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Rule 5 Draft

Talk shop about the various prospects and teams that make up the Cleveland Indians organization.

Rule 5 Draft

Postby antonchigurh28 » Fri Nov 21, 2008 5:08 pm

I know this may require a inordinate amount of research but I was wondering if you could compile a top-50 list of players available in the Rule 5 draft. It seems like the Indians are always losing quality players via Rule 5, but they never pick up any diamonds in the rough. Perhaps there are some players worthy of a look that could help this team, specifically out of the bullpen. Obviously, Jordan Brown, Steven Head, and Lofgren will pique the interest of opposing general managers, but there must be some players out there that we could go after. Thanks for your time and attention.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby TonyIBI » Fri Nov 21, 2008 5:15 pm

Unfortunately, the Rule 5 eligibles for other teams are not publicly available yet and I am not about to contact every team for their eligibles list. I'd likely be considered a nuissance anyway. MLB will release the complete Rule 5 eligible list that they send to all the clubs and some media outlets (BA) about a week to ten days before the draft. I'll see if there is a way I can get a copy of that, but I'm but a peon compared to the likes of BA so my chances of getting it are slim. We'll see though!
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby dazindiansfanuk » Fri Nov 21, 2008 5:19 pm

BAs Rule 5 preview is posting some time next week at which time they'll no doubt go through some of the notable guys left off rosters.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby petes999 » Fri Nov 21, 2008 5:20 pm

There are some people working on an informal list ....

See http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/11/ ... le-5-draft

Not a great list. And realize, that by the time we select, most of the good prospects will be already gone.

I don't think there will be anyone we will be interested in except if there is a good 2b/3b man. Why clog our system with more relievers when Wedgie will be hard press to get Stevens, Meloan, Miller and Sipp a chance.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby TonyIBI » Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:06 pm

From BA:

Pitchers are the most popular position among non-Rockies possibilities. The easy jokes to make in the lobby involve guesses on which Brewers will be selected by new Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik (formerly Milwaukee’s scouting director), and similarly what Indians farmhand will go to Pittsburgh, as Pirates GM Neal Huntington was once the Indians’ farm director.

Speculation with Pittsburgh has settled on righthander J.D. Martin (a six-year free agent who signed with the Nationals this offseason) and lefthander Chuck Lofgren. Martin, 25, had a healthy season for the first time since 2004, working primarily in relief at Double-A Akron but getting nine starts for the Aeros and Triple-A Buffalo. Martin fits better in relief for most scouts as a long man who combats the running game, gets groundouts with a high-80s sinker that peaks at 91 and commands an array of five pitches, including a split-finger and slider.

Lofgren, 22, started the Futures Game in 2007 in San Francisco and hasn’t had much luck since then. He lost a rotation spot at Akron this season, posting a 5.99 ERA as he lost his fastball command and velocity, then had a nightmarish performance in the Arizona Fall League. One scout who saw him there said he wouldn’t have gotten high school hitters out with his performance, which included a 32.14 ERA and 18 walks in seven innings. He gave up 40 runs, just 25 earned, and 19 hits while getting just 21 outs.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby npc29 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:20 pm

First round just got finished and Jordan Brown survived..
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby TonyIBI » Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:24 pm

I can't get into BA. No Indians yet?
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby npc29 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:25 pm

No Indians yet.. I'm watching on MLB.com
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby carnegie44115 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:26 pm

Yeah Brown was left un-drafted, theyre in the minor league phase right now.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby carnegie44115 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:28 pm

And we just passed in the minor league phase, expected? I don't know a whole lot about the particulars in the minor phase.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby TonyIBI » Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:29 pm

No Indians at all in the major league phase, right?
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby npc29 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:30 pm

Nope.. None so far in the Triple-A phase either.. Minnesota just picked
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby npc29 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:32 pm

Pittsburgh just took Rafael Quintero from Akron?
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby carnegie44115 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:33 pm

Yeah who in the world is that?
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby carnegie44115 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:34 pm

Quintero,

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=32587

Played the last two yrs in the DSL
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby carnegie44115 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:38 pm

Carlos Arias was selected
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby npc29 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:39 pm

If these guys aren't on the Akron roster why are they announced as if they are?
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:44 pm

Wonder if Pedromo will stick with San Francisco? Still don't totally understand why the Cards gave us Reyes for him....but not complaining. I know he had issues there, but still.....
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby npc29 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:46 pm

so Rafael Quintero and Carlos Arias.. No picks for the Indians.

