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Determining Value

Determining Value
April 25, 2014
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Editor's note: This is a piece I posted two years ago around this time which I updated and re-posted last year. I am reposting it today because it serves as a good way for many fans and families of minor leaguers to get a true feel for how players are evaluated and how value is determined.

I get this question every year at this time:

“So where do you think so and so will start this season? He really did well last year at…”

There is so much that goes into determining where a player goes to open a season and how/when he is moved durin the season. Obviously, a player’s talent, readiness, and upside are the three biggest components to determining who goes where at anytime of the year, but a fourth component – value – is also something to consider.

A lot of times questions like the one above are asked about a player that may be a fringe prospect or is a guy that may just be “inventory” in the Indians’ minor league system.  For as mean as calling a guy inventory or filler may sound, the reality is that over 50% of the players in the system are not considered legitimate Major League prospects and are just in the organization to help fill out rosters.

The reason for this is quite simple: spots are limited as a player moves up the minor league ladder. The Indians have close to 180 minor league players in spring training every year, and only 100 of them can break spring training at the end of March on an active roster for a full season affiliate. That leaves around 80-some players that will have to stay behind for extended spring training to get ready for short season leagues that start up in June at Single-A Mahoning Valley or rookie level Arizona.  Also, over the course of the month of minor league spring training about 20 to 30 or so of those players are released.

The spring is a tough time of the year as a lot of players are disappointed either with being assigned to a level lower than they thought they would start, staying behind in extended spring training, or being released.  The truth of the matter is that most of the opening day rosters for Triple-A Columbus, Double-A Akron, High-A Carolina, and Low-A Lake County were already mostly known going into camp, so in most cases what players did in spring training had little effect on who went where.

Vice President of Player Development Ross Atkins said so himself back in an interview with me over five years ago:

“We have a very good idea before spring training starts where guys will be heading. The offseason can change that, and certainly games or strides they make in the offseason can change that. But spring training typically does not change that, other than injury. So performance in spring training does not change those things as far as prospects are concerned.”

Like Atkins said, injuries are often what mostly leads to some reshuffling of rosters to start the season and is what opens up an opportunity for a player that may not have otherwise gotten the opportunity.  This does not mean players do not have great springs and get themselves on rosters, as this definitely happens. It is just not as often as some would think.

An example of this – and I am not saying this is what happened – could be outfielder Anthony Gallas in the spring of 2011.  He was an undrafted free agent signing in 2010 and was a long shot to make the Low-A Lake County roster to open the season, but he had an awesome spring training that year and really changed some minds which helped get him onto the Lake County roster to start that season.

But Gallas probably would not have gotten the opportunity had outfielders LeVon Washington and Jordan Casas not gotten hurt during spring training that year.  While Gallas played great in spring training, it is those two injuries that opened the door for him to get an opportunity.  He responded with a great showing in Lake County hitting .314 with 6 HR, 21 RBI and .910 OPS in 57 games, which is about as good as one can do when making good on an opportunity.

That opportunity that Gallas got in 2011 is really how it happens for a lot of players. Not just in spring training, but during the season. We are seeing it this season with D.J. Brown getting a shot in the rotation after Dylan Baker went down with an injury. Or James Roberts who is playing every day at third base in Carolina because Yandy Diaz got hurt.

A lot of players are crushed when they find out they have to open the season in extended spring training have to stay in Arizona for much longer while so many players depart for their full season destinations. But each of those players in extended spring training are essentially on call as they are but an injury away from getting a call and told they are being activated. Opportunity then knocks.

This is not to say that all players that start the season in extended spring training have little value. That’s not true. Some players may be rehabbing from injuries. Others may be too young for a full season team and need more time to develop and will play later in the year in the 56-game rookie league in Arizona or the 75-game short-season league in Mahoning Valley.  Some of the Indians better prospects such as Luis Lugo, Anthony Santander, Francisco Mejia and others last season in extended spring training, but some were quickly assigned to teams as injuries surfaced early in the season while others made good once short seasons leagues kicked up in June.

But if you pay close enough attention you can often get a good feel for the players that are more valuable and will be given more opportunities.

