eventually we'll see Miller....but out of camp I don't see it.....but anything is possible....
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby Duane Kuiper » Tue Dec 09, 2008 12:37 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
Duane Kuiper wrote:IMO, Miller will be on the 25 man roster, if he is healthy, out of ST.

Mujica will be gone.


eh, I'm not sold....but you could very well be right. Miller had an absolutely dynamite ST in 2007 (went 14 innings without allowing a run), yet still returned to AAA. Tribe also has a knack for using players that 'need' to be kept on the roster (Jason Davis and Fernando Cabrera in 2007 for example). Eventually we'll see Miller....but out of camp I don't see it.....but anything is possible....

They sent Miller to the minors in 2007 becasue he hadn't pitched more than one game in AAA. They weren't going to put him on the 25 man roster out of ST without him having some AAA games.

Their plan probably was to bring him up sometime in 08 but injuries stopped that.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Dec 09, 2008 12:48 pm

Indians started Sabathia in the rotaiton in 2001 with ZERO games at AAA. Difference was Wedge wasn't the manager back then.

I hope I'm wrong and miller does have a great spring and makes the club out of camp.....but I'm not counting on it....
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby indianinkslinger » Tue Dec 09, 2008 4:29 pm

Hermie13 wrote:Indians started Sabathia in the rotaiton in 2001 with ZERO games at AAA. Difference was Wedge wasn't the manager back then.

I hope I'm wrong and miller does have a great spring and makes the club out of camp.....but I'm not counting on it....


Wedge wasn't the only thing that was different! This appears to be apples and oranges. If the Wood signing is true, I think it makes sense to be cautious with Miller. That being said, I think they hope to get some ML experience out of Miller in 2009. Whether it comes on opening day or shortly thereafter is the real question.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby jellis » Tue Dec 09, 2008 4:35 pm

wood is only visiting no word on a signing and I think the indians will wait it out. LAA,MIL, and CLE are the teams in hunt for CL's

with K -rod only getting 3 years 37 mil I think Fuentes cost will be way down now
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby indianinkslinger » Tue Dec 09, 2008 9:23 pm

jellis wrote:wood is only visiting no word on a signing and I think the indians will wait it out. LAA,MIL, and CLE are the teams in hunt for CL's

with K -rod only getting 3 years 37 mil I think Fuentes cost will be way down now


Not sure your evaluation of the situation is relevant. Wood's visit is for a phyical according to many sources.
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Re: Possible Rule 5 targets?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Dec 10, 2008 10:35 am

indianinkslinger wrote:Wedge wasn't the only thing that was different! This appears to be apples and oranges. If the Wood signing is true, I think it makes sense to be cautious with Miller. That being said, I think they hope to get some ML experience out of Miller in 2009. Whether it comes on opening day or shortly thereafter is the real question.


ha, no you're right...wasn't the only thing that was different, but it was the main difference.


Unless injured, Miller will make his ML debut in 2009....but not likely on opening day even if the Wood signing doesn't happen.
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