We come out pretty good then?
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby TonyIBI » Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:54 pm

npc29 wrote:so Rafael Quintero and Carlos Arias.. No picks for the Indians.

We come out pretty good then?


Yep. Both are way down the pecking order....and in all honesty I know very little about them since they have limited if any time stateside.

The Indians lost no one as expected. I am sure some of you (MadThinker) can breathe now.;-)

By the way, those dumb Cardinals. How could they possibly NOT roster Perdomo? Idiots. Tools. If only they had roster management skills like the Indians. :s_smile
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby TonyIBI » Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:55 pm

By the way, anyone else have trouble getting into BA?
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby webba2000 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:58 pm

npc29 wrote:so Rafael Quintero and Carlos Arias.. No picks for the Indians.

We come out pretty good then?


I would say VERY good!

About Perdomo:
I agree. Bad move by the Cards.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby webba2000 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 2:02 pm

Consigliere wrote:By the way, anyone else have trouble getting into BA?

Work fine with me....but I am in Italy... :s_yes :s_yes
Last edited by webba2000 on Thu Dec 11, 2008 2:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 2:02 pm

Consigliere wrote:By the way, anyone else have trouble getting into BA?


Yeah, I couldn't get in either.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby petes999 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 2:10 pm

I was worried that some players could be taken this year, mainly Lofgren, Head and Brown .... hopefully Lofgren can now relax in spring training and get his act together.

Yet, with how deep our system is supposedly (deep versus star talent), how much does this say that our estimates of having a good system may not be accurate if no one else wanted anyone?

Or, is it that we protected the main value -- AA relievers (St. Louis slipped up on this)?

Maybe Dennis can weigh in ....
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby TonyIBI » Thu Dec 11, 2008 2:43 pm

petes999 wrote:I was worried that some players could be taken this year, mainly Lofgren, Head and Brown .... hopefully Lofgren can now relax in spring training and get his act together.

Yet, with how deep our system is supposedly (deep versus star talent), how much does this say that our estimates of having a good system may not be accurate if no one else wanted anyone?

Or, is it that we protected the main value -- AA relievers (St. Louis slipped up on this)?

Maybe Dennis can weigh in ....


I sort of weighed in on this this morning on the homepage:

http://www.indiansprospectinsider.com/2 ... ughts.html

As far as my comment from one person who said the Indians would be the “last team they would look at for players”, this in no way is indicative of a lack of talent the Indians Rule 5 eligible players have. This really is about how well they play at the major league level and if they are a suitable fit for a team. Contrary to what many may believe, teams strongly consider if the player can play and handle playing in the major leagues when taken in the Rule 5 Draft. They do not draft a player with the idea to stash a guy on the roster as he has to be a potentially useable piece when he is drafted. The one exception to this rule is if there is a high impact level hitter or pitcher who is exposed that a team may want to stash away. The Indians have no such player available. They have some good players available, but no one who is projected to someday be a FOR starter, backend bully guy, or middle of the order bat.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby artgold » Thu Dec 11, 2008 2:48 pm

Wonder how Brown will react now that the entire league has passed on him. Got to be a major ego blow.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby carnegie44115 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 2:50 pm

artgold wrote:Wonder how Brown will react now that the entire league has passed on him. Got to be a major ego blow.


I would think it wouldn't be, from the Interview a couple weeks ago, he wasn't happy with not being rostered but it surely sounded like he didn't want to leave the Indians organization either, so I think he is breathing a sigh of relief right now.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby Jake Taylor » Thu Dec 11, 2008 2:55 pm

Now Brown can continue to have fun with his former Wild Cat teammates in AAA... both who should be first in line for Major League promotions.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby carnegie44115 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 2:58 pm

Jake Taylor wrote:Now Brown can continue to have fun with his former Wild Cat teammates in AAA... both who should be first in line for Major League promotions.



All three if Meloan is figured to be the first guy out of the pen.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby Jake Taylor » Thu Dec 11, 2008 3:00 pm

I actually meant Meloan and Crowe should be first in line for promotions... but I guess we could say all three.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby MadThinker88 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 11:35 pm

artgold wrote:Wonder how Brown will react now that the entire league has passed on him. Got to be a major ego blow.