Obviously the first two indicators are their draft slot and the bonus they were paid. If a player was a top 10 round pick or got a large six figure bonus, that player is going to get priority and be given several opportunities early on in their career to give the organization a good return on their investment.  However, the further away from their draft year these players get, the less their draft slot and bonus have an impact on their value to the organization. A player from the 2011 Draft that was a top ten pick or got $100,000 or more is going to still get a lot of priority over say a player taken in the 2009 Draft that was a big money signing for $100,000 or more and has stalled as a prospect.

This means for the players that were signed for little as a late round pick, a senior sign, or an undrafted free agent, they have to really make some strides and prove themselves. When given an opportunity they have to jump on it and not squander it since they may only get one shot. They are long shots, but there are players that were in their place in the past that made themselves into prospects. Two such former Indians’ prospects are outfielder Brian Barton and right-handed pitcher Frank Herrmann, both of whom were undrafted players that came in and made good on the limited opportunities given to them initially.  They turned themselves into prospects and eventually made it to the Major Leagues.

Another indicator is which players skip levels. Most players go through a standard level to level progression, but when a player flat out skips a level to start a season and sticks there as an everyday player, that is a sign that the player has a higher value as a prospect. An example of this is the college players from the previous year’s draft that often flat out skip Low-A Lake County the next season and go right to High-A Carolina. Recent examples of this were third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall, second baseman Cord Phelps, and outfielder Tim Fedroff in 2009, right-hander Alex White, second baseman Jason Kipnis, and outfielder Jordan Henry in 2010, left-hander Drew Pomeranz and outfielder Tyler Holt in 2011, and Tony Wolters in 2012.

Another indicator is which players are aggressively pushed up the system at a young age. For example, right-handed pitchers Hector Rondon and Jeanmar Gomez at age 19 in Lake County back in 2007, and more recently the Indians pushed the likes of Nellie Rodriguez, Dorssys Paulino and Mitch Brown to Lake County last year and Clint Frazier up this year. Often times, but not all the time, this is a good indicator of who has higher prospect value in the organization.

Yet another indicator is which college juniors or seniors do not make it to Low-A Lake County at the start of their first full season after being taken in the draft the previous year. If one of these players do not make the opening day High-A or Low-A roster, then they must have either gotten hurt or they are inventory in the system. If you take it a step further, it is also interesting to see which of those college juniors and seniors end up returning to short season Single-A Mahoning Valley for a second straight season and do not get to Lake County the year after their draft.

Another good indicator is which players get short callups to another level. Over the course of a season you will see players be pushed up from Low-A or High-A and make a spot start or fill in as a bullpen arm or bench player for Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus. This is exciting for the player - as it should be - but also shows lower value to the organization.

And another indicator is how a guy is used. If a pitcher is in a starting rotation there is a good chance he is a higher valued arm that the organization wants to see if they can develop. A minor league reliever, especially in the lower levels of an organization, has significantly higher odds of making it to the big leagues let along Double-A because they are already viewed to be limited. When starting pitching prospects fail they are slid to the bullpen which often times pushes out a reliever who has had that role his entire time in the organization. The same applies to role players on the bench. Bench players in the minors are not developed in that right to be a bench player in the majors as the bench players in the majors are in almost every case former everyday players in the minors.

Simply put, uou almost never see the high end prospects make these quick jumps to make these short appearances in the upper levels before they go back to their original level. This is because the organization wants their higher end prospects to continue to work on their development and not leave the current level they are at until they are considered to be ready to leave for good. The second level prospects or organizational players are the ones that are often used to fill those temporary roles in the upper levels until the organization finds a suitable longer term solution from outside the organization, someone gets healthy, or an aforementioned higher end prospect is deemed ready to move up. Getting bounced around and playing at a higher level for a few games or late in a season as a fill in does not mean much, in fact, it may mean more bad than good.

Yet another determination of value is who is given a non-roster invite to Major League spring training. This mostly applies to the veterans that have been in the system and who may be at Double-A or Triple-A in the coming season. If you have been around awhile and pitched in Triple-A for a few seasons, yet do not get an invite to Major League spring training, that's a sign of lower priority and value. A great example of this was lefty Eric Berger and righty Paolo Espino, two guys who up until last year had been at Triple-A at various points for several seasons, yet were not given an invite to Major League spring trainin. Both are now out of the organization.

