Corner of Carnegie and Ontario: DH's, Ubaldo and the kids

It’s an amusing day here at the frigid corner of Carnegie and Ontario, as stories of fake internet girlfriends and “shocking” admissions of PED’s have been floating through the air like frosted, Lake Erie snow. With ESPN covering more drama than Maury Povich, the Cleveland Indians have been busy saying hello to their fans via the Tribe Fest this past weekend. The chance to interact with several members of the Tribe’s 40-man roster brought thousands of fans to Progressive Field.

It seems odd to find the Indians PR-machine churning out goodwill while the rest of the sports world seems mired in spewing 10 cent gossip about athletes. I received several e-mails over the weekend from friends, family and fans of all ages pumped up about the Indians, showcasing the knowledge that doing good things can work like dominoes when it’s all going in the same direction.

It’s just good to be on the good side for once, while everyone else in the world is worrying about their fake dead girlfriends…god rest their souls.

Now, about the Browns and LeBron James…er…well…let’s talk some Tribe…

The DH position leaves a lot to be desired on paper right now, but it’s not like the Indians rolled out massive production from the DH in the past several years. Here’s a look at the past five seasons:

You can see that the five-year average for the Indians isn’t anything special from a position that you’d like to see big offensive numbers. Just for a matter of reference (this is by no means a scientific or sabermetric comparison), I took the #5 rated DH based on OPS over the past five seasons, figuring that if the Indians could manage those numbers, it would be considered a successful season (the Indians highest finish was sixth over this span of time, in 2010 and 2011).

My immediate thoughts are that the Indians numbers, which were never better in any given year, aren’t far off in the big picture. Granted, 2012 was a bad season with regards to the Indians and the DH position, but I think that it’s safe to say that as bad as the Indians have been since their last winning season in 2007, last season shouldn’t be the trend.

What do the Indians plan on doing with regards to the DH-position? If the roster stands as is, I would have to believe that the Indians plan on utilizing a time-share. Candidates for the position in a time-share are likely going to be Carlos Santana, Nick Swisher and Mark Reynolds.

Santana is a given to play DH now and then to give him time of from playing behind the plate. While you can argue all day long about whether or not the Tribe’s starting catcher can provide enough value, I think it’s shortsighted to think that he’s going to be prone to the struggles he went through through the middle of last season, in particular after his concussion. Santana’s numbers post all-star break were solid, and while I doubt you’ll ever see the kid hit .300, his peripheral numbers should continue to improve.

There’s also opportunity for Santana to play first base, getting Marson or Gomes into the game, and giving a guy like Aviles a chance to DH. Santana is going to catch his fair share of games, but he should have some opportunities to play some first and DH out of necessity.

Nick Swisher playing DH really will depend on who else makes the club. With Drew Stubbs and Michael Brantley playing center and left in some form, a player like Ryan Raburn, Ben Francisco, Yan Gomes or Chris McGuiness would have to prove to be a factor in spring, which would potentially allow Swisher to move to DH on occasion. I could also see a guy like Mike Aviles playing a game or two in the outfield, in a similar fashion to Jamey Carroll a few years back. I don’t, by any stretch, believe that to be a regular occurrence.

Reynolds moving to the DH would again depend on the players that ultimately make up the utility slots on the 25-man roster after the spring. McGuiness and Gomes would be the guys that could move him to the DH here and there, but like Swisher, I don’t see that being something that happens regularly.

The real factors at the DH could be some of the infielders. With Mike Aviles in the utility role, the Indians could get him four starts a week by rotating him between short, second and third, with an occasional start in the outfield. This would allow Jason Kipnis and Asdrubal Cabrera the opportunity to DH on occasion as well.

In a perfect world, a guy like Ryan Raburn would return to the form of his 2009 through 2011 seasons in which his OPS was between .729 and .891. The problem with banking on that is that his numbers have dropped pretty consistently since the 2009 season, and with Raburn turning 32 this year, it would be unrealistic to think that the trend, at this point, is one that’s going to reverse.

There’s also a lot of buzz that Chris McGuiness is a guy that’s ready to take over the DH role with regularity. I just don’t see it that way. Is he an interesting player? Sure. He’s definitely got ability, but you always have to question a “prospect” that turns 24 in his first year at Double-A. I’m not counting on him at all, and you could see the Indians returning him, or working out a deal with the Rangers to keep him and slot him in Columbus.

There are a lot of other wildcards here, including the potential for Ben Francisco or Zeke Carrera to make the team. I don’t see either happening. You could also see the Indians signing a guy like Travis Hafner as a part-time player from the left-hand side of the plate. He would be an interesting guy in a three-game-a-week role, and would make a nice platoon with some of the switch-hitters and righties mentioned above. A guy like Raburn making the team could make that possible.

So is any of this optimum? No, and I still think there is a possibility that the Indians have a move or two to be made to bring someone in. Terry Francona has talked about line-up stability, so if he finds someone he likes, this whole DH-by-committee could go out the window, but right now, it doesn’t appear that there is another clear option.