After his interview on SmokeSignals, I wanted this guy to be the Tribe's 1B in 2009. He will take this 'slight' by the rest of the league and turn it into a fuel that we would wish others could tap into and utilize. I really believe that if he stays healthy, this guy will bash the ball to the point that the Tribe will have to give him a shot up in Cleveland.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby artgold » Thu Dec 11, 2008 11:54 pm

MadThinker88 wrote:
artgold wrote:Wonder how Brown will react now that the entire league has passed on him. Got to be a major ego blow.


After his interview on SmokeSignals, I wanted this guy to be the Tribe's 1B in 2009. He will take this 'slight' by the rest of the league and turn it into a fuel that we would wish others could tap into and utilize. I really believe that if he stays healthy, this guy will bash the ball to the point that the Tribe will have to give him a shot up in Cleveland.


Yeah, it would be nice if he was "constructively pissed off".
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby jellis » Fri Dec 12, 2008 12:16 am

artgold wrote:
Yeah, it would be nice if he was "constructively pissed off".


I like that made me laugh
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby indianinkslinger » Fri Dec 12, 2008 6:21 pm

It will be very interesting to see how Shapiro and Wedge handle the OF/1B. I believe there is still one more major trade in the Indians offseason. I really do not expect it to be happening quickly. But, if you look at the roster as it is now, I think LaPorta would be most likely to be promoted from Columbus. After him, I consider Bradley/Valbuena to be most likely to be considered for midseason callup. I think Crowe gets consideration after these three, only one that is not in direct competition with him. I am not sure he places ahead of Gimenez who is peripherally in competition. I really doubt that the Indians will cut Dellucci to make room for Crowe but they might do that for either LaPorta or Bradley if either looks ready. I just cannot see any of our rule 5 eligibles having any effect on the ML roster this year. It would be nice if we got an unexpected boost but Shapiro has been totally vindicated on his rule 5 management. ML baseball has had it's say. The eligible upper division prospects are closer to organization talent than they are to ML. Big plus for Shapiro over posters. :s_thumbsup
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby artgold » Fri Dec 12, 2008 11:16 pm

indianinkslinger wrote:It will be very interesting to see how Shapiro and Wedge handle the OF/1B. I believe there is still one more major trade in the Indians offseason. I really do not expect it to be happening quickly. But, if you look at the roster as it is now, I think LaPorta would be most likely to be promoted from Columbus. After him, I consider Bradley/Valbuena to be most likely to be considered for midseason callup. I think Crowe gets consideration after these three, only one that is not in direct competition with him. I am not sure he places ahead of Gimenez who is peripherally in competition. I really doubt that the Indians will cut Dellucci to make room for Crowe but they might do that for either LaPorta or Bradley if either looks ready. I just cannot see any of our rule 5 eligibles having any effect on the ML roster this year. It would be nice if we got an unexpected boost but Shapiro has been totally vindicated on his rule 5 management. ML baseball has had it's say. The eligible upper division prospects are closer to organization talent than they are to ML. Big plus for Shapiro over posters. :s_thumbsup


Although I'm getting a bit old I'm still usually pretty current on the roster moves, but you got me on this one.

Who is Bradley?
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby cardiackidz » Sat Dec 13, 2008 12:04 am

art just made a mistake, i think he meant brantley.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby indianinkslinger » Sat Dec 13, 2008 6:07 am

cardiackidz wrote:art just made a mistake, i think he meant brantley.


Art didn't make the mistake, I did. Had a momentary braincramp while typing. Art will understand. He is my age. :s_wacko
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby dnosco » Sat Dec 13, 2008 10:49 am

I have to disagree with the notion that our guys are organizational players. Jordan Brown has one bad year and he is closer to an organizational player? Look at Valbuena who had a career year and he suddenly became a pretty good prospect. Jordan Brown has the pedigree with two league MVPs at higher levels of the minors that tells me that he can still be a ML starter like Lyle Overbay.

I think it is as I and Tony have said: we were fortunate that this year our players did not match up with the standard player who is targeted in the Rule 5. I won't go into details but that has not been true in previous years when we lost guys.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby jellis » Sat Dec 13, 2008 12:10 pm

dnosco wrote:I have to disagree with the notion that our guys are organizational players. Jordan Brown has one bad year and he is closer to an organizational player? Look at Valbuena who had a career year and he suddenly became a pretty good prospect. Jordan Brown has the pedigree with two league MVPs at higher levels of the minors that tells me that he can still be a ML starter like Lyle Overbay.

I think it is as I and Tony have said: we were fortunate that this year our players did not match up with the standard player who is targeted in the Rule 5. I won't go into details but that has not been true in previous years when we lost guys.