There are several other indicators to determine prospect value, but these are a few of the most noticeable.

Some may be surprised that stats are not necessarily a very good way to determine value in the minor leagues. Stats are the be-all-end-all when it comes to evaluating performance at the Major League level, but at the minor league level they are not. I think part of the problem is that people spend too much time looking at stats when evaluating minor leaguers, when in fact it is one of the last components viewed when teams evaluate minor leaguers on their Major League potential. Sure, they want the player to perform, but ultimately the only thing a team cares about is how their tools and abilities translate to the big league game.  The minor league stats often do not translate, it is the talent that does. The value of the stats is in helping reaffirm those subjective beliefs.

This is why so many people have a hard time understanding why so and so player that does well with their stats in the minors never gets a Major League shot or washes out at the Double-A or High-A level. Just because a player hits around .300 in the minors one season does not make him a prospect with value. What makes that player have value is how their tools and talent translates to the Major Leagues and if they have the talent to have success. Do they have significant upside? Are they maxed out as a player? Are they still maturing and expected to get much bigger and stronger? And so on.

The brutal reality of it all is that at any given time only about 30-40 players in any organization are truly viewed as legit Major League "prospects". The rest are mostly just guys on the periphery or to fill out minor league rosters so they can have teams so they can develop their prospects. Some of those "non-prospects" can jump onto the scene and become a prospect - and likewise prospects can fall into the non-prospect category - but everything is typically based on their development as a player and not because of statistical success.

All of the players that are in the minor leagues are talented and very good players. They would have never had so much success as amateurs and been signed to a professional contract if they were not. But the reality is that there is a separation in talent among the 180-200 players within an organization’s farm system, so determining their value is a key component to making an assessment on a player and their future in an organization.

Follow Tony and the Indians Baseball Insider on Twitter @TonyIBI. Also, his new book the 2014 Cleveland Indians Baseball Insider which profiles the Indians' Top 100 Prospects and more is available for sale.

User Comments

camfrommaine41
April 25, 2014 - 5:40 PM EDT
Infomative
Doug
August 26, 2013 - 12:55 PM EDT
August 24, 2013 - 6:07 PM EDT

Angels sign Aviators' Ace Drew Rucinski

By: Devon Teeple


Drew Rucinski is back in affiliated ball.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have signed Rucinski to a minor-league deal, according to the Frontier League. The Angels, who have been searching high and low for solutions to correct their once mighty bullpen, have once again signed an Independent league pitcher with the hopes that he can help them in the future.

Last week they signed Jason Urquidez and Dontrelle Willis, this week it's the Rockford Avaitors' workhorse.

Rucinski went to The Ohio State University from 2008-2011. He went 22-13 and posted a 4.69 ERA in 257 innings. He became their No.1 starter his senior season going 5-3. He left Ohio State ranked 16th all-time in wins.

Undrafted, Rucinski signed a free agent contract with the Cleveland Indians after a brief stint with the Independent Rockford RiverHawks, and began his career in Single A Mahoney. After spending time with the Arizona Rookie League Indians, Mahoning Valley Scrappers (Short-Season A) and the Lake County Captains (Full-Season A), he was released after one season.

2012 saw Rucinski come in to his own starting 15 games, tied for the team lead in wins with seven, struck out a team high 91, and lead all starters with a 3.13 ERA. This year has been much of the same.

Despite a losing record (4-6)-playing for a last place team will do that to you, he still leads all starters in innings pitched, strikeouts and ERA.

Now a member of the Inland Empire 66ers, the Advanced A affiliate of the Angels, Rucinski made his debut last Friday.

According to a 66ers press release, Rucinski showed quality, Major League calibre stuff in his first appearance. He was saddled with the loss, but struck out six, and gave up one run in six innings.

