Free agent fun at the Corner of Carnegie and Ontario

The sun is shining brightly here at Corner of Carnegie and Ontario, as Progressive Field has managed to stay out of the dark shadows shrouding Cleveland Browns Stadium only a mile down the road. The Browns have been busy interviewing Oregon’s Chip Kelly, Arizona’s Ray Horton, former Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt, Penn State coach Bill O’Brien, Syracuse’s Dog Marrone and the CFL’s Montreal Allouettes’ head coach and former Browns’ offensive coordinator Mark Trestman for their head coaching position. The Browns are also rumored to have sent feelers out to Alabama’s Nick Saban, Notre Dame’s Brian Kelly, and another former Browns’ offensive coordinator, Bruce Arians. Today, rumors began circulating that former Browns’ special teams and secondary coach, as well as former Steelers’ head football coach Bill Cowher may be interested in returning to the NFL. Did I mention Jon Gruden yet?  

I only mention the Browns seemingly futile head coaching search because while the Browns are rummaging through the typical Cleveland trash bins looking for a head coach that might make a difference, your Cleveland Indians are busy wrapping up their busiest and most productive offseason since the beginning of time. Okay, that’s hyperbole, but it sure does feel good to actually be filling out the plus side of the ledger during the hot stove league season rather than keeping the books closed altogether. The Indians have single-handedly addressed nearly all of their offseason needs, and managed to do it with more money remaining, and still have the time left to make a move should a player fall into their price range or should a player go down to an unforeseen injury.

Last year, the Indians were seemingly behind the eight-ball from the start, having re-signed Grady Sizemore to a $5 million albatross contract that strapped them for the rest of the offseason. They were caught with their pants down in trying to sign Josh Willingham, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Pena and every other free agent they were chasing after because they failed to offer the right years, and/or the right money. They were then caught with their pants off when Sizemore was clearly going to be out for the foreseeable future in spring training, and didn’t have anyone to replace him except for Aaron “Freakin’” Cunningham.

Cleveland is a tough place for any professional team. Browns’ billionaire owner Jimmy Haslam has the all the money in the world. Browns’ CEO Joe Banner has all the NFL pedigree from building a winner in Philadelphia. Even so, the Browns new management team has found themselves stuck in the typical Cleveland hurricane that has seemingly drowned every professional team in the Forest City over the past twenty years.

In the meantime, the Indians have found themselves in the perfect storm of good fortune. One of the best managers in baseball chose the Indians as his redemption and in doing so, the team has on the field credibility that they haven’t had since 2001. Three short months later, the Francona-led Indians have a ship that seems to be sailing in the right direction. While the Browns are stumbling out of the gate, it feels like the Indians are in a drop-dead sprint.

What’s to come in the next 35 days, when pitchers and catchers report? Your guess is as good as mine, but let’s have a bit of fun today and speculate on some folks that the Indians may not sign or trade for, but may be in play for just the same.  Just promise me that our journey will be a short one today, because my interview for the Browns head coaching job is in a few minutes…right after Terry Francona’s.

Adam LaRoche was signed on Tuesday by the Washington Nationals. That move in and of itself doesn’t have significance with regards to the Indians, but what does is the domino effect that the signing may cause. The Nationals have a strength at the corner positions and Mike Morse has become a commodity that the Nats may be trying to trade.

The Indians seemingly filled their need for outfield help when they dealt for Drew Stubbs and signed Nick Swisher. The Indians seemingly filled their first base hole when they signed Mark Reynolds. The only hole that seems to be fairly sizable is the DH slot that currently has Chris McGuiness penciled in.

Could Morse be in play for the Indians in a deal? Nothing has been confirmed, but sources believe that the Indians may have some interest.

What would the Nationals be looking for? According to sources, the Natties are asking for left-handed relievers and/or prospects to help fill their depleted farm system. The Indians don’t have any known commodities with regards to left-handed relievers. They do, however, have players like David Huff and Scott Barnes. Might they be enticing in a deal to the Nationals that would also include a couple of young, top ten Tribe prospects such as Tony Wolters and Luigi Rodriguez? Would the Nationals consider a right-handed reliever, such as Chris Perez or Joe Smith, instead of a lefty? It’s doubtful, since there are several teams that need Morse a lot more than the Indians do, and fit the Nationals terms a lot more clearly as well.