At some point, I have to tackle the Ubaldo Jimenez question, so I suppose now is as good as any. The Indians rotation, as much as it pains me to say it, depends on Jimenez figuring something out to get it together. If you read this column with any regularity (heaven help you), you know my thoughts on the enigmatic righty, but I’m an optimist, so I always hope for the best.

The facts have been laid before you in the past. Jimenez was bringing it over 96 MPH when he was pitching well with the Rockies. Last year, he was barely over 92. Can he get it together?

I just don’t see it. He throws 20 different pitches, and he seemingly uses an endless array of deliveries. In other words, he’s every pitching coach’s dream. Mickey Callaway will be his third pitching coach in as many years, and while you never know when lightning will strike, I just don’t see it happening with Jimenez.

So, what does that mean? The Indians just can’t afford to leave him in the rotation if he’s as bad as he was last season. Could there be a situation where Jimenez could be moved to the bullpen? Boy, if that’s the only option, I suppose the Indians could take it.

A lot of folks have been discussing Brett Myers potentially being moved to the pen should Trevor Bauer make the team at some point. If you look at the rotation as it stands, it should look like this: Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Brett Myers, Zach McAllister and Scott Kazmir/Carlos Carrasco. While Myers is the clear candidate should Kazmir and/or Bauer pitch into the rotation. Perhaps that’s the wrong way to look at it.

What if Kazmir’s velocity is back up, and he proves to be durable and he makes the team? What if Carlos Carrasco is sound, and ready to pitch a full gambit of innings. What if Trevor Bauer dominates in the spring, and forces the Indians to put him on the roster. If Jimenez struggles, and two of the previous three occur, the Indians could slot Jimenez in the bullpen.

Now, I’m not a fool (well…). I understand that his mechanics and his velocity don’t lend itself to the pen. I also know that his salary isn’t conducive to the pen either. Of course, any of the three potential rotation fillers would offset his bullpen salary since they’d be making relative peanuts.

I know…Ubaldo in the pen likely means really bad things overall, but perhaps Francona won’t waste time if Jimenez is pitching like garbage. Perhaps the pen, where he could focus on 10 pitches instead of 20, and where he could perhaps unleash a bit more, is the fix that he needs to make him a bit more palpable to this team.

Yeah, that would be an epic fail of a trade, but at the end of the day, hasn’t it been that very thing already? I don’t see the Jimenez to the pen being a realistic move, but anything is a better option than the Jimenez as the starter we’ve seen over the past 1 ½ seasons.

I’m bullish on Carlos Santana in 2013. I’m not really sure if I’m in the minority here, or just in the vocal minority, but there has been a lot of discussion about Santana reaching his ceiling already. That’s just idiotic. This kid is about to turn 27, and he’s not even close to his prime.

I know a lot of folks devalue Santana based on his position. Of course, if he’s raking at the catcher position, he’s an added value. That said, I’m not in the crowd that believes he’s not worth the money should he be playing first or DH if he’s right for a full season. My point is that it’s time to start looking at Santana as an offensive weapon.

During the second half of the season, Santana was more than solid. His slash was .281/.389/.498, with 13 homers and 46 RBI. He walked 45 times, while only striking out 41 times. He was efficient, effective, and everything that he needed to be.

With an improved line-up around him, there’s no reason to think that he’s not going to be perched to break out. Is he the perfect player? No, but everything is in place for Carlos Santana to become a superstar. This offense should be improved, and it should be more balanced. Sure, Reynolds, Swisher and Stubbs are going to add a bit of an air conditioning element that we haven’t seen in awhile, but the center of this offense will be Santana this year. Swisher and Reynolds will be in place to protect him, so don’t be surprised when the Indians catcher is mentioned as the best in the game by year’s end.

Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall have become complimentary players on this team, which is the way that it should be. Last season, the Cleveland Indians had to lean on Kipnis, and for a bit in the middle of the year, Chisenhall as well. This is the big leagues, but I can’t help but remember the 2010 season in Akron, when Chis hit .278 with 17 homers and 84 RBI in 117 games, and Kip hit .311 in 79 games, with 10 homers and 43 RBI.

The big leagues are certainly different than the minors, but both have proven that they can play at the big league level. Kipnis clearly had a lot more on his shoulders in 2012 than any “rookie” should. Chisenhall was just catching fire when injury put him down.

I have to believe that with new veteran leadership in Nick Swisher coming on board, along with other veterans such as Mark Reynolds and even Drew Stubbs, that Kipnis and Chisenhall should be able to find their slots on this team. Kip will be at the top of the lineup, either in the lead-off role or as the #2 hitter. Chisenhall will find himself in the bottom of the line-up, adding bulk to a formerly weak spot on the team.

I do think it will be interesting to see where Francona puts Kipnis, who he should view as the Indians’ version of Dustin Pedroia. The year Pedroia won MVP, he was the team’s regular #2 in the batting order, but also spent some time leading off. The year prior, Pedroia batted first, second and ninth. While that’s not optimum, the lineup does take an interesting turn with Kipnis ninth:

1. Brantley
2. Cabrera
3. Swisher
4. Santana
5. Reynolds
6. Chisenhall
7. Aviles/DH
8. Stubbs
9. Kipnis

I don’t see that happening, as they’ll want Kipnis in the heart of the order, but it is an option, especially if they find a way to improve that DH slot.