*Statistics courtesy Baseball Reference & The Baseball Cube*
Dan
March 15, 2013 - 5:23 PM EDT
This was a very comprehensive and informative article
Tony
March 15, 2013 - 1:01 PM EDT
Alan, we are going to be covering the Crushers this year......so will be nice to see Alex again. I hope all of you have been good!
Alan Kaminsky
March 15, 2013 - 12:58 PM EDT
Matt, thanks for your words of encouragement for Alex. Alex was recently traded from the Gateway Grizzlies (Frontier league) to the Lake Erie Crushers in Avon, and will be in their rotation this season. Still pushing to get another opportunity in affiliated ball.
Juan, your comments are definitely on point, and after watching last nights WBC game between the USA and DR, what a great idea.
Juan
March 14, 2013 - 8:49 PM EDT
My view a year later hasn't changed much. The evaluators involved that are the impetus of granting a huge signing bonus will ride those horses until they bleed because they refuse to admit they were wrong, and sometimes short-sighted.

How many on 25 man rosters are career "cream of the craap" .235 hitters or low velocity junkballers relying on scuffing the baseball or whatever means Harris used in Major League, the movie.

Then again, love the ones who fight back and use every ounce of baseball ability to try and prove them wrong.

Pro baseball is a business, a brutal one, and the reality is this. There are more MLB caliber players in the minors than the MLB rosters can handle, its a numbers game.

Maybe crazy Selig is right. Let's make it a real global game, MLB for US born Americans and every other country have their teams and expand the entire thing.
Matt
March 14, 2013 - 7:29 PM EDT
Alan and Steve it's great to hear from you guys on how families deal with these issues, I always rooted (and still do!) for Alex and Drew as guys with Ohio roots who were fighting an uphill battle but consistantly performed well during their time in the organization.

How much individual instruction do players in EST get? There is so much downtime for players on a full season squad, I know it would be disappointing for young guys to stay in Arizona but there should be so many more opportunities to improve with full time training than there would riding the bench in Lake County.
Dennis
March 14, 2013 - 3:32 PM EDT
Nice article on McFarland on the Orioles site a few days ago. Rondon still has not allowed an earned run in the Cubs camp. A few other ex-Indians are have good stats with new organizations. Neal's stats are much better that Hafner's in the Yankee Camp. Kotchman is hitting well in the Marlin's camp Raffey Perez has no stats for the Twins as of a few days ago
Tony
March 14, 2013 - 1:10 PM EDT
Hi Joe.....that will be interesting to see what happens with TJ. If he does return, I'd have to think he goes right into the Columbus rotation. But I have a hunch that the Indians and Orioles might make a deal so he doesn't come back. I hope not as I like TJ, but just think something might get done.
joe
March 14, 2013 - 1:00 PM EDT
where do you think mcfarland goes if he is tendered back to indians?
Tony
March 28, 2012 - 7:13 PM EDT
De Los Santos is interesting. Nice arm and kind of had scouts buzzing about him in spring training when I was there. I think there is a chance he opens in Lake County, but he may open in extended and then go to Mahoning Valley in June. He is a project as he is a converted catcher.
sgt espinal
March 28, 2012 - 7:02 PM EDT
how do you see right handed pitcher xavier de los santos this year?
Tony
March 25, 2012 - 11:16 AM EDT
John, I hear you. I wish that performance truly was as valued at the minor league level as it is at the major league level. But like with college, the stats/performance don't always mean a lot. You obviously want a player to play well, but when it comes down to it a great majority of the evaluation process comes down to projectability. What kind of player do they think the player can be. I've talked to so many scouts and almost all are in unison in saying that the first 1-2 years they don't even pay attention to the numbers a player has.....they pay attention to the tools and talent. Also, how those tools, talents and abilities progress or change over the course of a season (when they get a 2nd look) or the following season. It's a tough business and I know a lot of kids that get released are left wondering what they did wrong (or didn't do). Unfortunately, in most cases, it simply was because the organization did not believe they had the talent to succeed in the higher levels or that they had plateaued as a prospect and that their time and resources needed to move onto another player.
John
March 25, 2012 - 10:51 AM EDT
Tony, what bothers is me is when a player shows up to ST, and outperforms the invested-in players, and makes great impressions on his instructors, but the daily's get ignored.

How odd is it for a player to get released in ST and his daily coaches and instructors didn't even find out about it until the player told them himself?

Getting released while doing everything right with solid results makes absolutely no sense regardless of draft slot. It goes against the game of baseball, meaning score runs, but not against the business and politics of it.