The Mariners, Rays and Dodgers may be at the top of that list, and all three figure to have better prospects than the Indians do. The Mariners and Rays have a solid prospect base with which to deal from, while the Dodgers have an abundance of starting pitching, including left-hander Ted Lilly, who could serve as the left-handed reliever that the Nationals desire. Lilly became more readily available when the cash-strapped Dodgers (yeah, right) outbid the Nationals for lefty reliever J.P. Howell.

The Yankees are also interested in Morse, and could make things difficult for the Indians, if they desire to make a move.

With that said, imagine the Indians pulling off some sort of deal that would leave their lineup intact, and include Morse into what they already have. In Morse, you get a guy that can play right field, first and DH. He then allows fluidity with Nick Swisher and Mark Reynolds, with the latter likely moving to DH, with Swisher and Morse playing right and first in some form or fashion. Like Swisher, Morse hits righties and lefties nearly the same (.292 vs. righties, .303 vs. lefties), so the lineup wouldn’t need much altering, depending on the pitcher.

The Indians could then bring in Travis Hafner in a platoon role with Reynolds for the DH position.

The Lineup would look pretty impressive:

1. Kipnis
2. Cabrera
3. Swisher
4. Santana
5. Morse
6. Brantley
7. Hafner/Reynolds
8. Chisenhall
9. Stubbs

Of course, the lineup would have some play. Here’s a potential line-up with Brantley leading off:

1. Brantley
2. Kipnis
3. Cabrera
4. Swisher
5. Morse
6. Santana
7. Chisenhall
8. Hafner/Reynolds
9. Stubbs

Morse would certainly be an extravagance at this point, but it sure is fun to at least be in the conversation. The Indians won’t likely add Morse, but you can be sure that Antonetti will be reaching out.

The Indians really do find themselves in the catbird seat as they begin to move through the month of January. Major League baseball’s new compensation rules have seemingly depressed the market for some of the top free agents. Michael Bourn, Kyle Lohse and Rafael Soriano are still unsigned because most major league teams don’t want to pay the price it will cost them. All three were offered one-year, $13.3 million qualifying offers from their 2012 teams, and all three declined the offers, which immediately tied them up with draft-pick compensation. Not only will those players cost a boatload in salary, but teams will lost their first round pick, as well as a big chunk of their draft bonus pool case based on where (and how many times) the team picks in the first ten rounds.

Six other players were offered the $13.3 million, one-year deals, and like Soriano, Lohse and Bourn, they all declined. The other six players are Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton, Nick Swisher, David Ortiz, Adam LaRoche and Hiroki Kuroda. David Ortiz (two-years, $26 million), Hiroki Kuroda (one-year, $15 million) and Adam LaRoche (two-year, $24 million) ended up resigning with their teams. It’s significant to note that both Ortiz and Kuroda signed quickly, and above or near the $13.3 million qualifying offer. LaRoche signed this week, two months after the initial offer, and for $1.3 million a year below.

Two players cost their new team a first round pick. Josh Hamilton, arguably one of the top two or three hitters in the game, signed with the Angels. He’ll cost his new club the 22^nd pick in 2013, as well as the money slotted to go there. Someone was going to sign Hamilton, but it was a journey to get there, as several teams backed off because of the compensation “strike 3” I mentioned.

B.J. Upton was the first player to sign with the Braves back in November, agreeing to a five-year, $75 million deal, which will pay him on average, $15 million a year. Upton, who’s a 28-year-old, is a five-tool player just entering his prime. He’ll cost the Braves their 28^th pick, but certainly seems worth the price.

Top ten picks are protected, so the Indians didn’t have to worry about a first round pick when they signed Nick Swisher, who also declined his qualifying offer from the Yankees. For Swisher, they gave up their second round pick, which was offset by the competitive balance lottery last July which gave the Indians a sandwich pick between the second and third rounds.

Lohse, Bourn and Soriano are still waiting, and may never receive offers even close to that $13.3 million. Bourn is hunting for a reported five-year, $80-to-$100 million dollar deal, and his agent, Scott Boras, isn’t known to back down from his offer. With Upton signing for $75 million, Bourn needs to come down significantly. While many teams are in play, few are willing to pay that much for the slick-fielding centerfielder.