What should the expectations be for a kid like Kipnis? He can hit .300, and hit 15-20 homers, and drive in 90 runs or more, and I don’t even think that’s a stretch. Consider this: he hit .233 in the second half, with three homers and 27 RBI after hitting .277, with 11 homers and 49 RBI in the first half. Now he’s got a lineup that should provide support, is healthy, and should be able to focus on his game, and not carrying a failing team.

What will Chisenhall do next year? He was hitting the ball well in June when he went down, batting .286, with two homers and eight RBI. No, I don’t expect him to put up those kinds of numbers in 2013, but if they take care of him, there’s no reason to think he can’t hit .260-.270, with 15 homers and 60 or so RBI. Those numbers are on the low end of what I think he’ll do as well, but I don’t think anyone would be upset if this is the player that shows up in 2013.

Now, are there questions? Sure, they are young players, so there are always going to be questions. Here’s the thing though…these kids have pedigree. Kipnis is the lock here, as I think he’s going to produce. Chisenhall is the wildcard, and I don’t think it will be his play. I think it will be his health that is the question.

There is no mystery as to what the weakness of this team is going to be. No, the lineup isn’t perfect, but the talk of it being horrible because of the strikeouts is utterly ridiculous. While I agree that there will be days when I want to hurl my collection of Cleveland Indians’ sundae mini-helmets through my T.V. screen, there will also be days where this team will decimate their opponents.

The weakness is that starting pitching (I know, I’m the resident rocket scientist here at IBI).

1. Justin Masterson—Can he replicate good starts, or will he continue to pitch with the consistency of bad oatmeal over month-long stretches?
2. Ubaldo Jimenez—See above
3. Brett Myers—Can he pitch over 200 innings or close to it at the age of 32 after relieving a season, or will his drop in velocity predicate an epic-Derek Lowe-like disaster?
4. Zach McAllister—Can he replicate his solid performance from 2012, or was that a one-hit wonder?
5. Scott Kazmir—Is his velocity back up to 93 as has been mentioned, or is that bloated, or just a precursor to more injury?
6. Carlos Carrasco—Does he have stamina, and when will the Indians let him go?
7. Trevor Bauer—Why did the Diamondbacks let this kid go for so little?
8. Corey Kluber—Sure, he can throw, but can he pitch?

When the eight pitchers vying for a spot in the rotation have questions, you are asking for trouble. Ask the 2012 Indians.

Is there a fix? Mickey Callaway should have a say in all this, and he could right the ship with some of these starters. Some will step up, and some will falter, but the Indians clearly need to bring some other “talent” in. Jair Jurrjens seems to be a guy most mentioned, and it’s based on his upside and youth.

Jurrjens was horrible in 2012, but at 27, he has potential upside. When Atlanta gives up on a pitcher, you take notice, and the fact that he hasn’t signed leads me to believe there’s something out there that’s not been said. It could be as simple as Jurrjens wanting to show off a bit in the WBC for the Netherlands, but that’s a potential risk as well. He’s a high ceiling guy though, with the current information available, and it’s clear that he’s a low cost guy at this point.

There are a bunch of other guys out there, but the point is clear that regardless of who they bring in, there will be too many question marks. If history serves, this just doesn’t bode well for the Indians chances of winning in 2013. Perhaps Mickey Callaway can change these fortunes. We shall see.

Make sure you take a look at the IBI Power Polls. I’m not trying to hawk the work as being the best writing of all-time, but I honestly don’t know that I’ve ever had more fun writing since I started doing this fifteen years ago. The history of this club is fairly impressive, and to touch upon some of the greats, and the quirks and the fun (and misery) and the interesting stories is really what baseball is all about.

Make sure you vote, comment, and just have some fun with the history of this team. Don’t be afraid to e-mail any ideas that you have for Power Polls to jpete@indiansbaseballinsider.com. These things can cover anything.

Best Indians Third Baseman of All-Time

Best Indians' catcher of all-time

Best Indians' First Baseman of All-Time

Best Indians' Second Baseman of All-Time

All-Time Indians Thusfar:

Catcher: Victor Martinez

First Base: Jim Thome

Second Base: Nap Lajoie

Third Base: Al Rosen

On a final note, it’s a blast to write here at IBI, and I appreciate the vast opinions of all the contributors to this site, whether it be a writer, or it be a reader. I’m good friends with many of the writers here, and it’s truly a job of passion for all of us. I don’t agree with everyone, and some days, not with anyone. Point being is that a day talking Indians’ baseball is a good day.

18 days until Pitchers and Catchers report folks…

Jim is currently the co-site editor, the ATF/Carolina Mudcats/Indians/General Site Columnist, and the co-host of IPI's weekly online radio show, Smoke Signals. You can follow Jim on Twitter @Jim_IPI, or contact him via e-mail at jpete@indiansprospectinsider.com.