2014 Draft: Mock Draft 2.0
Everyone else is releasing a mock draft, and now that we are a month into the college baseball season, here is mine. With each pick, I look at the team's recent history and project who I think they will take based on that. I will do quick hits for the mock, rather than long explanations. I do explain the Indians picks because this is an Indians site, and I figure people care more. The top two are unchanged since my first mock in October and about six picks stayed the same throughout.
While I am adding the compensation round picks for this mock, I am not including picks for unsigned players, as there is a chance they won’t sign and those picks won’t happen.
1. Houston Astros - Carlos Rodon, LHP, NC State
-Top player, would have gone first last year, power lefty, get the hype train ready
2. Miami Marlins - Tyler Kolek, RHP, HS
-Marlins kept Meek who lives in OK, love OK arms, Kolek from Texas but is top HS arm in draft
3. Chicago White Sox - Tyler Beede, RHP, Vanderbilt
-Beede is pitching well, cut down on his walks; strikeouts are up, putting full package together
4. Chicago Cubs - Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina
-Hoffman has been awful, but Cubs can take the risk, need pitching depth, Hoffman has ace upside
5. Minnesota Twins - Trea Turner, SS. NC State
- Twins have a lot of talent, but no one who looks like future SS, Turner has 80 speed and can stick at SS
6. Seattle Mariners - Aaron Nola, LHP, LSU
- Mariners are a safe drafting team, Nola dominant to start year, high floor player, safest bet of any pitcher
7. Philadelphia Phillies - Jacob Gatewood, SS, HS
-Phillies love to draft athletes, they also like guys who big time power, Gatewood is both in one package, huge boom or bust
8. Colorado Rockies - Brady Aiken, LHP, HS
-Rockies take BPA, right now that’s Aiken who came out hitting 97 this spring, could go top three, my top prep arm
9. Toronto Blue Jays - Alex Jackson, OF/C, HS
-Jays draft prep players early; Jackson is a top five to some, but consensus top 10 player, viewed by some as top prep bat
10. NY Mets - Grant Holmes, RHP, HS
-Mets are another team that goes prep, Holmes is a little small but throws hard, I'm keeping this pick from last mock
11. Toronto Blue Jays - Nick Gordon, SS, HS
-Another prep player for Jays, Gordon is rising, looks like a sure fire SS, which always rise on draft day
12. Milwaukee Brewers - Erick Fedde, RHP, UNLV
-Brewers have often grabbed college players, Fedde a great value right here, most places in top ten
13. San Diego Padres - Kyle Schwarber, C/1B, Indiana
-San Diego often grabs power bats, Schwarber has the power to work in Petco, built like Pronk
14. San Francisco Giants - Brandon Finnegan, LHP, TCU
-Giants often like safe bets, and they aren’t afraid of smaller hard throwing pitchers, worst case could be great closer
15. Los Angeles Angels - Touki Toussaint, RHP, HS
-Angels tend to draft prep player, Toussaint has as much upside as any prep arm, Angels minors a mess and needs big time upside
16. Arizona Diamondbacks - Sean Newcomb, LHP, Hartford
-Big lefty, if he had pitched better would be a top 10 guy, Zona great at developing talent, could be very good, another pick staying the same
17. Kansas City Royals - Luke Weaver, RHP, FSU
-Kansas City has been focused on adding arms, Weaver pitching very well, could be a 2/3 type
18. Washington Nationals - Derek Fisher, OF, Virginia
-Nationals take biggest name on board, Fisher is a guy who is a top five player to some, plus bat and plus power, injury issue just arose
19. Cincinnati Reds - Michael Gettys, OF, HS
-Reds tend to go with prep players; Getty’s has speed to share and great bat speed, future CF if hit tool develops
20. Tampa Bay Rays - Bradley Zimmer, OF, San Francisco
-Zimmer is a future CF, fast and big at 6’5”, if you think power is coming then he is a top 15 pick, upside potential
21. Cleveland Indians - Max Pentecost, C, Kennessaw St
-Indians love to draft up the middle talent. They have tried for years to add depth at catcher; maybe they have it in Wolters and Meija. Teams can never have enough depth and having too many good offensive catchers is a great thing. Pentecost has average skills but sure bet to stay behind the plate and be an above-average hitter.