So wrong on valbuena, he has been on the prsopect radar for awhile, in 2005 he was the number6th spec in all the NYY pen league.

To me he would be a higher spec if he hadnt had the one bad year, last year he was amazingly good, but he has had 2 other pretty good years and one very bad one
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby dnosco » Sat Dec 13, 2008 2:45 pm

2009 Prospect Handbook - 11th ranked Seattle prospect before the trade
2008 Prospect Handbook - Not listed in top 30 for Seattle - first second baseman listed in remaining guys (Seattle 11th best farm system)
2007 Prospect Handbook - 20th best Seattle prospect (Seattle 24th out of 30 teams)
2006 Prospect Handbook - 14th best Seattle prospect (Seattle 27th out 30 teams in strength of farm system)
2005 Prospect Handbook - Not listed in top 30 - 2nd listed unranked secondbaseman

As comparables using the Indians:

2008 - Jared Goedert first secondbaseman listed not in top 30 (Cleveland 19th best farm system)
2007 - Wyatt Toregas was our 20th best prospect (10th ranked farm system)
2006 - Tony Sipp was our 14th ranked prospect (11th ranked farm system)
2005 - Joe Inglett 2nd listed second baseman who isn't ranked (7th ranked farm system)

Factoring in the strength of the farm systems I would say Valbuena, overall, is about as good a prospect as Wyatt Toregas or Jared Goedert...basically a throw-in on this deal...UNLESS you overweigh his 2008. Even with previous good years he has never been a top 10 prospect for even the weak Mariners' system.

Hey, he might turn out great but to say that he would have been higher in 2009 if not for a poor 2007 totally neglects that he was never even highly rated even when he had good years.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby TheWord » Sat Dec 13, 2008 2:58 pm

He's 3 years younger than Toregas and 1 year younger than Goedert, and was able to hit above .300 at a league higher than AA which is something neither of these prospects can say, factor in that many 2B are NEVER highly rated in any prospect system and you have your answer.

Comparing these prospects by their rank in a system is...foolish.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby indianinkslinger » Sat Dec 13, 2008 3:43 pm

Hey guys, Dennis has some valid points. The fact that he is using BA as a bible has always been one of my issues but the fine line he cuts is important to him. I have a totally different view. Those of you who really want to understand why I look at these things so differently than Dennis should read an outstanding article on scouting currently on BA that is premium content or I would post it. While it is simplistic in many respects, it hits the heart of the issue of the scouting versus sabermetric approach to player evaluation. I disagree with Dennis' evaluation of organizational talent because I do not give a shit what BA says. I trust my eyes and evaluation techniques that I learned years ago. I am not saying that Jordan Brown cannot become a more valuable player which is how Dennis interpreted what I posted. I think he has the ceiling to improve. I just do not think he has the ceiling that many other 1B options in the Indians' organization have and that what makes an organizational player. I think the Indians feel much the same. Dennis disagrees. Not a big deal! He thinks Barton was a huge mistake. I yawn. Why worry about about a prospect when you have many better options in terms of ceiling? He thinks BA is a valuable tool in player evaluation. I don't. Dennis takes my criticisms of his logic seriously and that is OK. But anyone who thinks that Dennis has not done his homework to arrive at his conclusions is way off base. Dennis just does not like to admit it when he is wrong but I think most of us share that to a certain extent.

For a person who has crossed the line and handles both points of view, read Tony Lastoria. He's the best!
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby TonyIBI » Sat Dec 13, 2008 4:08 pm

TheWord wrote:He's 3 years younger than Toregas and 1 year younger than Goedert, and was able to hit above .300 at a league higher than AA which is something neither of these prospects can say, factor in that many 2B are NEVER highly rated in any prospect system and you have your answer.

Comparing these prospects by their rank in a system is...foolish.


Agreed.

He's well above Goedert and Toregas.

In addition to people with the Indians and Mariners, I just talked to some scouts from three different orgs about him. They like him a lot and think he has a good ceiling to without a doubt be at worst an average major league 2B.

I just finished my scouting report on him for the book too, and as a teaser may post it next week.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby dnosco » Sat Dec 13, 2008 4:44 pm

TheWord wrote:He's 3 years younger than Toregas and 1 year younger than Goedert, and was able to hit above .300 at a league higher than AA which is something neither of these prospects can say, factor in that many 2B are NEVER highly rated in any prospect system and you have your answer.