Kyle Lohse is 34-years-old, and was looking for a three or four year deal in the $40-$60 million range, it’s clear there isn’t a team that is even close. He stated this past week that he hasn’t even received an offer yet. He’s just too old for those kind of years, and for that kind of cash.

Soriano just isn’t worth losing a draft pick for.

Why I mention all of this with regards to the Indians is that should the Indians get involved in discussions with any of these players, they still won’t have to give up a first rounder, and since their second rounder is already gone, they’ll move down to the third round. This could put the Indians in play, should they open the checkbook.

The Indians have been tied to Lohse and were mentioned with regards to Bourn prior to the Swisher signing. They haven’t been, nor will they be tied to Soriano, although you have to wonder if ANYONE will sign a closer. Can they sign Lohse or Bourn?

My initial reaction is no. In a best case scenario, Lohse will get a one-year, $9 million deal, and that’s a reach. It’s believed that the Cardinals are moving on, since they are loaded with young pitching. That said, would the Cardinals sign Lohse if they could get him at two-years and $20 million? I can’t imagine they wouldn’t. Let’s face facts. A best case scenario would seemingly put Lohse out of play. Nine million is just too much.

Bourn’s ceiling right now is B.J. Upton’s contract, but that ship has likely sailed. If $15 million is off the table, then what can a slick-fielder, .270 hitter expect to get in a contract? Shane Victorino just signed a three-year, $39 million deal, and Bourn is two years younger. A best case scenario for any team would be a one-year, $10 million contract, and I really don’t see that happening. Instead, I could see a two year, $24 million deal similar to LaRoche. I also don’t think the Braves would back off a deal like that, or even a little more. Again, Bourn appears to be out of play.

So here are the two questions you have to ponder:

1. Would the Indians be willing to overspend this year to add pieces that could put them over the top, but get them players on a short-term, below-market contract?
2. Will the market play out and drop Lohse or Bourn WAY below market value so that the Indians COULD afford them?

I think the answer to both questions will be a big no. This IS the land of the unknown though, so these players could still be in play come the end of the month. If they are, I can’t imagine the Indians won’t entertain the thought of trying to sign them to a creative deal. With the Indians only having to give up a third rounder should they sign another of these three players, they may even be competitive.

Is it possible that any of these free agents could sit out the year? It sure is doubtful, but you just never know.

Don’t count on it. Don’t even plan on it. Here’s the thing though: the Indians are a legitimate contender for any free agent available. Yeah, I know, say that out loud to yourself a few times. You may even believe it after the second or third time you say it.

This team’s biggest need is starting pitching, so Lohse would be the most important guy to go out and get, but he’s not the only pitcher out there.

There are some interesting candidates that are still available, and all come with various risks and some upside. There are names on here that I wouldn’t touch, and names on here that are risks, and there are also some guys up here who will either take minimum deals or minor league contracts. There are also several names not listed in the list above. Who will the Indians get, and who have they targeted? I’m sure like everyone else, they are waiting for the first few big names to drop off the list, then go from there.

I wonder if the Indians will be this fun when they actually play baseball games? It’s hard to believe that they won’t, but it’s hard to worry about the games actually being played, when the front office has been moving this team methodically towards contention. How good will they be? Well, they ARE in first place, aren’t they?

One final note here at the Corner: if you haven't had a chance to read and vote in the IBI Power Polls over the past month, please take a second to take a walk down memory lane. Once you're done reading, please vote for the best Indians catcher, first baseman and second baseman of all-time at the bottom. The polls will be fluid, but at the end of all this, Indians Baseball Insider will be creating the IBI All-Time All Indians team. Click on the links below:

Catcher

First Base

Second Base

Thanks for taking part! Alright, I'm off to my interview...wish me luck. Hey, Rutigliano's here...hmmm....

Jim is currently the co-site editor, the ATF/Carolina Mudcats/Indians/General Site Columnist, and the co-host of IPI's weekly online radio show, Smoke Signals. You can follow Jim on Twitter @Jim_IPI, or contact him via e-mail at jpete@indiansprospectinsider.com.