22. Los Angeles Dodgers - Luis Ortiz, RHP, HS
-Dodgers are notorious for drafting high school arms; Ortiz has plus command and good secondary stuff, safest bet of high school arms, I'm keeping this one the same
23. Detroit Tigers - Nick Burdi, RHP, Louisville
-Burdi could make the majors next year, sits in upper 90’s, hits 100, reliever who could be an All-Star, another pick staying the same
24. Pittsburgh Pirates - Dylan Crease, RHP, HS
-Big time velocity, Pittsburgh graduated a ton of arms time to replenish the system, Pirates seem to have a velocity fetish
25. Oakland A’s - Michael Cederoth, RHP, San Diego St
-Moved to bullpen, throws upper 90’s, if he was a starter he could go higher, worth trying him as a starter first
26. Boston Red Sox - Braxton Davidson, OF/1B, HS
-Limited defensively, most likely 1B, but good hitter with solid power upside, sliding a bit
27. St. Louis Cardinals - Chris Ellis, RHP, Ole Miss
-Cardinals tend to go with college guys, Ellis had a good Cape season, big frame, pitching very well to start year, another pick staying the same
(The next picks are the compensation picks which are still in the first round)
28. Kansas City Royals - AJ Reed, 1B, Kentucky
-Would go in top 10 rounds as a left-handed pitcher, showing massive power this season, helium candidate
29. Cincinnati Reds - Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, HS
-Reds have had luck with prep pitchers, Foley is a guy people are divided on, pitching well to start season
30. Texas Rangers - Michael Conforto, OF, Oregon State
-Rangers often grab the top sliding talent; Conforto to some is a top 15 guy, maybe top 10
31. Cleveland Indians - Ti’quan Forbes, SS, HS
-There are some Lindor qualities with Forbes. Both were extremely young guys in their draft class and both have the skills to stay at short. Forbes might grow out of shortstop, but every skill for him could be above-average. I am sure they saw him last year when scouting Silento Sayles. One of my personal favorites, but he fits what the Indians look for in players and position.
32. Atlanta Braves - Mac Marshall, LHP, HS
-Braves love to draft in-state, Marshall is a good athlete and polished for his age, you can never have enough lefties
33. Boston Red Sox - Justus Sheffield, LHP, HS
-Boston taking another upside flier here, Red Sox tend to really value left-handed pitching, Sheffield could go much higher
34. St. Louis Cardinals - Cobi Johnson, RHP, HS
-Johnson feels like a Cards pick, dad is Blue Jays pitching instructor, good athlete, mid 90’s stuff
(The next picks are the competitive balance picks, are still in the first round)
35. Colorado Rockies - Alex Verdugo, OF/LHP, HS
-Two-way guy, ultimate position depends on the team he ends up on, top talent left on the board
36. Miami Marlins - Kodi Medeiros, LHP, HS
-Medeiros has fallen because people think he's gimmicky, lefty with upside, Miami can take risk with three firsts
37. Houston Astros - Matt Chapman, 3B, Cal State Fullerton
-Having a great year, one of the best right-handed bats in the draft, going to end up at 3B where his power is adequate
38. Cleveland Indians - Forrest Griffin, LHP, HS
-Griffin is a name on the rise. He is a huge lefty at 6’5”, but right now is more of a soft tosser. I think his worst case is as a LOOGY. The hope is that that with his size, once you get him with more coaching and fix him mechanically he might gain some velocity. He has the feel for three pitches and I think he has a good potential to be a mid-rotation starter.