Comparing these prospects by their rank in a system is...foolish.


If what you say has real meaning then a guy who is this young and has performed this well should be better than the 11th ranked prospect in a mediocre farm system, don't you think?

Of course, prospect ratings don't have to mean anything if you don't work to serve your point. So, obviously BA must be wrong and this guy has to be a top 5 prospect in Seattle's system just based on his age/results combo, right? Then why did he not even crack the top 10?

BTW, about second baseman never being highly ranked that's just you blowing smoke. Look at last year's BA to show just how wrong you are:

ARI - Bonaficio - #6
CHI - Thomas - #9
CHIW - Getz #8
DET - Sizemore #3
FLA - Coghlan #7
LAA - Rodriguez #7
PHI - Cardenas #2
PITT - Ford #6, Bixler #8
SD - Antonelli #2
SF - Noonan #6, Velez #7
SEA - Trufenel #4
TOR - Tolisano #8

40% of big league teams had a second baseman ranked in the top 10 - a lot more than "NEVER" I would think.

Plus another 10 second basemen were rated in the top 16 of their team's top 30. Meaning that 2/3 had a second baseman highly or relatively highly ranked.

Again, believe what you want, but at least make up good reasons and not ones that so easily can have holes punched in them.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby dnosco » Sat Dec 13, 2008 4:47 pm

Consigliere wrote:
TheWord wrote:He's 3 years younger than Toregas and 1 year younger than Goedert, and was able to hit above .300 at a league higher than AA which is something neither of these prospects can say, factor in that many 2B are NEVER highly rated in any prospect system and you have your answer.

Comparing these prospects by their rank in a system is...foolish.


Agreed.

He's well above Goedert and Toregas.

In addition to people with the Indians and Mariners, I just talked to some scouts from three different orgs about him. They like him a lot and think he has a good ceiling to without a doubt be at worst an average major league 2B.

I just finished my scouting report on him for the book too, and as a teaser may post it next week.


Tony,

So these scouts say Hodges is not going to be a good major leaguer because his defense won't play and his offense won't play at 1B and Valbuena is going to be an average secondbaseman at worst. Thus Valbuena is a better prospect than Hodges, right?

I only ask this because it would be informative to have a frame of reference about what these scouts are actually saying. What percentage of guys do they say good things about that can be used to defend their talent and what percentage do they hose. Without that frame of reference what does it all mean?

So we know he is a very good bet to be an above major league average starter at 2B and yet he has never broken the Seattle top 10 and wouldn't have done so this year even though BA obviously doesn't undervalue secondbasemen as much as some would think. How can all these things be true?
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby dazindiansfanuk » Sat Dec 13, 2008 4:56 pm

BA's individual team top 10's aren't very reliable Denny.... they can rely too much on personal preference. :s_tongue :s_rofl
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby MadThinker88 » Sat Dec 13, 2008 8:28 pm

dnosco wrote:Tony,

So these scouts say Hodges is not going to be a good major leaguer because his defense won't play and his offense won't play at 1B and Valbuena is going to be an average secondbaseman at worst. Thus Valbuena is a better prospect than Hodges, right?


I would suggest that logic would only hold true if Tony spoke to the same 3 scouts in both cases. With the network of people that Tony has put together, I would be surprised if this is the case.

More than likely, Tony sent out a text/ put out a call to 'his' guys and he is relaying the answers of those that have gotten back to him.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby jhonny » Sun Dec 14, 2008 1:02 pm

His minor league career reminds me of a poor man's (or perhaps a second baseman's) Jhonny Peralta. Players with a terrible year are always systematically undervalued, sometimes for good reason, sometimes not.

I hope he's as successful as Jhonny has been.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft

Postby TonyIBI » Mon Dec 15, 2008 2:12 am

MadThinker88 wrote:More than likely, Tony sent out a text/ put out a call to 'his' guys and he is relaying the answers of those that have gotten back to him.


That about answers it. I ask, they reply, I forward to you guys. I'm simply the messenger.

The thing with Valbuena is he impressed a lot of people with the way he shored up his approach at the plate to draw more walks and strikeout less but at the same time kept up with all his other numbers and actually improved there as well. The most impressive thing is how he has dedicated himself to improving on defense. He has gone from a fringe average defender a season or two ago to now an above average guy on defense at 2B.

By the way, I did not ask these other scouts about Hodges, but one of them I have talked about him just last week and he says should stay at 3B and he believes he will be an average 3B there.
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