No expert ever wants to admit they are wrong.
Tony
March 25, 2012 - 10:40 AM EDT
Thanks John. Yeah, it is tough to get a true sense of a player in just a year and limited time. Unfortunately, there are only so many spots as every year 40-50 new players come in via the draft/internationally. That's why only a select few players get priority status and get a longer leash.

Also, while some of these guys only get 250 ABs or whatever and are let go, it should be noted that the organization already views them as filler when they sign. They are there to fill in for 1-2 years and not much is expected....a very select few surprise and become more....but typically the evaluation process prior to the draft by the scouts has already projected what kind of value they have to the organization, and that mostly sticks when they sign. For example, a guy like Matt Curtis who was just released. He signed as an UDFA last summer.....but was never viewed as a prospect or to stick long. They don't need 100+ innings to evaluate him and determine if he can be more as they pretty much already have a good idea when they signed him. He was signed simply to fill innings for an affiliate....something that is done every year by every team. Close to half of the guys from every draft are viewed that way where they are more just filler and non-prospects (though as I said, some break through and make themselves a prospect).
John
March 24, 2012 - 3:03 PM EDT
Very accurate article. I feel awful for the kids who really never got a long enough look by their affiliate, and long enough to me means at least one full season the year after their Draft year(or short-season).

I would find it difficult to evaluate a player in a limited sample size, say around 250 plate appearances in short-season or A ball especially after the college player just came off 60 games using a metal bat, but as stated in the article by Tony, unless their is a measureable financial investment in the player, the leash can be short, and often unfair.

Giving a college player a full season regardless of draft slot/bonus is usually the norm, especially when the player makes the adjustment and closes out his draft year strongly, and when the affiliate doesn't, I can tell you the nighmare feels like you woke up in an alternate universe.

Still hoping and praying for a great kid
Tony
March 18, 2012 - 1:16 AM EDT
Alan, good to hear Alex is still trying to make his way back to affiliated baseball. I wish him well. Part of the game I hate is the politics sometimes involved where some players undeservedly get unlimited opportunities while others get maybe one shot. It would be nice to base it all on performance, but with baseball the reality is that most of the evaluation is projection-based. One of the most inexact sciences around....always some big misses there!
Alan Kaminsky
March 17, 2012 - 11:09 AM EDT
The Kaminsky's can definitely relate to this. Our son Alex, signed as a UDFA, had a stand out career at Wright State University, an incredible 2010 rookie season at Mahoning Valley, he was a 2010 NY Penn League all-star, and was promoted to Akron and Lake County at the end of 2010. He could not have done anything more to prove he belonged with the organization, that he loved growing up as a kid in NW Ohio. But he was still let go at the end of 2011 spring training. So ya, it is definitiely not based on performance. (still hard for me to understand)
He is currently playing independent league baseball, trying to work his way back to an affiliated organization.
Tony Lastoria
March 12, 2012 - 11:56 PM EDT
Thanks Steve. This is the harsh reality of the game. Almost every one of these players all their life has been told how great they are and that they will have success.....but unfortunately in the minors a great many experience failure for the first time and have a hard time with it. On top of it, they see others get more opps or have to deal with the politics of being a lower round pick or not being a bonus baby. Every player at some point or another will get an opportunity....just some opportunities are shortlived while others get several chances.
Steve Rucinski
March 12, 2012 - 11:05 PM EDT
Again another great article to help me/us understand what these young athletes are dealing with.
Tony
March 12, 2012 - 2:29 PM EDT
Yes, guys in Double-A or Triple-A with established minor league careers or former top picks or prospects always have a shot to come back with a new org. Unfortunately, for the guys who never got out of Single-A and maybe have 2-3 years of playing experience and a low draft/prospect standing during their time in the organization, it is tough for them to get another opp with a ML org. They almost always go the independent ball route but then retire later in the year once they realize how hard it is to get back with a ML org.
Dennis
March 12, 2012 - 2:17 PM EDT
Do not be disheartened, if you are released or waived. Neil Wagner was waived off the Akron roster a few years ago and last year pitched in September for the A's and is still on their 40 man roster.

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