39. Miami Marlins - Michael Chavis, 3B, HS
- Rising player, good power potential, might have to move off 3B, generating some buzz early
40. Kansas City Royals - Scott Blewett, RHP, HS
-Come on his name sounds like "blew it," big arm, mechanically needs some help, throws low 90’s
41. Milwaukee Brewers - Kyle Freeland, LHP, Evansville
-A good Cape season brought Freeland back on the map, looks like a back-end lefty, fits the Brewers mold for talent
So there it is, 41 picks, and three of them belong to the Indians. I was able to find three guys who all fit the Indians approach. It is an approach that makes sense because there is just more value in up the middle talent, and if a player struggles there, they can be moved elsewhere without any issues. A catcher, shortstop, and a left-handed starter are all positions that carry a lot more value than really any other positions.
Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffmlbdraft, or email him at firstname.lastname@example.org
Correct, if the Tigers sign Drew our Ubaldo pick moves up 1 spot. Most other teams rumored to be in on him though wouldn't move our pick up (Boston, Yanks, Mets)...
Wil Crowe is another one of those later round picks that decided to go with education over starting their professional career. Crowe chose to go with the USC Gamecocks.. As a freshman, he's made four starts with a microscopic ERA. He's a good one that got away.. but will be draft eligible again in two years..
Aaron Brown decided to stay at Pepperdine..his 11th round draft position said not much in the way of a signing bonus, so, he'll be available again in just under three months.. He's a two way guy that pitches (sub 3 ERA in a handful of starts) and hits (third on the team with a .340 BA)..
Each of the three guys mentioned have a chance to be decent prospects. Only Quinn has the making of an elite prospect..
Same questions pertaining to Heath Quinn?
Who I really covet are Weaver, Newcomb, Ellis, Burdi, and Cobi Johnson. I think Weaver could still add to his slender frame. Newcomb is just a big power LH - doubt he's there. Ellis I think is moving up - might pitch himself higher. Burdi will move fast, possible AS CL qkly. I could see Cobi Johnson getting a bit stronger / filling out a bit more, potentially adding 2-3 mph on his FB.
Kyle Schwarber is a future 1b/DH/C type - maybe similar to a Ryan Doumit type player. I could see him falling to 31-38, tons of talented HS arms could push some of these "limited" players down. I do think Schwarber will be a good hitter, maybe Kendrys Morales type numbers (recent yrs) at best. Position is limited though.
Bradley Zimmer tall, slim LH CF could develop some power. Would be a nice pick, but I'd prefer any of the pitchers I mentioned above including Nick Burdi. Maybe Burdi would sign ($500K) underslot, with the suggestion he'd have a chance at a Sept call up.
Another thought, with three picks the Tribe might have the opportunity to do something similar to what the Royals did last yr. That is, grab a player they like high at a reduced price and then grab a cpl high cost players that are tumbling (S.Manaea). The Tribe will certainly have more options with three high pks.
I'm no expert and is the reason I enjoy reading Jeff's analysis of the draft.
I don't believe that Newcomb will last to #21 either. I'd bet against it. A guy that I could see falling is Trea Turner. I'm not sure I'd even pick him at #21.
Also, Fisher's injury that Jeff mentioned, a broken hamate bone, will keep him out of action for 4 to 6 weeks. He then has to rehab. He'd have maybe a month to re-establish his value. If he fell to #21 I'd wave at him as he continued to fall. I don't really like Schwarber, I don't think he has the bat speed to hit pro fastballs. He's hitting like crazy but I think he's a mirage. Also, no way he sticks at catcher. Thome was better at 3B than Schwarber would be at catcher.
Also would love to grab Zimmer at #21. Anyone seeing vids of this kid with a bat would forget about any of the HS bats. As Jeff mentioned the power isn't there yet but this kid has some serious upside.
You see the dilemma here? I've mentioned maybe four guys that could be around at our 1st pick; Jeff had to decide on one. He's trying to do the mock the way he believes it will happen. I'd have Kolek. Turner, & Gatewood all much lower, based on personal opinion, but Jeff's slots are more realistic. His predictions are much more probable but they're not what I would do. I enjoy reading mocks but I'd be shitty at producing them.
