Trade analysis: Breaking down the Choo, Bauer trade

Proposed Trade:

If I am a member of any of these teams, I am thrilled, but I’ll focus on the Tribe’s gives and gets:

Quick Summary: The Indians add a likely front of the rotation starting pitching prospect and address the team’s most glaring weakness while shuffling the outfield and adding some usable relievers. The give up is one season of a 4-win outfielder, a replacement level reliever, replacement infielder and a once-shiny first base prospect. The long-term verdict is a huge win as long as Bauer and Stubbs remain in the Major Leagues and serve as a #4 starter or better and defense-first center fielder, respectively. Short term, the Indians potentially give up a win in 2013, but could come out ahead this year if Bauer makes a successful transition and Stubbs returns to his 2009-2011 form.

Tribe Acquires

Trevor Bauer (6-1, 185, R/R, 22yrs [in Jan]) is a well-known prospect due to his high draft selection in the 2011 Rule 4 draft and his unorthodox training regimen. He works with an explosive fastball that sits in the 92-94 area and can ramp up when needed. His #1 off-speed is a curveball in the 78-80 range and he also has a solid slider that works in the mid-80s and change-up in the low-80s. He was rated an A prospect by John Sickels over at Minor League Ball, and #9 overall by Baseball America prior to the 2012 season. Bauer dominated AA by striking out 29% of batters and posting a shiny 1.85 ERA and ‘regressed’ in AAA by allowing a 2.85 ERA while striking out only 28% of batters. He made four starts for the D-Backs in 2012 and went 1-2 with a 6.06 ERA. His walk-rate more than doubled, but he was the victim of bad-luck on fly-balls (15.4% HR/FB when average is 10-11%) and his LOB% was a miserable 58% when he has always posted nearly 83%. Backing this up, we see he has a .222 batting average against in the Majors which was actually lower than his .237 in AAA. Simply put, he got hit at the wrong times.

In addition to Bauer, the Indians add a right-handed power bat that also allows the Indians to shift Michael Brantley to left field where his glove is a plus and employ Stubbs in center field who is a big plus. For your reference, Stubbs was worth 1.3 wins last season despite hitting an abysmal .213/.277/.333. His previous three seasons saw him hit .251/.324/.406 over 1500 at bats so we can make a pretty good case that his bat just went asleep and isn’t, in fact, dead. As this trade was leaking, Tony threw out a Grady Sizemore-lite comparison for Stubbs and I think that is pretty fair. Sizemore drew more walks and had a better knack for contact than Stubbs probably ever will, but the power and defense are similar.

Matt Albers and Bryan Shaw are capable relievers who both throw from the right side, both have peripherals that suggest ERAs in the mid-to-high 3’s and both should throw between 50-60 innings for the Cleveland Indians in 2012 while making $1.7mil (Albers) and $0.5mil (Shaw). Shaw is arbitration eligible for the first-time following the 2014 season and should make less than $1mil given his lack of saves accumulated.

Tribe Trades Away

The Indians give up their best player over the past five years and, in doing so, lose one of the few players who could be considered an “established talent”. Choo is a virtual lock to go .280/.370/.450 every year and flirt with 20/20 while covering average area in right while possessing a truly plus arm in right field. Choo is eligible for free-agency following the season and showed little interest in resigning with Cleveland. He is represented by Scott Boras and I will let you draw your own conclusions about that.

Jason Donald is a utility infielder that came over in the Cliff Lee trade and never panned out as a super-utility player spelling all three infield spots. He can hit for a decent average, but has no power or patience and is slightly below average at shortstop and second base and doesn’t have nearly the bat to play third base. He is arbitration eligible for the first time following the 2013 season and almost certainly would not have been tendered a contract due to the Indians low-minors infield depth, control of Asdrubal Cabrera, Jason Kipnis, Mike Aviles and Lonnie Chisenhall through 2014 and beyond.

Tony Sipp is being called a “lefty specialist” by pundits, which is misleading because he is horrible against righties and merely average against lefties. Lars Anderson is a lottery ticket of sorts as he is a formerly renowned prospect.  An additional give-up would be the compensatory pick the Indians would have received for offering Choo after the 2013 season and barely getting the offer out of their mouths before he rejected it and seeked a multi-year contract in the open market.

Final Analysis

The Indians absolutely knocked this out of the park. When it was all said and done, the Indians gave up one year of valuable right field major league talent and a compensatory pick (Indians would have offered Choo, he would have declined) plus some spare parts. In return, the Indians received six years of potentially elite starting pitching at a fraction of the open-market cost, drastically improved their outfield defense by shifting Michael Brantley out of center field where he was sub-par and putting him in left field where he is above average and his weak arm is further masked. The cherry on top is that this deal shifts the Indians outfield needs from cent field (where Brantley was always just a stop-gap) to right field where options are more plentiful and an additional big-bat can be added. Beyond opening up right field, this move probably doesn’t make Nick Swisher any more likely to sign with the Indians than he already was. However, it can’t hurt considering that Swisher, and all of the Tribe faithful, have a much more certain, and optimistic view of the next few seasons of baseball in Cleveland.