A cpl HS I like...
I'd love to see the Tribe land 2 of: Newcomb, Weaver, Ellis, Fedde, Finnegan, Burdi with picks 21 / 31 plus an upside HS arm like Johnson / Kopech at 38.
The time and effort that went into making poor suggestions in this mock draft is fair game to be commented upon provided the tenor of the discussion is not personal or derogatory. Taking editorial license regarding a "DREAM DROP", that is, "...Who from the top 20 could fall to the Indians? as queried by Walter.." would start with # 20 pick and progress upward. TBH, any one from # 20 to # 14 (excluding Fisher) could be considered by the Indians with their pick at # 21. It was "not a manipulation" nor was the answer framed in that manner. Selecting Newcomb in that spot, just fits as the BPA, IMHO and why I suggested it. He comes from a cold weather area, so his exposure to the majority of baseball will be limited.. but at 6'5" and pushing 250 with a FB that sits around 94-95 and touches 97 MPH, this isn't a kid that needs to be put on seven different programs to bring his physical maturity and physique to an elite level. He also features what has been called one of the best WIPE OUT SLIDERS in the prep ranks. It is good enough right now to start making comps as lofty as rivaling Steve Carlton's. It is already a ML level plus pitch. The only thing holding him back is a quality third pitch, but he has flashed a changeup that could become a solid to spectacular third pitch.
In short.. this is the kind of pitcher the Indians should be focusing on as the BPA and their first player selected.
Not a catcher.. who had a good Cape performance as his benchmark for taking him in the first round.
Not a Shortstop...either . The Indians are LOUSY with shortstops everywhere and at every level.
I didn't like your # 21 pick for the Indians. I could live with the other two picks, but neither one says "upside" like first round picks should. If the Indians are going to sustain a winning team, these picks in THIS draft, especially, have to provide a chance to impact the next three years. A soon to be moved from SS to some other position SS and a soft tossing loogy don't get the job done.. and if that pains your tender sensibilities regarding the opinions rendered.. get over it.. grow some thicker skin..
See you at Salt River Fields one week from today !!
player available. That is even more true the further removed from the #1 overall pick in the draft you get.
I did not mean to offend you although either I or someone already has. I said I understand going for the top players just if you have guys around the same skill level I would prefer to go with pitching.
Its obvious you have put alot of work into this and it shows. You were right last year and I did not mean to make you think I was trying to be critical of you. Its obvious you have done your homework and hell your probably right. Not everyone is going to always agree 100 percent though on almost anything baseball related. Just because I want pitching does not mean I doubt your opinion. Sorry if you took it personal.
Ortiz, Marshall, Chavis would be a great draft. Michael Kopech in Round 2. Also, Sean Reid-Foley has major helium & might be the 2nd HS pitcher selected.
I study film, I do research, and I talk to people. If you don't like it don't read it
If we draft 3 position players in the 1st round I'm fine with that provided the Tribe thinks they were the best players/fits at those spots. Don't "need" to look at drafting two pitchers. Could draft three pitchers and I'd be fine with it too though.
Walter.. Sean "Nukem" Newcomb would be the dream drop.. Also, passing on Burdi or Cederoth would appear to be a mistake.
Taking a catcher that was "...thought to be a sleeper of sorts coming out the prep ranks, there were teams out there thinking of Pentecost as a potential steal beyond the top five rounds of the draft..." in the first round makes this a BAD IDEA. The time to save draft pool money, which is what this mock draft suggests, for an above average arm/ average bat catcher makes this a BAD PLAN.
Come on Jeff..If this is you caring, you need to get a new team. Are you secretly a Cards or A's fan? The guys you've mocked for them are both studs in the making.. You can do better than an okay talented catcher for the first pick in a mock draft...